Chapter 3

Defensive Plans

According to Phil Read's rules, there are three things to count: 

• Declarer's distribution. 
• Declarer's high cards. 
• Declarer's tricks. 

The bidding suggests hand patterns and point count, so do it after each bid.  If the opening is 1NT, the most likely patterns are 4-4-3-2, 4-3-3-3, and 5-3-3-2 with the five-card suit being a minor.  5-4-2-2 and 6-3-2-2 are possible, and there might be a five-card major.  Assign opener a point count.  I use 15.  This is their bidding, so you can't trust them completely.  Opener might have 14 points or 18 points or a singleton.  If responder bids 3NT, I expect two or three in each major, but zero to four are possible.  I assign 10 points.  I am on lead with eight points, so I give partner seven.  Dummy appears and I adjust my estimates.  As high cards appear from partner and declarer, I reduce their remaining count.

The most concentration is required around the time of the opening lead.  You need to update your guesses.  Many players pick up their private scores and enter the contract.  If they write the bidding, and use this in analyzing the deal, this may be okay.  Otherwise, it is a distraction, and they are stealing time from their partner.

When partner opens a weak two and they eventually declare, you know declarer's length in each major to within one card.

• If a player fails to open 1NT and later shows a hand in his notrump range, assume his pattern is not a notrump pattern.  Partner fails to overcall at the one-level.  Either he does not have a five-card suit, or he is short on points.
• Partner fails to open a weak two and then overcalls.  He is short on points, or his distribution is out of range, or his suit lacks high cards.
• Pattern from a pass.

  South	West	North	East
  1	Pass	1	1
  Pass

  Since South did not bid 1NT, he does not have a spade stopper.  Since South did not double, he probably does not have three hearts.  A tentative guess on pattern is 3=2=3=5 and count is 12-14.

• North does not negative double.

  South	West	North	East
  1	1	1NT	?

  I, as East, have three hearts.  I infer that hearts are 4-3-3-3 around the table, and South has four hearts.  If I, as East have only two hearts, I guess the hearts are 4-4-3-2, South and West have four, and West is under range for a takeout double.

• South's pattern from a notrump rebid.

  South		North
  1	Pass	1	Pass
  1NT

  South has less than four spades, two or three hearts, and less than four diamonds.  This suggests a 4-3-3-3 or 5-3-3-2 pattern.  Of course, South might have a stiff heart, be four-four or four-five in the minors, or have six clubs.

The opening lead tells a lot about declarer's distribution.  I assume my lead rules given in the next chapter. 

• Partner leads the deuce of diamonds and there are only four diamonds between you and dummy.  Declarer has five diamonds.  Also partner has at least one point in diamonds. 
• Partner leads the nine of diamonds and you see no higher diamonds.  Partner has the Q-T-9, K-T-9, or against notrump the A-T-9.  You have located at least three of declarer's high cards. 
• Partner leads 9, and you see the T.  Or partner leads the T and you see the J.  What you and dummy don't have, declarer has. 
• Partner opens 2 , you bid 2 , they eventually declare spades, and partner leads the heart deuce.  You know declarer's heart length exactly. 

South	West	North	East
	1NT	2 (a)	3
3	4	4	Dbl

(a) Spades and a minor.  You, East, the doubler, and have a 4=6=1=2 pattern.  Yes, you have four spades.  Spades must be 4234 around the table.  You lead a heart, dummy is 3=3=2=5, and declarer trumps.  Yes, their bidding was insane.  Unless declarer has seven diamonds, his distribution is 4=0=6=3.

Partner opened and played a 12-15 1NT.  In the first five tricks, he shows the A-K-J and A.  Defenders know he has zero to three points left, and should defend double dummy.

Partner leads a three, and you do not see the deuce.  Though declarer should hide the deuce, they seldom do.

The line of play chosen by declarer helps eliminate many patterns.

Another way of learning the distribution is signaling count.  There are many tells before you see partner's first card in a suit.  I am not a great fan of showing count, and signal only when partner needs the information.  Often it is too late in the play of the hand for this count information to be of value.  It may be that the only defensive count you can trust are the clients cards playing with a pro.  Most other defenders would just as soon false card.  Interestingly, their leads are more honest than their signals.

During the auction: 

• Get hand patterns. 
• Get point count. 
• Think about what you will lead. 

As opening leader, both before and after the lead: 

• What should I lead? 
• What is declarer's (partner's) hand?
• Has partner sent a message on the first trick? 
• What should the defense plan be?

Third seat questions: 

• What is declarer's reaction to the lead and the dummy? 
• What is partner leading from?
• What does his lead imply about other suits? 
• What is declarer's hand? 
• Do I try to win this trick, or do I send a message? 
• What message? 
• What should the defensive plan be?

We have bid and raised a suit, and partner leads something else.  The possibilities are

• He wants a ruff. 
• He is leading from a sequence. 
• He has the ace of the bid suit. 

I offer the following choice.  The bidding is complete and I will tell both defenders either their partners specific distribution or specific high cards.  The mechanism could be an announcement that the defenders have five spades, eight hearts, six diamonds, and seven clubs; or the defenders have the A-K,   Q-J, J, and K.  Which do you choose?

Treat this either as a general question, or discuss how your answer depends on the auction and the level of the contract.  If declarer has a Yarborough, you probably want to know distribution.  If they have "bid-beautifully" to reveal their distribution, then you want high cards.  A novice would say:  "What's distribution.  Tell me the high cards." 

How often do you or partner need to know either distribution or high cards?

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