You may have noticed that USC has blown us out the last 3 years. But I forced myself to look back at the drive charts from those games. Here are how the first few series started in the three games.

2002

USC: 6 plays, 33 yards: Punt
ND: 3 plays, 9 yards: Punt
USC: 5 plays, 26 yards: Missed FG
ND: 8 plays, 63 yards: FG (3-0 ND)
USC: fumbled KO, recovered by ND
ND: 4 plays, 6 yards: FG (6-0 ND)
USC: 5 plays, 17 yards: Punt
ND: 3 plays, 5 yards: Punt
USC: 9 plays, 93 yards: TD (7-6 USC)
ND: 3 plays, 9 yards: Punt
USC: 11 plays, 66 yards: FG (10-6 USC)
ND: 1 play (interception)
USC: 1 play (interception)
ND: 2 plays, 2 yards (interception)
USC: 4 plays, minus 9 yards: Blocked punt returned for TD (13-10 ND)

2003

USC: 8 plays, 80 yards: TD (7-0 USC)
ND: 10 plays, 73 yards: TD (7-7)
USC: 4 plays, 80 yards: TD (14-7 USC)
ND: 7 plays, 43 yards: TD (14-14)

2004

USC: 6 plays, 26 yards: Punt
ND: 13 plays, 92 yards: TD (7-0 ND)
USC: 11 plays, 46 yards: FG (7-3 ND)
ND: 12 plays, 73 yards: FG (10-3 ND)
USC: 3 plays, 3 yards: Punt

So, in 2002 at that stage ND had 92 yards and 10 points and USC had 226 yards and 6 points. In 2003 ND had 116 yards and 14 points and USC had 160 yards and 14 points. In 2004 ND had 165 yards and 10 points and USC had 65 yards and 3 points.

If you didn't know anything else about the teams other than seeing these early drive charts, you'd probably guess than in the 2002 game it was likely to be an ugly close affair that USC would win if they'd quit making mistakes, that the 2003 game would be a Pac 10 style shootout with the last team having the ball winning and that the 2004 game would be one that ND would dominate.

What happened instead? In 2002, USC outgained ND 384 yards to 17 for the rest of the game and outscored ND 34-0. In 2003 USC outgained ND 391 yards to 163 and outscored ND 31-0 for the rest of the game. In 2004 USC outscored ND 38-0 for the rest of the game and outgained ND 423 yards to 135.

There's no denying that USC has a lot of talent and many individual match-ups that favored them. But if it were a matter of having superior individual talent across the board at every position then it seems unlikely that ND would have been able to play with USC, every time, for the better part of the first half.

It's not that ND wasn't prepared for the game. Probably they came out and showed some things early on that gave USC trouble. In 2003, for example, JJ tore off some big runs right up the gut. In 2004 both Grant and Walker ran pretty well even through the 3rd quarter, before our OC decided that running trick plays might help.

But the fact of the matter is that USC was able to adjust during the game. Against our defense, they were able to eventually isolate the individual match-ups that favored them (Bush on LB's, for example) and on defense they were eventually able to solve whatever was working for ND early on. And ND never adjusted back.

Now, ND's staff is hardly the only one to fall victim. Stanford, for example, led USC at the half, but then USC adjusted and shut Stanford out for the rest of the game (allowing, I think, just 1 or 2 first downs in the second half). Oklahoma marched right down the field on their first drive and scored but then looked helpless thereafter.

But it's not an impossible task to adjust as USC does. One coach who has done it every year has been Tedford at Cal. In 2002 Cal led USC 21-17 at the half and almost pulled the game out losing 30-28. The next year Cal's defense gave USC trouble all day causing Leinart to throw to Williams even though he was in bracket coverage. Cal beat USC in overtime, outgained them 469 to 376 and Cal TB Echemandu ran for 147 yards. In 2004 Cal let USC jump on them 10-0 but then came back and lost 23-17 when Cal's final drive ended deep in USC territory. Cal outgained USC 424 to 205.

While Cal has good talent, their 2002 and 2003 teams were not exactly world-beaters, going 7-5 and 8-6. The fact is that Tedford and his staff could match Carroll and Chow's adjustments and very few other staffs could.

Now, it might be that even with top level coaching that we wouldn't have beaten USC the last three years. Perhaps too many individual match-ups would have favored USC. But those games didn't have to be blowouts.

If Weis and Co. can make adjustments as well as Tedford has, there's no reason that we can't at least hang with USC for the whole game.