Michigan was better than N.D. last year, but not hugely so. N.D. as we know was 5-6 and Michigan was 8-4. They had three opponents in common and had the same results against all three: N.D. lost to M.S.U. 17-10 and Michigan lost 26-24 (though it was controversial); N.D. beat Purdue 24-18 and Michigan beat Purdue 24-10; N.D. lost to Tennessee 28-18 and Michigan lost 45-17. Actually, in many ways N.D. and Michigan were similar last year, except that Michigan had an offense was that was good enough to generate about one more touchdown per game. N.D. with one more touchdown per game would've been 7-4 or 8-3, depending on how the M.S.U. game would've been resolved.

But in the series history since it resumed in the 1970's, having the better record the prior year hasn't been much of a predictor in the game between the teams.

Here are the results with the prior year's record:

09-23-1978 N.D. (11-1) 14 Michigan (10-2) 28 South Bend, IN

09-15-1979 N.D. (9-3) 12 Michigan (10-2) 10 Ann Arbor, MI

09-20-1980 N.D. (7-4) 29 Michigan (8-4) 27 South Bend, IN

09-19-1981 N.D. (9-2-1) 7 Michigan (10-2)25 Ann Arbor, MI

09-18-1982 N.D. (5-6) 23 Michigan (9-3) 17 South Bend, IN

09-14-1985 N.D. (7-5) 12 Michigan (8-4) 0 Ann Arbor, MI

09-13-1986 N.D. (5-6) 23 Michigan (10-1-1)24 South Bend, IN

09-12-1987 N.D. (5-6) 26 Michigan (11-1) 7 Ann Arbor, MI

09-10-1988 N.D. (8-4) 19 Michigan (8-4) 17 South Bend, IN

09-16-1989 N.D. (12-0)24 Michigan (9-2-1)19 Ann Arbor, MI

09-15-1990 N.D. (12-1)28 Michigan (10-2) 24 South Bend, IN

09-14-1991 N.D. (9-3) 14 Michigan (9-3) 24 Ann Arbor, MI

09-12-1992 N.D. (10-3)17 Michigan (10-2) 17 South Bend, IN

09-11-1993 N.D.(10-1-1)27 Michigan 23 (9-0-3) Ann Arbor, MI

09-10-1994 N.D. (11-1)24 Michigan (8-4) 26 South Bend, IN

09-27-1997 N.D. (8-3) 14 Michigan (8-4) 21 Ann Arbor, MI

09-05-1998 N.D. (7-6) 36 Michigan (12-0)20 South Bend, IN

09-04-1999 N.D. (9-3) 22 Michigan (10-3)26 Ann Arbor, MI

Interestingly, the team with the worse record in the prior year is 9-5-1 over this stretch. Three times the teams have faced each other having posted identical or essentially identical records (I treated 10-1-1 and 9-0-3 as being essentially identical records) and N.D. is 2-1 in those games.

Five times N.D. has faced Michigan coming off a season with 5 or more losses, and N.D. is 4-1 in these contests, the lone loss being the 24-23 contest in Holtz's first year.