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| Home | Contents | Chapter 13 | Chapter 15 | 03-20-2006 12:06:29 |
I look at specific hands to see if there are hands where the generalizations fail. So far, I have not found any. 1008 hands are dealt. There are 252 deals for each vulnerability.
Steve Robinson, Washington D.C. Standard , uses what many call Woolsey against all notrump ranges. If you have a strong, balanced hand you pass. Unbalanced hands overcall aggressively, and advancer bids conservatively. A page 229 pass-out example is:
1NT Pass Pass ?
This is a sneaky way of saying Always Balance. He asserts that you should have a singleton (or void), and all of his examples have a short suit.
East-West One-on-One Matchpoints (Percent) vs Vulnerability None N-S E-W Both Average E-W Pass 5.75 11.51 23.02 31.94 18.06 AB Woolsey 94.25 88.49 76.98 68.06 81.94 Deals 252 252 252 252 1008 E-W Made 133 147 147 147 574 EW Tricks/Deal 7.62 7.67 7.68 7.71 7.67
Robinson is so right it hurts. Matchpoint scores are higher than the generic six-cards plus results of the previous section, which means it is more right to bid on this hand than the average hand. (The make percentage is lower.) On the average deal, the probability that a six-card suit will win tricks is better.
A Robinson argument is that you must have a singleton or void. So I create A, B, and C, where B and C do not have a singleton.
A B C
The "to bid" percentage is about the same with A, B, and C.
Tricks per deal decrease from 7.67 to 7.60 and then 7.52.
Bidding wins decisively with these hands. Bidding does not
require a short suit. Hand C scores slightly better at
matchpoints. Second seat is also playing Woolsey. With C,
second seat always has 15 or more points, and did not overcall
because of wrong pattern. The only possible West distributions
are 4-3-3-3, 4-4-3-2, 4-4-4-1, 5-3-3-2, and not 4-4 in the majors. West
hands are useful at spades, and Hand C is useless in defense. In
the simulation the notrump opener does not have a five-card
major. (Real world opponents are not this reliable.) Opposite
A, second seat has four or five hearts, and therefore less than
four spades. (If this was a was 4-4 DONT problem, I would assert that West must be 4-3-3-3 or 5-3-3-2.) In these examples, North-South
made 1NT over 80% of the time, and East-West made 2 over 50% of
the time.
Balancing with a six-bagger does not require points. Without thinking, we would say that points and tricks go together, and without points you should pass. Here, tricks are almost independent of East's points. To add a datum point, I ran deals where East has a 6-3-2-2 pattern, and 15 or more points.
Points versus Tricks Deals West East E-W Tricks Points Points Total Hand C 1008 17.44 0.00 17.44 7.52 Hand B 1008 14.67 3.00 17.67 7.60 15 + points 1008 4.29 16.01 20.30 8.06
In the 15-plus deals, Gib says defend if North-South are vulnerable — the Gib West knows to lead a spade. I looked at 48 of 15-plus deals, and there were three deals you would like to be in game plus two lucky deals that made game. I conclude you would like to bid game on 6% of the deals. In the Yarborough (hand C), the fourth through sixth trumps are entries that allow winning finesses through South. In the 15-plus deals, you may not get to dummy to take a finesse, and if you do, the finesse loses.
The next three hands are suggested by a hand on page 235 of Robinson's book:
D E F
Bid on all three. Tricks per deal are 7.86, 7.60, and 7.80 for D, E, and F, respectively. Best matchpoints were for Hand F. I attribute the better score to a combination of a more suitable dummy and the fact diamonds cannot be run when you defend.
Continuing to push the limits, I try
G H I
East-West One-on-One Matchpoints (Percent) vs Vulnerability None N-S E-W Both Average G AB Woolsey 83.93 78.77 57.54 47.22 66.87 EW Tricks/Deal 7.49 7.53 7.40 7.31 7.43 H AB Woolsey 88.89 78.37 56.35 53.57 69.30 EW Tricks/Deal 7.44 7.45 7.19 7.16 7.31 I AB Woolsey 89.48 91.47 50.79 54.37 71.53 EW Tricks/Deal 6.67 6.85 6.75 6.90 6.79 Hand I Doubled AB Woolsey 46.43 55.56 26.59 30.56 39.78
The number of successes has decreased. Results with a five-bagger are more sensitive to points. If you know East-West are "crazy" on Hand I and double, you can be an educator.
I conclude that Always Balance means exactly that.
I can imagine the following committee action. East bid with
6 5 4 3 2 3 2 5 4 3 2 3 2. West hitched. Are you sure?
Well, I didn't notice it, but he must have. The committee, in
its infinite wisdom, and as experts, votes 5-0 against East-West.
The experts are wrong to say bidding with this hand is bad
bridge.
Larry Cohen is into overcalls with 4-4 patterns (4-4 DONT.) Page 200 of Following the Law, The Total Tricks Sequel:
A "friend" bid 2 over 1NT at unfriendly colors in second seat
and got a good result. Larry asserted he would bid in fourth
seat at any vulnerability. I am sure Cohen's mind-set is
Always Balance.
East-West One-on-One Matchpoints (Percent) vs Vulnerability None N-S E-W Both Average AB4-4 DONT 67.26 62.50 44.84 32.14 51.69 E-W Made 74 84 102 112 372 EW Tricks/Deal 6.85 6.90 7.16 7.29 7.05
Draw your own conclusions.
Going for the trash record: 5 4 3 2 4 3 2 3 2 5 4 3 2.
If they don't double, a not vulnerable bid is barely okay.
East-West win 5.88 tricks. Doubles will wipe them out. North-South win 9 + tricks at notrump almost half the time. With four-four patterns you want cards divided so that East has entries to
take finesses through the 1NT bidder.
Results from a 14-table, 2208-board pair game where a second-seat or fourth-seat defender bids in one of the systems:
East-West Matchpoints (Percent) vs Vulnerability System None N-S E-W Both Average Opt DONT 55.00 52.94 53.31 50.31 52.89 4-4 DONT 53.64 51.98 50.82 51.53 51.99 AB45Dont 51.76 51.25 52.86 50.18 51.51 AB44Dont 55.00 52.94 51.93 45.74 51.40 Opt Woolsey 51.48 50.23 52.57 50.68 51.24 Opt Brozel 52.43 51.55 51.07 49.44 51.12 ABBrozel 52.82 51.64 51.61 47.50 50.89 AB Wool 51.48 50.23 52.57 49.27 50.89 Brozel 51.18 51.05 49.45 51.25 50.73 4-5 DONT 50.57 50.11 50.03 51.51 50.56 5-3 DONT 50.67 50.21 50.03 51.22 50.53 Woolsey 50.08 49.83 49.01 52.44 50.34 Hamilton 47.62 48.54 46.46 51.28 48.47 E-W Pass 26.26 37.51 38.27 47.66 37.43 Deals 552 552 552 552 2208
This is a first try, so I leave most of the analysis to you,
or to a later day. The interference froze North-South. People
are more sophisticated than that, and do not surrender to the
interference. The "optimized" and Always Balance "treatments scored best. Hamilton and E-W pass are at the bottom of the list. I am not sure where Hamilton loses, but Hamilton has to play 3 with a club one-suiter and bids 2-major with 4-major and 5-minor. In all defenses, East-West made over half the time. If East-West passed in a defense, then, except for a few 5-3-3-2 deals missed by 4-4 DONT, North-South made over half of the time.
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