When the Irish this year were having success to the amazement of most of the national media, the theory was that N.D. was a "senior laden" team that was just coming into its own. Of course, the more convincing explanation was that they had gotten bad coaching in prior years but now had good coaching.

Assuming no off-season disasters, let's look at the Irish in terms of the percentage of various categories that they return next year (2003) versus what they returned this year (2002).

Rushing attempts
2002: 38%
2003: 92%

Rushing yards:
2002: 35%
2003: 92%

Passing attempts:
2002: 68%
2003: 99.5% (Joey completed a fake punt pass)

Passing yardage:
2002: 74%
2003: 99.5%

Receptions:
2002: 19%
2003: 64%

Receiving yards:
2002: 25%
2003: 63%

Interceptions by defense:
2002: 43%
2003: 48%

Tackles:
2002: 52%
2003: 80%

In every category, the Irish were less experienced last year. And although we lose important players this year (Battle, Sapp, Walton and others), we actually retain more this year.

The biggest experience deficit next year is the one that doesn't show easily in the statistics, which is along the offensive line. The optimistic view is that their play was spotty this year, so perhaps the drop off may not be large, or perhaps (like Virginia this year) a young line will improve dramatically. In any event, that appears to be the key question in next year's equation.