First, for each team on N.D.'s schedule next year, I list the average percentage chance given of winning the game, surrounded by the high and the low estimate and then the Sagarin ranking of that team at the close of the 2001 schedule. (N.D.'s Sagarin ranking at the end of last year was 42, which -- oddly enough -- made it the highest ranked team with a losing record.)

Maryland

Consensus: 60%
High: 75%
Low: 45%
Sagarin: 10

Purdue

Consensus: 80%
High: 95%
Low: 70%
Sagarin: 51

Michigan

Consensus: 50%
High: 60%
Low: 40%
Sagarin: 18

Michigan St.

Consensus: 65%
High: 80%
Low: 50%
Sagarin: 38

Stanford

Consensus: 80%
High: 90%
Low: 60%
Sagarin: 14

Pittsburgh

Consensus: 85%
High: 100%
Low: 75%
Sagarin: 45

Air Force

Consensus: 80%
High: 100%
Low: 60%
Sagarin: 91

Florida St.

Consensus: 30%
High: 50%
Low: 10%
Sagarin: 9

Boston College

Consensus: 75%
High: 85%
Low: 60%
Sagarin: 25

Navy

Consenus: 100%
High: 100%
Low: 95%
Sagarin: 166

Rutgers

Consensus: 95%
High 100%
Low: 85%
Sagarin: 152

U.S.C.

Consensus: 65%
High: 85%
Low: 50%
Sagarin: 37

First, some overall observations. Everyone agreed that F.S.U. would be the most difficult game and the Navy would be the easiest. This seems rational given where the games are played and the histories of those teams. Besides Navy, the only other real "gimme" on the schedule appears to be Rutgers, assuming that the collective estimates match reality. Given that those two teams had by far the worst Sagarin rankings last year, this is probably a sensible assessment. (Note, Sagarin ranks a good number of Division I-AA and II teams, so even though there are only 115 Division I-A teams, both Navy and Rutgers were ranked well below 115th. According to Sagarin, the best non-Division I-A team was 15-1 I-AA Montana, which ranked 57th, right between Colorado St. and East Carolina, teams that played in bowls).

After F.S.U., the next most difficult game is seen as being Michigan. In one sense, this seems to overvalue Michigan because the game is played at N.D. and Michigan's Sagarin ranking of 18 is less impressive than two teams we take more lightly: Stanford and Maryland. However, it clearly was a down year for Michigan last year, and given the history of close games between the schools, rating the contest as a toss-up does not seem irrational.

Three other games are rated as being fairly difficult: Michigan St., U.S.C. and Maryland. All three of these games are played away from N.D., though Maryland is being played in New York, and having attended several N.D. games against service academies there, I know that there will be a strong contingent of N.D. supporters, so this is no worse than a neutral field. But given how good Maryland was last year, treating this game as being a difficult one makes sense. M.S.U. of course is on the road, and East Lansing is a place that N.D. has had difficulty, though I'm hoping we're over that with the coaching change. U.S.C. is also on the road and this game is also rated as being fairly difficult, as is appropriate for a traditional rivalry game.

Pittsburgh, Air Force, Stanford, Boston College and Purdue are a group of games that we collectively consider to be fairly easy: between 75% and 85%. In a sense this shockingly undervalues Stanford, the team with the 3rd best Sagarin ranking among our opponents, but the game is at N.D. and, well, we've got their coach.

Overall, the average chance of winning each game next season works out to an average 72%, which would be 8.65 wins. Thus, the most likely scenarios are seen as being either 9-3 or 8-4. Again, assuming the accuracy of the estimates, the chance of N.D. going 12-0 next year is 1.1%. Without having calculated all the numbers exactly, these probabilities would produce a fairly smooth spread, with 9-3 and 8-4 being roughly equal and the highest probabilities, 10-2 and 7-5 being small but distinct probabilities, 6-6 and 11-1 being in the neighborhood of 2% each, and 5-7 and 12-0 being in the neighborhood of 1% each.

If we take the games group by group, here is our collective assessment of N.D.'s record:

Easy (Navy and Rutgers): 2-0

Fairly easy (PU, BC, AF, SU, Pitt): 4-1

Fairly difficult (Md., MSU, USC): 2-1

Difficult (FSU, UM) 1-1

This, of course, would produce a record of 9-3. If the record were to be 8-4, a plausible switch is either to go 0-2 against the difficult teams or 1-2 against the fairly difficult teams.

One of the difficult things about N.D.'s schedule most years is the lack of "easy" games. If one looks at the group of "fairly easy" games (which we each collectively rate at having about an 80% chance of an N.D. win), the chances of running the table in these games are relatively small. If a team plays 5 games against teams that it has an 80% chance of beating, the chances of suffering one or more losses in that string is quite high: almost 68%. N.D.'s schedule is also somewhat unfortunately arranged next year, as we play our two easy games very late, when they might well do more for confidence and cohesiveness early in the season. At least, however, we don't face the difficulty of attempting to open the season on the road against a team of Nebraska's quality when that team already has two games under its belt

Let's look at the 2002 schedules of last year's "Final Four" in college football. After each team I list its Sagarin ranking last year

Nebraska

Aug. 24: Arizona State (61)
Aug. 31 Troy State (79)
Sept. 7 Utah State (106)
Sept. 14 at Penn State (44)
Sept. 28 at Iowa State (40)
Oct. 5 McNeese State (108)
Oct. 12 Missouri (72)
Oct. 19 at Oklahoma State (59)
Oct. 26 at Texas A&M (32)
Nov. 2 Texas (3)
Nov. 9 Kansas (93)
Nov. 16 at Kansas State (21)
Nov. 29 Colorado (8)

Average Sagain: 56

Miami

Florida A&M (182)
at Florida (2)
at Temple (92)
Boston College (25)
Connecticut (156)
FSU (9)
at West Virginia (83)
at Rutgers (152)
at Tennessee (4)
Pittsburgh (45)
at Syracuse (13)
Virginia Tech (19)

Average Sagarin: 65

Colorado

vs. Colorado St. (56)
San Diego St. (104)
U.S.C. (37)
at U.C.L.A. (16)
Kansas St. (21)
at Kansas (93)
Baylor (109)
Texas Tech (29)
at Oklahoma (7)
at Missouri (72)
Iowa St. (40)
at Nebraska (5)

Average Sagarin: 49

Oregon

Mississippi St. (68)
Fresno St. (22)
Idaho (163)
Portland St. (119)
at Arizona (66)
at U.C.L.A. (16)
Arizona St. (61)
U.S.C. (37)
Stanford (14)
at Washington St. (12)
Washington (24)
at Oregon St. (47)

Average Sagain: 54

Notre Dame's average Sagarin ranking of opponents is 55 next year, which would be right in the middle of the other schools. Notre Dame, however, plays only three teams outside the top 51, while Nebraska plays 7, Miami, Colorado and Oregon each play 5. Moreover, these teams frontload their schedule with some of their easier games (though Miami does play Florida in a monster game the second week), while Notre Dame's schedule gets easier at the end of the season. On the other hand, all except for Oregon play at least two opponents with a stronger Sagarin ranking than N.D.'s strongest opponent (F.S.U.), though this assumes that the Sagarin rankings are predictive of how difficult these opponents will be next year. In a loose sense this is certainly true (for example, Florida seems likely to be a tougher opponent next year than Idaho or Florida A&M), but at the highest levels probably doesn't tell you much (for instance, most seem to agree that Michigan (18) will be a tougher opponent than Maryland (10) or Stanford (14) next year).

In the end, the good news, I suppose, is that N.D. has at least its share of games that can be won, the bad news is that it has more than its share of games that can be lost.