In a couple of past efforts, I tried to look at the effect of offensive and defensive balance. My hypothesis was that it was better to be reasonably good in both offensive phases (running and passing) or both defensive phases (stopping the run and stopping the pass) than it was to be excellent in one and deficient in the other. In order to look at this, I've used yard per play statistics since 1960, which seems about right as the date to start the "modern" era of N.D. football. I've focused on yards per play because a college team runs and defends 700 or more plays per season, so by season's end you've had enough trials to know with some confidence how proficient the team is in that phase of the game. Yards per play is a better measure for that reason than yards per game, and also because total yardage can often be held down turnovers and good special teams play. Consider that the Rams won a playoff game in which they were outgained in total yardage (Green Bay) and lost one in which they dominated in total yards (the Super Bowl against the Patriots).

Both the offensive and defense balance examinations turned up some interesting results. In the 42 years since the 1960 season, N.D. has won a little over 69% of its games, which translates into 8.37 wins per 12-game season. On the offensive side of the ball, if N.D. achieves the relatively modest levels of 4 yards per rush and 7 yards per pass, N.D. wins at a rate of 9.4 games per 12. Achieving this balance is more important than, by itself, passing for 8 yards an attempt or, by itself, rushing for 4.5 yards per carry. In the 42 years, N.D. has achieved this offensive balance 21 times -- and 20 of those 21 seasons have been winning seasons. The only time N.D. has achieved this balance and had a losing season was in 1999 (5-7) when N.D. had one of its worst defenses. Twice N.D. has won the national championship (1966 and 1977) with offenses that met the "4 and 7" test, but didn't do much better than that. In the 21 years that N.D. has NOT met the "4 and 7" test on offense, it has had only 13 winning seasons. All of this seems to be good news regarding the Willingham hire, because his Stanford offense, which rushed for 4.4 per carry and averaged a little over 8 yards per pass, would be the recipe for success at N.D

Essentially the same thing shows up on the defensive side of the ball. If N.D. achieves the very modest levels of holding its opponents to less than 3.75 yards per rush and 7 yards per pass, N.D.'s win rate is 8.53 games per 12. If N.D. holds the opposition to less than 3.25 yards per rush and 7 yards per pass, then the win rate jumps to a stronger 9.6 games per 12. If N.D. holds the opposition to less than 3.25 yards per rush and 6 yards per pass the win rate becomes 10.3 and a national championship starts to come into view. All of the modern national championship teams (1966, 1973, 1977 and 1988) have met this level, and so have some other very good teams (1964, 1970, 1974, 1989 and 1993). The worst record ever by a team meeting the 3.25/6 test on defense was the 8-3 1996 team, which lost two games in overtime. N.D.'s defense this year (3.50/6.93) and Stanford's defense this year (3.53/6.98) were both good enough to have been competitive under this formula, but a bit away from being major contenders. N.D.'s defense, of course, was handicapped by the worst offense since 1963 (3.9/5.1). Davie, in his 5-year career, managed to generate both one of the worst defensive (1999) and offensive (2001) teams in modern history.

This time I tried to look at balance in a different way. I decided took at whether N.D. out-rushed and/or out-passed per play the opposition over the course of the season. The reason I decided to look at it is that different games over the course of the season have different paces. If you have a slower-paced, grind-it-out game, or if you are ahead by more than a score late in the game, being able to out rush the opposition is likely to be crucial. On the other hand, if you get caught in a higher scoring game (or are behind by more than a score late in the game), passing prowess becomes more important. It seems likely that being able to BOTH out-rush and out-pass the opposition would correlate with success.

There are three major possibilities: N.D. out-rushes and out-passes the opposition, N.D. is better in one category and the opposition is better in one, and the opposition is better in both. Here are the win rates:

N.D. better in both: 8.9

N.D. better in one: 7.4

N.D. worse in both: 3.7

As it turns out, N.D. is usually better in both; in 32 of the 42 years it has both out-rushed and out-passed the opposition. Showing, once again, the destructiveness of the Davie era, 3 of the 10 seasons where N.D. has failed to be better in both belong to Davie: 1997, 2000 and 2001. Faust missed only once, Devine missed only once, Ara missed only once and Holtz never. (The other years are all pre-Ara).

Now, how about the margins? I grouped the 32 "double positive" years as follows: Years in which either the rushing margin was less than .5 yards or the passing margin was less than 1.0 yards; years in which the rushing margin was at least .5 yards and the passing margin was at least 1.0 yards (but not meeting the next level) and years in which the rushing margin was at least 1.0 yards and the passing margin was at least 2.0 yards. Here are the win rates:

Less than .5/1.0: 7.5

More than .5/1.0: 8.1

More than 1.0/2.0: 10.4

As one might expect, the bigger the margins, the better. N.D. has to get to a .5 per rush and 1.0 per pass margin before the win rate passes 8 and crosses into the land of respectability. If the margins get past 1.0 and 2.0, a championship starts to come into view. Every national championship team has achieved these levels. The worst record by a team ever to get to these levels was the hard-luck 1996 team, which finished 8-3.

Once again, things look good for Willingham to do reasonably well, though he'll have to do better to get into national championship contention (though the same was undoubtedly true for Ara, Holtz and Devine judged by their teams at prior schools). Stanford's rushing margin was about .9 yards (4.4 to 3.5) and its passing margin was about 1.2 (8.1 to 6.9). This would put Willingham fairly far up in the middle category, but a ways away from the top one.