As some of you know, I've been running a statistical model projecting N.D. games since the Pittsburgh game. Unadjusted it projected a 4-point win over Pitt and adjusted for schedule strength and home field it projected an 11-point N.D. win (N.D. won by 8), unadjusted it projected a 2-point loss to A.F.A. but adjusted for home field and schedule strength is projected at 3-point win (N.D. won by 7), both adjusted and unadjusted it projected a 3-point win over F.S.U. (N.D. won by 10), it projected a 16-point or 22-point win over B.C. (N.D. lost by 7), it projected a 25-point or 28-point win over Navy (N.D. won by 7), it projected an 18 or 25 point win over Rutgers (N.D. won by 42) and it projected a 7-point loss to U.S.C. (N.D. lost by 31). So while it hasn't always been deadly accurate, adjusted it had every game right except for the B.C. game.

N.C. State presents sort of an unusual challenge statistically in that they played two Division I-AA teams. I excluded those games as well as excluding all Division I-AA teams as opponents of our opponents (e.g., Purdue's game against Illinois St.). The reason is that the Divsion I-AA teams just don't play enough Division I-A teams to get a reliable read on where they stand. There's no question that some Division I-AA teams are better than some bottom-end Division I-A teams. One of N.C. State's Division I-AA opponents, Univ. of Massachusetts, isn't too bad; that squad went 8-4 and Sagarin ranks the Minutemen ahead of Navy. N.C. St. won that game 56-24. N.C. State's other Division I-AA opponent was E. Tenn St., which isn't even a good Division I-AA team; they finished 4-8 and that team would probably have trouble with dozens of decent Division II teams. N.C. State won that game 34-0

Anyway, the unadjusted model projects a 17-17 tie between N.D. and N.C. State and N.D. gets a 1-point schedule strength adjustment, so the adjusted model projects a 1-point victory. In case you're wondering why N.D.'s adjustment isn't larger, with the Division I-AA teams out of the picture, the schedules of the teams are closer. For purposes of my model, the key figure is opponents' opponents record and for N.D. it's 828-705 while N.C. St. is 783-701. With the Division I-AA foes out, N.C. State's opponents posted a 67-68 mark while N.D.'s were 75-68.

In many ways the teams had similar seasons. Both started fast and then limped home. N.C. State started 9-0 (7-0 against Division I-A) but then lost three straight before beating F.S.U. 17-7 in the finale; N.D. was 2-2 for its last 4 after starting 8-0.

Again with the Division I-AA teams excluded, here are some other points of comparision:

1-year record
N.D. 10-2
St. 8-3

2-year record
N.D. 15-8
St. 15-8

3-year record
N.D. 24-11
St. 22-12

Points per game scored/allowed
N.D. 23.6/15.7
St. 31.1/18.9

Yards per rush gained/allowed
N.D. 3.5/2.9
St. 3.8/3.7

Yards per pass gained/allowed
N.D. 6.9/5.8
St. 8.0/6.0

N.D. and N.C. State had three opponents in common:

Navy
N.D. won 30-23
ST. won 65-19

Maryland
N.D. won 22-0
St. lost 22-24

F.S.U.
N.D. won 34-24
St. won 17-7

So, N.D. is 3-0 against the common opponents with an average score of 28.7 to 15.7 and N.C. St. is 2-1 with an average score of 34.7 to 16.7 (though N.C. St.'s scoring totals are boosted here by the large number of points dropped on Navy).

I think this game is a good opportunity for N.D. N.C. State is a ranked team from a B.C.S. conference. Probably the line on this game will be very close; N.C. State may even be a favorite by a point or two.