THE GREATEST HOCKEY PLAYER EVER??
Ever since Wayne Gretzky retired, I have been getting deluged with E-Mail
about who was greater: Orr or Gretzky? If we are going to compare these
two players, who played different positions in vastly different eras, then
we begin our analysis with the most accurate measure of a player's overall
strength: Plus/Minus Ratio.
Plus/Minus Ratio is a number (positive/negative) that is added to, every
time a player's team scores (at EVEN STRENGTH) and that player is on the
ice. Conversely, if the player is on the ice (at EVEN STRENGTH) and the
other team scores, a point is subtracted from the player in question.
Although not perfect, Plus/Minus (+/-) Ratio is the only statistic in
Hockey that accounts for a players offensive AND defensive abilities.
What follows is a tremendous analysis of Bobby Orr vs. Wayne Gretzkey vs.
Gordie Howe vs. etc... This fine piece of work comes to us from Ian Wilson.
Ian can be reached for comment or questions at: gobruins@fundy.net
Bear in mind that no defenceman's stats should stack up against a forward.
Bobby was on the ice in every key defensive situation the Bruins faced.
They didn't start to keep +/- until 1967-68, Bobby's second season.
Bobby's career +/- is 597
Wayne's career +/- is 518
Bobby's best year was +124, Wayne's was +98. Bobby never had a minus
season, Wayne had 7 minus seasons.
Bobby's +/- seasons
1967-68 +30
1968-69 +65
1969-70 +54
1970-71 +124 (all-time record)
1971-72 +86
1972-73 +56
1973-74 +84
1974-75 +80
1975-76 +10 (10 games played)
1976-77 +6 (20 games with Chicago)
1977-78 (Did Not Play)
1978-79 +2 (6 Games played with Chicago)
I don't think Gretzky is the best player ever, not even close, but one
thing you have to credit the guy with is durability. When you view his +/-
stats over the length of his career, it's not all that good, and doesn't
really compare with other forwards. For instance, going into this year
Wayne was at +541 in 1417 games, for an average of +0.38 per game. Bobby
was +0.91 per game, FAR AND AWAY THE BEST EVER. Larry Robinson is next
closest at something around 0.54 per game. Wayne's numbers don't compare
with a lot of very good scorers, who also happened to know there were two
ends of the ice, players like Mike Bossy and Bryan Trottier, Rick Middleton
for instance, who are around 0.45 per game.
Bobby's +124 in 1970-71 is an NHL record, and the .91 +/- per game is
almost twice the nearest guy, Larry Robinson, so that is a record too.
There will be comparisons, but for the most part I believe most people who
saw both players play agree that Bobby was the best. Gretzky is a great
player, but he's not Bobby Orr. I don't even think he was Gordie Howe for
that matter. The game is different today, and Wayne had the advantage of
playing when goals were scored at a rate twice as high as when Gordie
played. To give you an idea, Wayne retired at 38, having scored 12 goals
this season. Gordie Howe had three more seasons in which he scored over 30
goals after he turned 39. I happen to believe that the most amazing "stat"
in hockey is that Gordie Howe finished in the top five in scoring for 21
straight seasons. Wayne did it for 8 seasons. In Gordie Howe's final NHL
season, at AGE 52, he scored 15 goals.
I doubt anyone will ever have the effect on hockey that Bobby Orr had.
Proof is in Boston itself. When Bobby came into the league there was one
American playing, Tommie Williams, and he was from Minnesota. Once Bobby
started playing in Boston, rinks started cropping up all over Boston. Kids
began playing hockey because of Bobby Orr. Today the Boston area is the
number one prime spawning grounds for NHL talent. Before Bobby: NOBODY,
after Bobby you have Keith T., Jeremy Roenick, Kevin Stevens, Tony Amonte,
etc... I counted last year when Bobby turned 50 and I believe that Boston
and surrounding area is now the largest per capita producer of hockey
players in the NHL. Each and everyone one of those guys learned to play
the game on rinks that were built because of Bobby Orr.
If, in 10 years time, kids start coming into the NHL in massive numbers
from L.A., then you can put Wayne's contributions in the same league as
Bobby Orr's, but that isn't going to happen.
Wayne was a great player, no question. He gave great interviews, and he
seems to be a really nice guy, but calling him the best ever is like
calling a DH in baseball the best ever player. Americans understand the
game of baseball much better than hockey, and they realize that a DH is a
one dimensional player. When people talk about the best ever they talk
about Babe Ruth, or Willie Mays, they don't talk about Hal McRae. Americans
do understand point production, and there is no denying Wayne has amazing
point totals.
Some more +/- analysis is provided below. These stats are through the end
of last year (1998-99). Most guys I will mention are retired.
Player All-Time +/- +/- Per Game
Larry Robinson 730 .53
Bobby Orr 597 .91
Wayne Gretzky 541 .38
Ray Bourque 508 .36
Bobby Clarke 506 .44
No one else has a plus minus of over 500!
(In brackets I will list players career +/- that are not listed above)
Plus/Minus Per Game Career Leaders:
Player +/- Per Game
Bobby Orr .91
Larry Robinson .53
Mike Bossy .51 (381)
Bobby Clarke .44
Serge Savard .44 (460)
Denis Potvin .43 (460)
Mark Howe .43 (400)
Dallas Smith .40 (355)
Guy Lafluer .40 (453)
I also took a look at Points per Game + +/- per game to get a look at how a
player contributed to a teams winning or losing. Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky,
Mario Lemieux and Mike Bossy are the only players whose totals are greater
than 2.00.
Player PPG +/-PG Total
Gretzky 1.97 .38 2.35
Orr 1.39 .91 2.30
Lemieux 2.01 .18 2.19
Bossy 1.50 .51 2.01
To get an idea just how far ahead of other players those guys are, the next
closest combined total for any player is Guy Lafluer (1.20 + .40 = 1.60).
-Ian Wilson Ian's E-Mail