There has been much discussion lately of N.D.'s exclusion from most of the so-called pre-season "polls," so let's take a look at the 2001 NCS preseason poll and see how it correlated to the final AP poll. The NCS is an average of about two dozen of these so-called pre-season polls. Here is the NCS "poll" with the final ranking of the team underneath:

1. Florida
Final: #3, 10-2

2. Miami
Final: #1, 12-0

3. Oklahoma
Final: #6, 11-2

4. Texas
Final: #5, 11-2

5. FSU
Final: #15, 8-4

6. Nebraska
Final: #8, 11-2

7. Tennessee
Final: #4, 11-2

8. Oregon
Final: #2, 11-1

9. Virginia Tech
Final: #18, 8-4

10. Georgia Tech
Final: #24, 8-5

11. Kansas St.
Final: NR, 6-6 (Howell rank: #28)

12. Michigan
Final: #20, 8-4

13. Oregon St.
Final: NR, 5-6 (Howell rank: #55)

14. LSU
Final: #7, 10-3

15. Washington
Final: #19, 8-4

16. UCLA
Final: NR, 7-4 (Howell rank: #22)

17. Notre Dame
Final: NR, 5-6 (Howell rank: #50)

18. Northwestern
Final: NR, 4-7 (Howell rank: #79)

19. Mississippi St.
Final: NR, 3-8, (Howell rank: #82)

20. Clemson
Final: NR, 7-5 (Howell rank: #43)

21. South Carolina
Final: #13, 9-3

22. Alabama
Final: NR, 7-5 (Howell rank: #31)

23. Wisconsin
Final: NR, 5-7 (Howell rank: #53)

24. Colorado St.
Final: NR, 7-5 (Howell rank: #49)

25. Colorado
Final: #9, 10-3

10 of the 25 "consensus" pre-season top 25 teams were not ranked by the A.P. at the end of the year, and 6 of them had .500 or worse records.

Here are the 10 teams that weren't in the consensus top 25, but had crashed the party by the year's end:

10. Washington St. (10-2)
11. Maryland (10-2)
12. Illinois (10-2)
14. Syracuse (10-3)
16. Stanford (9-3)
17. Louisville (11-2)
21. Boston College (8-4)
22. Georgia (8-4)
23. Toledo (10-2)
25. BYU (12-2)

In fact, teams like Washington St. and Maryland were not mentioned in anyone's pre-season top 25, as far as I can tell. Stanford appeared in only two of the two dozen polls (once at 23 and once at 24). Illinois appeared in only one poll (at 24). Moreover, other teams that pleasantly surprised for some or all of last year -- Fresno St. (11-3, #17 Howell, #27 A.P -- i.e., second highest vote total to miss the poll) and Hawaii (9-3, #40 Howell, #28 A.P.) being two good examples, did not make anyone's pre-season top 25 as far as I can tell. Apparently, therefore, these "polls" have very limited (at best) ability to see surprise teams coming down the road.

Now, however, for 2002, last year's surprise teams appear with more regularity: Washington St. at #13, Maryland #24, Illinois #25. Moreover, Colorado, which barely made it last year (#25), has vaulted to #6. Last year's pre-season 25 teams who fell on their collective faces do not appear in this year's pre-season 25: K. St., Oregon St., UCLA, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Mississippi St, Clemson, Alabama, Wisconsin and Colorado St. ALL missed the consensus pre-season top 25.

Now, take that group of 10 teams and compare it with this year's group of 10 "new" entrants into the pre-season top 25: Georgia, Ohio St., Washington St., Louisville, Michigan St., Marshall, Texas A&M, Auburn, Maryland and Illinois. I'd be willing to bet that by the end of the year at least as many of the "spurned" teams appear in the final top 25 as do the "flavors of the year" that are new this year.

In short, without having crunched a lot of numbers, I'd venture a guess that the pre-season top 25 rankings are much more reflective of last year's performance than they are of the next year's performance. In most years -- and last year was no exception -- there are several perhaps 8 to 12 whom most would identify as being realistic, potential contenders for the national championship. They all wind up in everyone's pre-season 25, and probably the national champion will come from that group, but not always -- OU in 2000 being an example of a surprising national champion. But when it comes to identifying other teams who will have good seasons, the pre-season polls do not, on casual inspection, appear to be a whole lot better than drawing the names of teams at random.

So, if you're inclined to worry that not being in the consensus top 25 somehow dooms N.D.'s (or anyone's) chances for having a reasonably good season, worry about something else.