| 1NT | Pass | 2  | Pass |
2  | Pass | 2  | Pass |
| 3 | Pass | 4 | All Pass |
| Home | Contents | Chapter 9 | Chapter 11 | 03-20-2006 12:06:29 |
Gib, the double-dummy solver, used here, will determine the number of tricks won after different opening leads followed by perfect play. Gib "perfect" is not real world "perfect." Expert "perfect" would be the percentage play allowing for different distributions and location of honors. According to Gib, expert "perfect" makes mistakes in both offense and defense. Decisions by real defenders and real declarers made early in the play are less likely to be Gib "perfect" than those made late in the play.
The most accurate lead tables would be created for each possible auction, they would use many more deals in building the tables, and they would even consider the defenders vulnerability. What follows is the summary of a generalized lead table built for a 1NT opening, no overcalls, and a responder who does not indicate a long suit other than trumps.
In most of my analyses, it does not matter on whether you are playing matchpoints or IMPs. You need more deals to positively assert that a given lead is better at IMPs. At IMPs, a single 10 or 12 point swing determines whether you win or lose.
You lead top of nothing and that picks off partner's queen. In the Gib world, the only cost is timing. In the real world it costs a fraction of a trick. It is less than half a trick because declarer may not touch that suit. Gib scores top of nothing too high.
Gib does not like trump leads. I add this to Gib's objection to a passive trump lead. When you or partner gain the lead, it is not too late for the crucial switch. It is in one of two suits. You have missed the discovery play of the opening lead in the non-constructive suit.
Gib rates ace leads, unsupported or from ace-king, too high. You have to do the right thing at trick two, and some of the time, that is not obvious.
Gib likes to lead from touching honors. I have been following this advice and feel good about this recommendation. However, the next time you are on lead, you have to decide between the other honor, low in the suit, or another suit.
Gib doesn't like fourth highest. However, fourth highest as well as top-of-nothing are discovery plays useful in later defensive decisions, and can delay the crucial defense decision to late in the deal.
Gib recommends short suits against suit contracts. Gib is happy to lead a singleton king. That is an exposed card in Gib. You probably do not want to lead a singleton queen either.
Gib's least favorite suit length is three cards. My argument to explain this is long-winded.
Then, of course, there is the problem of bias in the deals chosen for the experiment. If I don't set the problem correctly, or you apply the results to a different problem, it could be garbage in - garbage out. Except in building the lead table, I have payed close attention to the bidding. However, people do not bid the way I think they do, and some even bid the way I think they should rather than the way I think they do.
Be critical of these results. I would be disappointed if you are not. They provide a starting point for choosing an opening lead.
In building the lead tables, I did not pay attention all of the information from the bidding. I did not want to limit the results to an auction such as:
1NT Pass 2 Pass 2 Pass 2 Pass 3 Pass 4 All Pass
or alternately this precise auction:
1NT Pass 2 Pass 2 Pass 4 All Pass
In these examples, fourth seat did not double 2 . In one case
we know declarer is four-four in the majors, and in the other
case we know he is not.
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