If luck is the residue of design, then confidence is the residue of preparation.

The manic preparation of Willingham and Co. has now distilled itself into confidence for this Irish team.

Davie never really understood confidence. Probably that was because at a certain point in time, in those innermost thoughts that one always keeps to oneself, Davie lost confidence in himself. Certainly he never showed the organizational genius necessary to run an enterprise as complex as Notre Dame football and the preparation of his players always suffered. If you think back to Ara, Holtz and Devine, they were men who had superior organizational skills. Davie, however, did not.

Certainly, there was a time when Davie thought he could do it. But right from the start it was so much more difficult than he imagined. He was extremely fortunate to win his opener against a Georgia Tech team that N.D. was expected to beat easily and then he lost his next four. Almost unimaginably, about five years ago today the N.D. faithful had a new coach and a 1-4 record and cupboard of questions with very few answers. N.D. righted the ship some and then limped into a trivial bowl and a rematch with L.S.U. where N.D. was beaten soundly.

When N.D. won the opener against Michigan in 1998 all seemed right with the world, like the 1997 season was some sort of bad dream. But then there was N.D. down by six touchdowns at halftime to an 0-2 M.S.U. team, and the Davie era was essentially dead. True, N.D. won the next 9 games against weak teams, but it won by playing not to lose. And from the end of that winning streak Davie was almost exactly .500, winning 19 and losing 18 and the suffering was acute.

Davie's lack of confidence showed in everything and it infected the players. Its most obvious manifestation was always playing not to lose, trying to guard even the thinnest of leads. Consider that 5 games into his first season, Willingham has equaled -- at two games -- Davie's highest season total for contests won by 21 or more points. Through 5 games this year, N.D. has outscored the opposition by 59 points (123 to 64). Projected to a 12-game season, that would yield a scoring margin of 145 points. The largest season scoring margins generated by a Davie team (in 1998 and 2000) were 86 and 80 points. Ara, Devine and Holtz all had teams that outscored the opposition by more than 200 points over the course of a season. Holtz did it four times; Ara's 1966 team outscored the opposition by more than 300 points; they had confidence in their teams.

Willingham has confidence in himself and in this team. Willingham has been in more pressure-packed situations than guiding a team that carries the hopes of so many. Lee Trevino said once that true pressure is not the final round of the U.S. Open, it's putting to win a $2 bet when you've only got 50 cents in your pocket. Willingham has been through the 50-cents-in-his-pocket days. Coming off a 3-8 season at Stanford, the Cardinal got blasted 69-17 by Texas. Willingham told his Stanford team that he knew that there was a champion in the room and they won the Pac 10, went to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 28 years and won 22 of 34 games, one of the best stretches in modern Stanford football.

Confidence has an evil twin named Bravado. Sometimes Davie's teams showed bravado, but bravado interferes with preparation and it is punctured too easily. Consider how Davie so often fell apart at crunch time: in overtime against Nebraska, in the Fiesta Bowl, against M.S.U. five straight years.

Compare these failings with the 2002 campaign. This year N.D. has either trailed or been caught from behind in 4 of its 5 games and consider how it has responded. Up 17-0 against Purdue, Purdue rallied to make it 17-17, when Duff made one of the biggest plays of the season and N.D. won 24-17. Up 16-7 at the half against Michigan, a fumble let Michigan back in the game and the Wolverines eventually took the lead 17-16. N.D. responded immediately with a long T.D. drive and then a field goal that proved to be the winning margin. Up 14-3 against M.S.U., Holiday was injured and an inspired Spartan team took the lead 17-14 and five years of bad memories came flooding back. But cool-as-a-cucumber Dillingham found Battle on a slant and he raced past the Spartan defense and into immortality. Playing probably the most lackluster half of the year, the Irish found themselves down 7-3 at halftime, and responded with 4 touchdowns (2 offensive and 2 defensive) to make the final margin 31-7.

When N.D. has been pushed to the wall, it has responded immediately and has never let the opposition reclaim the lead -- not once. This is the mark of confidence, not bravado. It comes from preparation, not wishful thinking.

This team has the confidence to beat Pittsburgh, and it will.