Davie, of course, was 0-5 against the Spartans. To put this in a little historical context N.D. is 41-23-1 against MSU overall (and that's with Davie's 5 tallies in the loss column) and every modern coach except for Davie had owned the Spartans. Ara was 8-2-1, Devine was 5-1, Faust was 4-1 and Holtz was 8-1. Davie's five losses from 1997 through 2001 equal the total number of N.D. losses to M.S.U. from 1964 through 1994. Nor can Davie's dismal performance be put down to improvement on MSU's side. In games other than their contests with N.D., MSU was 60-41-1 (.593) during Ara's tenure, 33-25-2 (.567) during Devine's, 23-28-1 (.452) during Faust's and 56-45-2 (.553) the years MSU played Holtz's teams (the teams did not play in 1995 or 1996). MSU was 30-24 (.556) in non-N.D. games during Davie's tenure, which would make it the third easiest stretch to have played the Spartans. In truth, only Faust really had the good luck to have caught MSU during a bad stretch, and Ara played against probably the greatest MSU teams ever. So let's close the door on that excuse.
Moreover, MSU dominated Davie's teams. In that 5-game stretch, MSU averaged 27 points per game and N.D. 14.8. Although a couple of the five games were winnable, on the whole it has not been a matter of N.D. simply being snakebit.
Another oddity of the stretch has been that, even with Davie at the helm, N.D. has looked like at least as good a team as M.S.U., except when they play each other. Excluding the head-to-head match-ups, M.S.U. has been 30-24 for the last 5 years and N.D. 35-20. Even if you include their head-to-head match-ups, M.S.U. was 35-24 and N.D. 35-25 against similar competition. Since 1998 (as far back as Sagarin archives his data), the average difficulty of N.D.'s schedule has been 21st and M.S.U.'s has been 20th. So, there's not much to distinguish the teams.
The sequence seems all the weirder if we review the sequences. In 1997, M.S.U. -- on the way to a 7-5 season -- drilled N.D. (who was also 7-5 during the regular season) at N.D. 23-7. In 1998 -- probably Davie's best team -- N.D. was coming off the biggest win of Davie's tenure (a 36-20 win over defending national champion Michigan) and M.S.U. was coming off a 23-16 loss to Colorado St. and a 48-14 pasting at the hands of Oregon. Even so, the result was a devastating 45-23 loss for the Irish in East Lansing. The Spartans followed that up with a 29-17 loss to Michigan and went on to a 6-6 record, while N.D. won every other game until the U.S.C. game at the end of the regular season.. The 1999 game is probably the easiest to understand in terms of the relative strength of the teams. M.S.U. won 23-13 at N.D. and was on its way to a 10-2 record capped off by a victory over Florida in the Citrus Bowl, while N.D. struggled to a 5-7 record. In 2000, however, it was role reversal as N.D. was 9-2 in the regular season and M.S.U. was 5-6, but the result was a 27-21 loss at M.S.U. In 2001, N.D. lost 17-10 at home and finished 5-6 while the Spartans were 6-5 in the regular season.
To play a little "what if," had Davie managed even a 3-2 record against M.S.U. he would've been 38-22 for the last five years, and might well still have his job (so maybe all of this suffering has been for a higher purpose). Every one of the losses to M.S.U. -- particularly because they have come early in the year -- has been a killer. In a sense, the 1998 loss might well have been the worst in that regard because it dashed probably the highest hopes of the last 5 years, but let's assume that Davie had managed to win his three home games against M.S.U. How would the sequence have differed. In 1997, you'll certainly recall, Davie started with a surprisingly close and unimpressive victory over Georgia Tech at home and then a shocking loss to Purdue on the road (Purdue was coming off of a 36-22 loss to Toledo). Had N.D. returned home and beaten M.S.U. the Irish would've been 2-1 and it would've made the Purdue loss appear to be more of a fluke. But getting pasted by M.S.U. was confirmation that the Irish were in real trouble, which was confirmed by a 21-14 loss to eventual national champion Michigan and a 33-15 thrashing by Stanford, and the Irish were off to their worst start in many moons. Even if a victory against the Spartans wouldn't have bought the Irish enough confidence to win one of the next two, they still would've wound up the regular season 8-4, which wouldn't have seemed so bad after Holtz's 8-3 finale, and the bowl game would've probably been a better deal than a rematch with L.S.U.
If we skip ahead to N.D.'s next home game against M.S.U. in 1999, a win would've helped a lot. N.D. started the season by drilling Kansas in the Eddie Robinson classic. Things turned south, however, when they lost to Michigan 26-22, fueled by a still-hard-to-understand celebration penalty after N.D. took the lead late in the game. That was followed by a tough loss at Purdue 28-23. Now, had N.D. beaten M.S.U. (instead of losing 23-13) things would've looked a lot brighter: N.D. would've been 2-2 and then the wins the following weeks at Oklahoma, at Arizona St., and home against U.S.C. and Navy would've had the Irish at 6-2 with all the appearance of a team that had righted the ship and would be ready to play well in a bowl game. No amount of confidence-building would've probably been enough to get by Tennessee the next week, but perhaps the confidence of having another win under their belt might've given them enough to win one of the three very winnable games at the end of the season. Instead they turned into a 37-27 loss at Pitt, a 31-29 home loss to B.C. and a 40-37 loss to Stanford. Even if beating M.S.U. wouldn't have bought the Irish a win in one of the close games down the stretch, it would've avoided a losing season.
In 2001, the M.S.U. game, of course, followed the 27-10 loss to Nebraska. Had N.D. pulled that game out instead of losing 17-10, the situation would've seemed much brighter. The Nebraska loss would've been easier to understand because it was the Huskers' third game and N.D.'s first, and opening on the road under these circumstances was a difficult task for any team. Instead, N.D. was mired in yet another horrible start and the strong possibility of an 0-3 start was heavy in the air, and materialized with N.D.'s heartless 24-3 loss at Texas A&M. Even if N.D. still would've lost to A&M, the Pitt victory would've gotten N.D. to 2-2 and perhaps the games at B.C. and Stanford might've yielded at least one win rather than two close losses. In any event, a losing season would've been avoided.
Of course, it's all probably to the good, because it would've made it harder for N.D. to have fired Davie. Moreover, M.S.U. has deserved to win all of the games. Although the last two, in particular, were games that N.D. could've won, N.D. has not come close to dominating any of the games. In fact, for whatever reason, M.S.U. has played much more effectively in the N.D. games than they have over the course of their seasons as a whole. Let's start with 2001 and move backwards. The first number is M.S.U.'s season average and the second is the N.D game
2001
Season/N.D. game
Yards per rush: 3.7/3.1
Yards allowed per rush: 4.4/5.2
Yards per pass: 9.1/8.9
Yards allowed per pass 6.5/3.6
Yards per play: 6.1/5.1
Yards allowed per play: 5.3/4.2
2000
Season/N.D. game
Yards per rush: 3.9/3.3
Yards allowed per rush: 4.0/4.0
Yards per pass: 6.8/7.5
Yards allowed per pass 5.8/3.9
Yards per play: 5.1/4.7
Yards allowed per play: 4.8/4.0
1999
Season/N.D. game
Yards per rush: 3.8/3.6
Yards allowed per rush: 2.3/3.0
Yards per pass: 7.0/7.1
Yards allowed per pass 6.2/9.1
Yards per play: 5.4/7.1
Yards allowed per play: 4.3/6.9
M.S.U. does not have its statistics for the 1998 and 1997 seasons on the web, but the statistics for the N.D. game reveal much of the same. In 1998, M.S.U. was better per carry 4.6 to 2.8, better per pass 11.0 to 6.6 and better per play 6.3 to 4.4. In 1997, M.S.U. was better per carry 4.2 to 2.7, better per pass 6.9 to 4.8 and better per play 4.9 to 4.0.
Essentially, M.S.U has always been able to shut down at least one phase of N.D.'s offense, while maintaining some reasonable balance in its own offense. In particular, although M.S.U. has not thrown with great frequency against N.D., the Spartans have thrown with great effectiveness, while N.D.'s passing attack has usually been woeful. In the five games, M.S.U. has averaged 8.3 yards per pass while N.D. has averaged about 5.6 (the NCAA average is about 6.9). The only year N.D. could really muster any passing offense was 1999, which was a matter of necessity because the Irish managed only 2.3 yards per carry. The only games that were really close in total yardage were 2001 where M.S.U. outgained N.D. 332 to 280 and in 1999 where M.S.U. outgained the Irish 433 to 353. In 1999, however, the Spartans won the turnover battle 5 to 2 and in 2001 2 to zero. Losing the total yardage and the turnover battle will almost always lose you the game, and it did for the Irish.
So why was M.S.U. was such a gremlin for Davie? Even with all of his deficiencies and as poorly as N.D. has played the last five years, the Irish have certainly been better than Iowa, Indiana and Minnesota, teams that have beaten the Spartans since 1997.
Some of it may have been the timing of the games in the year. Also, M.S.U.'s game plans have always seemed vastly superior to N.D.'s, emphasizing balance in the offense and always managing to exploit weaknesses in N.D.'s defense, particularly the secondary. By the time Davie was 0-3 against the Spartans, he clearly was pressing. In 2000 the Irish had M.S.U. down to a 4th down conversion that would've ended the game with a 21-20 N.D. victory had the Irish stopped the Spartans, but Davie personally called a blitz and M.S.U. had the perfect play, a quick slant that went for a T.D. The next year: similar blitz, similar play, similar back-breaking T.D. late in the game.
Though one game a trend not makes, it may be of some comfort that the only time Willingham faced his alma mater (M.S.U., of course), the Cardinal ripped the Spartans apart 38-0 in the Sun Bowl in 1996, handing Saban his worst loss at M.S.U. except for 41 and 40-point losses to Nebraska at Lincoln.
A 38-point win this year would do a lot for Irish spirits.