When Willingham was hired, one of the things that worried me initially was whether his style of offense would fit N.D. N.D., of course, has been primarily a run-oriented team over the years, particularly in its good years. Not having paid close attention to Stanford in recent years, I had the impression that they threw the ball all over the field and didn't run much. While this might make for entertaining games, it doesn't necessarily translate into victories. I want to march "onward to victory" -- not onward to 300-yard passing days.
I was pleasantly surprised to find that Stanford had one of the most effective rushing attacks in the nation in 2001. Stanford averaged about 4.4 yards per carry and 201 yards per game, numbers that compared quite favorably with N.D.'s 3.9 and 188. Stanford also had a devastating passing game, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and about 250 yards per game. In fact, one of the keys to Stanford's success this year was that the Cardinal forced its opponents to attempt 100 more passes than it did. N.D.'s comparable figures were a pitiful 5.1 yards per attempt and a bit over 100 yards per game -- numbers that were literally at the bottom of the 115 Division I-A teams last year.
On the other side of the coin, in N.D.'s good years, while it hasn't necessarily throw the ball often, it has thrown it effectively. Consider what were probably Holtz's four best teams: 1988, 1989, 1992 and 1993. The 1988 team, of course, won the national championship, the 1989 and 1993 teams both finished second and had reasonable claims to the national championship (particularly the 1993 team which lost only once and beat the crowned national champion, FSU), and the 1992 team was once beaten, once tied, and tore apart a pretty good Texas A&M team in the Cotton Bowl. The 1988 team averaged 4.8 yards per carry, and while only throwing about 15 times a game averaged an impressive 8.4 yards per attempt. The 1989 team averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and threw only about 14 times per game but averaged 7.9 yards per attempt. The 1992 team averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and threw 23 times a game for an average of 8.2 yards per attempt. The 1993 team averaged 5.1 yards per carry, and threw about 17 times a game for an almost-unbelievable 10.0 yards per attempt. (McDougal and Faila gave N.D. some of the best quarterback play in its history that season, combining for a completion percentage of 63.5 with 10 touchdowns between them and only 5 interceptions. McDougal's QB rating that year was 151.3 and Faila's was 210.0).
Let's pause here for a moment to consider just how woeful the 2001 N.D. offense was this year. Remember this was Davie's "most talented" squad, yet it averaged only 3.9 per carry and 5.1 per pass attempt. The last time an N.D. team averaged less than 4 yards a carry and 6 yards a pass attempt was Hugh Devore's 1963 squad, which finished 2-7.
I decided to look at N.D.'s rushing and passing statistics back to 1960, grouping the seasons by yardage per rushing or passing attempt. I then assembled the records of the teams in each of those years, and then translated that winning percentage into games won in a 12-game schedule. Therefore, to take the first example, in years in which N.D. has averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry, it averages only 4.7 wins out of 12. For comparison purposes, N.D.'s winning percentage over this 42-year stretch is a little over 69%, which works out to 8.37 wins per 12 games.
Rushing per Attempt
Yards Wins
3.5. - 4.7
3.5 - 4.0 7.7
4.0 - 4.5 8.6
4.5 + 9.3
Passing per Attempt
Yards Wins
6.0 - 6.8
6.0 - 7.0 7.2
7.0 - 8.0 9.3
8.0 + 9.0
Probably unsurprisingly, either an effective rushing attack or an effective passing attack contributes to the success of the team. For a run-oriented team like N.D., the correlation is clearer with rushing, but the correlation with an efficient passing attack is clear as well. With regard to passing, it appears to top out around 7 yards per attempt. In other words, it doesn't appear to make much difference, by itself, if the yardage per attempt goes over 8. On the other hand, a largely ineffective attack like the 2001 offense is likely to mire the team around .500 or worse.
Now consider, however, the effect of the correspondence between a decent passing attack and a decent rushing attack. I first looked at every year in which N.D.'s offense averaged both 4.0 or better per carry AND 7.0 or better per pass. As it turns out, this has happened exactly 50% of the time (21 years of 42) since 1960. In those 21 years, N.D.'s record is an impressive 190-50-5, which works out to 9.4 wins per 12 -- a full game better than its overall average of about 8.4. Two national championship teams, 1966 and 1977, made these thresholds, but weren't any higher -- both were between 4.0 and 4.5 per carry and 7.0 and 8.0 per pass attempt. Every national championship team has made these thresholds. Only once in these years has N.D. made these thresholds and not had a winning season. Predictably, it was a Davie team, the 5-7 1999 squad. In the other 21 years -- i.e., years in which N.D. has averaged less than 4 yards a carry or 7 yards a pass, or both -- N.D. has had 8 seasons of .500 or worse. Note, there is nothing particularly amazing, by itself, about averaging 4 yards a rushing attempt or 7 yards a passing attempt. N.D. has averaged 4 yards or better per run 30 of the last 42 years and has averaged 7 yards or better per pass 26 of the last 42 years. The key is combining them in one season.
If we turn it up a notch to years in which N.D. has gained 4.5 yards or better per carry AND 8 or more yards per passing attempt, the record gets even better. In those years N.D.'s record is 78-17-1, which works out to 9.8 wins per 12. The worst record ever posted by an N.D. team meeting those thresholds was Holtz's 8-3 squad of 1996. That team, however, lost two games in overtime and rolled up a scoring margin of 226 points for the year, a level that is often sufficient to compete for the national championship. Again, there's nothing particularly unusual about a 4.5 yards per carry average or an 8 yards per pass average. N.D. has made this rushing threshold 16 times in the last 42 years and this passing level 14 times. The concurrence of them, however, leads to a very successful season.
Willingham's averages this year at Stanford would be the recipe for success on offense at N.D. Of course, none of this considers defensive averages, something I hope to take up in a future post. But N.D.'s offense this year was so pitiful that in retrospect it's actually remarkable that the record wasn't worse than 5-6. The major overhaul is needed on the offensive side of the ball and there is reason to be optimistic that Willingham can complete the task.