Looking back at the last three years (which are the years I can easily get the statistics for both teams), Stanford was +14 in 2001, +11 in 2000 and +7 in 1999. N.D. was -7 in 2001, -4 in 2000 and -6 in 1999. So, Stanford's 3-year average is about +11 and N.D.'s about -6.
Over the course of a season, another 16 or 17 net first downs could
make a difference in the outcome of a game or two. Of course, depending
on where they fall, it might not make a difference. But in the M.S.U. game
N.D. had 18 first downs and M.S.U. 16, in the B.C. game it was 23-14 N.D.,
in the Stanford game it was 20-13 Stanford. All of those games were close
enough that another couple of first downs either way might've made a difference.