Scoring by quarters over the course of a season is a potentially revealing statistic, because it tells you about a team's performance in various phases of the game. For instance, presumably the 1^st and 2^nd quarters should emphasize the merits of a team's game plan and the relative athletic abilities of the team. The 3^rd quarter is potentially revealing as to half-time adjustments and that and particularly the 4^th quarter should tell you something about a team's conditioning.

One would also expect that dominant teams would gain most of their scoring margin in the first half and then, with the game presumably in hand, should play more conservatively or with reserves in the later quarters.

Notre Dame has been keeping quarter by quarter scoring statistics since 1968, so let's look at the scoring margins from then through the 2001 season.

Year	Coach	Record	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
1968	Ara	7-2-1	+66	+53	+41	+50
1969	Ara	8-2-1	+66	+85	+56	+10
1970	Ara	10-1-0	+59	+73	+30	+84
1971	Ara	8-2-0	+22	+18	+41	+48
1972	Ara	8-3-0	+46	+75	+14	-4
1973	Ara	11-0-0	+68	+104	+66	+54
1974	Ara	10-2-0	+36	+85	+11	+37
1975	Devine	8-3-0	+16	+30	-26	+83
1976	Devine	9-3-0	+57	+54	+13	+1
1977	Devine	11-1-0	+33	+52	+70	+89
1978	Devine	9-3-0	+31	+26	+41	-3
1979	Devine	7-4-0	+50	+4	-29	+21
1980	Devine	9-2-1	+17	+48	+39	+23
1981	Faust	5-6-0	+51	+15	+1	+15
1982	Faust	6-4-1	+30	+23	-9	-12
1983	Faust	7-5-0	+62	+21	+43	+12
1984	Faust	7-5-0	+10	+65	-2	-6
1985	Faust	5-6-0	+10	+6	-9	-11
1986	Holtz	5-6-0	+2	+50	-2	+30
1987	Holtz	8-4-0	+47	-6	+59	+45
1988	Holtz	12-0-0	+84	+63	+50	+43
1989	Holtz	12-1-0	+47	+122	+39	+15
1990	Holtz	9-3-0	+57	+23	-7	+28
1991	Holtz	10-3-0	+54	+71	+60	-20
1992	Holtz	10-1-1	+68	+86	+38	+39
1993	Holtz	11-1-0	+32	+61	+64	+52
1994	Holtz	6-5-1	+24	+54	+35	-34
1995	Holtz	9-3-0	+26	+61	+19	+54
1996	Holtz	8-3-0	+49	+83	+59	+34
1997	Davie	7-6-0	+41	+8	-37	+23
1998	Davie	9-3-0	+4	-8	+72	+14
1999	Davie	5-7-0	+7	-5	+5	+10
2000	Davie	9-3-0	+50	+17	+53	-8
2001	Davie	5-6-0	-30	+9	+13	+5

 
 
 

Career Averages

Ara

Q1: +51.9
Q2: +70.4
Q3: +37.0
Q4: +39.9

Devine

Q1: +34.0
Q2: +35.7
Q3: +18.0
Q4: +35.7

Faust

Q1: +32.6
Q2: +26.0
Q3: +4.8
Q4: -0.4

Holtz

Q1: +42.4
Q2: +60.7
Q3: +37.6
Q4: +32.2

Davie

Q1: +14.4
Q2: +4.2
Q3: +21.2
Q4: +8.8

Interestingly, all three of N.D.'s successful coaches during this era -- Ara, Holtz and Devine -- were quite good 2^nd quarter coaches. In retrospect, this stands to reason, because the game is still competitive in the 2^nd quarter, even if it turns out to be a blowout, and jitters that sometimes accompany 1^st quarter play are gone. In fact, Holtz's pattern almost exactly track Ara's, although Holtz's teams were not quite as dominant. Devine's teams were not as dominant as either Ara's or Holtz's, but Devine was a good 4^th quarter coach, which is consistent with his excellent record in close (7 points or fewer) games (15-8-1).

Faust's problems are easy to see in retrospect. His teams started off games fairly well (in fact, his record in the first two quarters looks a lot like Devine's), but they fell apart in the second half. Some of this was surely the lack of sophistication of Faust's schemes. It was said that while the average college team ran out of about 40 offensive formations during that era, N.D. only ran out of about 10, and the play calling was highly predictable. Teams caught on and made adjustments during the game, which caused him to lose games in the second half. His very poor 4^th quarter performances are also consistent with his very poor record in close games (6-15-1). Holtz also seemed to recognize that Faust's teams had severe conditioning problems, which would be consistent with being outscored in both the 3^rd and 4^th quarters. Holtz got considerable results on this front in his first two years (+30 and +45 in the 4^th quarters his first two years), even if the record of the team was only slightly better (13-10 Holtz's first two years compared with 12-11 in Faust's last two years).

With Davie -- as my mother would say -- "it's always something." The 1997 team seemed to get out of the gate reasonably well, but was notoriously bad in the 3^rd quarter. The 1998 team fixed the 3^rd quarter problems, but was very poor in the 1^st half. The 1999 and 2001 teams weren't very good in any quarter, and the 2001 team was usually in a hole after the 1^st quarter. The 2000 team was pretty good through three quarters, but outscored in the 4^th quarter. One trend worth noting, however, is the general downward trend of Davie's teams in the 4^th quarter. This could be evidence of a systemic conditioning problem, or -- perhaps -- just a creeping complacency that set in as the players learned to lose games and the players who played for Holtz graduated.

As for Willingham, he appears to be a 2^nd quarter coach as well. I could only find consecutive years of quarter-by-quarter scoring for the last three years, which is a pretty small sample. The overall margins aren't huge either, particularly because of his 5-6 2000 team which was quite poor defensively. For 2001, Willingham's team was +2, +80, -1, +12 quarter by quarter. His 3-year average was +2, +41.2, -6.7, +11.0. Willingham's relatively modest total margin (47.7 points) is not necessarily a source of concern, as the three successful modern coaches all achieved only relatively modest margins before coming to N.D. In Ara's last three seasons at Northwestern his average scoring margin was + 47.7, exactly the same as Willingham's. In Holtz's last three years before N.D. he was actually outscored, but that was due to his first season reconstruction job at Minnesota (4-7 and -122 points). If you stretch back 5 years to get his last three Arkansas teams his average scoring margin for those 5 years is 46.7 points, exactly one point under Willingham and Ara. Devine came to N.D. from the Packers where he hovered around .500. If you take his last three Missouri teams he averaged +122, which is indicative of good teams, though not national championship caliber. In some respects, Willingham appears to resemble Devine a little, in that his Achilles heel seems to be the 3^rd quarter. Whether that turns out to be a long-term trend at N.D. is, of course, unknown.