These may or may not turn out to bear any resemblance to reality for the 2004 season, but here are some numbers to toss into the wind.

My basic assumption is that N.D.'s offense will be somewhat better this year. I expect the running game to look about like it did in 2002 (with Grant as the feature back we averaged about 140 yards per game) and total offense to be about 375 yards per game. Diedrick's offenses at Stanford averaged about 422 yards per game (roughly 142 on the ground and about 280 in the air). While I don't expect the passing game to come up to 280 per game, something around 230 or 235 seems like a reasonable possibility.

Starting in 2001 (Davie's last year) our total offense was 285 per game, in 2002 it was 315 per game, last year it was 335 per game, so 375 per game this year would not be an unthinkable leap.

In 2002, N.D.'s defense gave up about 16 points per game and in 2003 it was about 26 points per game. My guess is that it will probably hit about the median of those two this year: 21 points per game. The schedule is about the average of the two years (2003 was a harder schedule). Note that this might be accomplished even if the defense doesn't really play any better than it did in 2003.

In 2002, N.D.'s offense gained 300 or more yards 8 times. N.D. was 7-1 in those games (losing to B.C.) and the Irish defense gave up just over 13 points per game in those games. In 2003, N.D.'s offense gained 300 or more yards 9 times and gave up an average of just over 21 points per game in those games. N.D. went 5-4 in those games. So, obviously, decent offense helps the defense – a lot. In 2002 the defense was about 3 points better in the games in which the offense could do something and in 2003 the defense was 5 points better. In the 7 total games for 2002 and 2003 in which N.D.'s offense has hit the 375 yard mark, N.D. was 6-1 (only loss to B.C. last year) and the average score was 32-13 in favor of N.D.

If N.D.'s offense can gain 375 yards on average, then probably it will hit the 300-yard mark in all but a game or two and should hit the 375-yard mark in about six games. Projecting, then, from the 375-yard games, N.D.'s offense would probably, then, be about one touchdown better than it has been (so about 28 ppg instead of the 21 ppg that it the average of the last two years).

How would such a team do, then, against next year's schedule? If we stick with my assumptions that the offense will be a touchdown better and the defense will hit the average of the last two years, here is how the games project, from those opponents that we have played at least once in the last two years.

N.D. 40, 410 yards
B.Y.U. 14, 303 yards

Michigan 31, 380 yards
N.D. 20, 275 yards

N.D. 26, 366 yards
M.S.U. 20, 317 yards

N.D. 24, 325 yards
Purdue 20, 271 yards

N.D. 51, 495 yards
Stanford 7, 256 yards

N.D. 24, 335 yards
Pitt 10, 289 yards

N.D. 23, 427 yards
B.C. 20, 265 yards

N.D. 35, 429 yards
Navy 23, 271 yards

N.D. 21, 303 yards
U.S.C. 45, 580 yards

So, this would be a record of 7-2 against the 9 opponents that we play in 2004 that we played in 2003 or 2002. The two unaccounted-for are Washington and Tennessee. Of these two, Washington looks to be a quite winnable game while the road contest at Tennessee probably would be a competitive affair if N.D. were to play about as described.