Last modified by cpheph1 on:
Notes and thoughts...
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9/29/2006 8:33PM: The most recent update by the media regarding the Packers' total available cap space was ~$7.5 million on 22 Sept. I think the media figure of $7.5 million included the full cap hits for Adrian Klemm and Mike Hawkins and not their injury settlement amounts (neither player is in the NFLPA base salary database). Additionally, Will Whitticker reportedly received an injury settlement also. ...and of course, since the media update, Tracy White was cut and Brandon Miree was signed (but y'all are well aware of by now). Hopefully, the media will eventually report the injury settlement amounts. In the mean time, I've made WAGs on the amounts. 9/4/2006 1:57PM: The final roster probably will undergo some tweaks here and there over the next few weeks but, as it stands, they've got 53 plus seven on IR and four on the practice squad that count against the salary cap. Additionally, there are 18 guys no-longer with the team that also count. I haven't seen anything in the media the last few days for team total so I'm not sure how far off my estimated available cap space is but I have them at $8,017,711. No real shockers with the final cuts but I thought they'd keep Jason Horton. Only 10 players originally acquired during GM Mike Sherman's tenure remain with the team. The influx of young players (17 rookie/1st year & 10 2nd year) clearly indicates to me Ted Thompson is rebuilding the roster the way he wants (i.e., via the draft). I'm not amazed by it but never thought I'd be saying "the Packers are rebuilding" while Brett was still around... I'm not sure what to expect this year... I believe they have some good/very-good players. However, the lack of experience could very well mean another losing season...but who knows, maybe things will fall into place and they'll have a winning record and possibly win the division. Stranger things have happened. Nothing is real until it happens... As always, I'll take the glass half-full approach. I'm hopeful the Packers will do well this year (~9-7 and division crown) but won't be crushed if they don't. 10:09 PM 8/6/2006: I think discovered the difference with the (below) JSO cap number:
Those three adjustments reconciled the difference I had with the $7.751m figure. Of course, since then, Todd Williams' cap number has been added into the mix. $7,713,200 appears to be the number... 10:02 PM 8/3/2006: I received an e-mail from a friend letting me know that JSO had a new article that had the "available cap space" number of $7.751m. However, I'm unable to reconcile with that number. Thus, I have a difference of $442,329. I'm pretty sure the JSO number does not include recently signed Todd Williams but there still is a discrepancy somewhere...which I cannot resolve without full access to NFLPA salary data (which I obviously do not have). Additionally, I'm projecting $230,910 for off-season workout bonus money paid...which could be way off the mark. Plus I'm using a slightly higher adjusted cap number than what JSO reports. Based on the JSO article I've adjusted cap numbers for the following: Charles Woodson, Terrence Murphy, Kevin Barry, and Adrian Klemm. Also, the JSO article has a link which enabled me to reconcile cap numbers for Kenderick Allen, Ahman Green, Kenny Peterson, Jason Horton, and Cullen Jenkins (they received off-season workout bonus amounts which I've subtracted from my previous projection total of $257,400). Regardless of my discrepancy with the JSO number, it's obvious the Packers Salary Cap is in great shape. 10:13 PM 8/2/2006: Back from my extended break... All the draft picks are signed and training camp has started so that's exciting! The total cap values for the drafted rookies was published by JSO on 1 Aug. Not sure how far off my "available cap space" number is. The last media report by JSO was $10.721m under on 19 July but that was before "The Hawk" landed and several other signings (Hodge, Jennings, Colledge, Spitz, Martin, Rogers, plus vets Peko and Todd Williams). Regardless how far off my number is, there's no doubt the Packers have lots of cap room remaining...and I'm sure they'll eventually use it all at some point this season (contract extensions, signing injury replacements, "carry-forward" LTBE, etc.). Who knows, maybe TT will pull the trigger and trade for Jerry Porter or Ashley Lelie...but not at their current asking price. 11:56 PM 6/10/2006: On 21 May, I had the Packers at $3,666,474 under...I've been away from the computer since then and a few things have happened...Barry got hurt [I'm considering him essentially on IR at this point] and today (or yesterday) Donnell Washington was cut. WRT to Donnell, I'm not surprised but thought he'd at least make it to training camp. He will count at least $177k+ in dead cap for 2006 and his remaining PRSB [$177,500] hits 2007...$3,582,474 is the current WAG for available space after the transactions. NFI why Mark Roman is still on the roster but I expect him to be released ASAP. Sounds like the OTAs are going OK but I can't wait to see them in pads...especially the LBs. Maybe they'll even be able to use a 3-3-5 defense with AJ, Nick, and Brady at LB in some specialty packages. A few players are non-volunteers but just because Al Harris is a no-show doesn't mean the media needs to spin it into new contract demands and a potential hold-out...yet they feel they must. 12:21 PM 5/30/2006: From
wsj: "Can Colledge and Coston replace last
year's guards? They can't be any worse, but it's doubtful they'll be any
better, either. At least not right away." [/excerpt]
AJ Hawk certainly will get a rich contract...I have NFI how rich, but he will be paid a pretty penny. A friend of mine, Chris R, has a few
podcasts he's
done that '600 unique' downloaders go there each month. 12:10 PM 5/20/2006: [JSO
Insider] "Could history repeat itself this year?" 8:59 PM 5/17/2006: Here's a different spin, from a total cap space perspective, on the defense...and who they'll likely keep. Not sure if they'll keep 24 or 25 defenders though. I've racked'n'stacked the safeties/CBs based
on the following article:
Packers got two of the top
ten LBs drafted in 2006 and Poppinga was the 14th LBer taken in 2005.
It's certainly early but I think Brady will turn-out better than several
LBs drafted before him. AJ is going to be a stud and I'm very hopeful
about Abdul too. I really believe the LBs are a fixed position now. Nice
reserves in Ben Taylor (who's starting material) and I like Roy Manning
plus he's a good ST player. 7:20 PM 5/13/2006: Initial 53-man Roster WAG [offense-25/26; defense-24/25]: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ I'm sure you've seen initial roster WAGs by various
people...here's mine (obviously subject to change)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 9:27 PM 5/6/2006: ...that is LFT as my GBPDG friends say...Anyway, I went golfing today. Beautiful day but not a beautiful game (3-over bogey score [par 72]). Had a few beers during the round and finished-off the 19th hole with a couple of 'Oil Cans' [Fosters] so all is/was good. IIRC, before I left to go play I updated the cappage after the below blog entry...in case anybody cares that is... I’ve had a few eMails from this
‘cappage list’ which is always a good thing for me…means somebody reads
my stuff anyway. :^)
[she told me I better post her picture or she’d kick my ass…] Btw, Tom Silverstein got Woodson’s 2006 base salary wrong…
…but Pete Dougherty got it right. I’m thinking about making a WAG on AJ’s pending cap number. Media speculation is he’ll eat-up about 1/3 of the rookie pool which sounds about right…but I’m still gonna have to sleep on it at least one more night. I have added-in 12 UDFAs but only their base [all @ $275k – rookie/1st-year minimum]. I’m sure a few of them got a Signing Bonus but I have NFI who or how much. 8:26 AM 5/6/2006: Not that long ago, I had the Packers at
$12,654,908 under the NFL's maximum cap figure. My how the draft changes
things... Wow, quite the whirlwind player acquisition foray by ol' Ted
eh? I hate to say it but he sure appears to have a lot of "Ron Wolf
type" tendencies in him... This off-season, he's used *every* player
acquisition avenue available. 9:15 PM 5/4/2006: Several changes/charges to the 2006 cap. Most notable is Charles Woodson's cap number for 2006. Reporting by PackerNews and JSO is similar that they round-up his total cap figure to $6.7m but if you add the respective amounts individually the total cap number is less than $6.7m. Btw, big thanks to Derek for the PackerNews link. "Mike S" sent the following link & question about Javon Walker:
Javon's actual base salary is scheduled to be $1.15m (according to NFLPA). JWalk counts $855k in "dead cap" for 2006, i.e., his "cap hit" (2006 was his last year under contract). Bottom line: Packers are able to reinvest the $1.15m but the Total Cap Savings is $1.15m minus the cap value for player #51. The Packers are now $12,654,908 under. 2:41 PM 4/30/2006: Wow, the draft is almost over. Lots of different media opinions out there. It's been nice listening to William Henderson's commentary on how things have gone or could go. Some fans may be dismayed that Javon Walker was traded or that they didn't get enough for him. While I'll miss Javon's play for the Packers, I still have him in fantasy football so I'm good either way. WRT maybe not getting enough for him...well, by my slanted view they got three players in the draft: Colledge, Blackmon, and Ty Culver. Not bad at all IMO!... Maybe you also factor-in Johnny Jolly (#183) too...then it's a four-for-one trade. Not quite a Hershal Walker trade by any stretch of the imagination but again, not bad in today's NFL trading post. Even though I wanted Big Vern, I'm extremely pleased the Hawk has landed in GB! HUGE, HUGE impact player based-on everything I've heard and seen on tape. Yeah, Mark Slereth <sp> was a beyoch in his commentary about Hawk but WhoCares (btw, that's also the name of my JMMFFL team)?...I don't. Wow, also got Abdul Hodge. Nicky Barnett, & AJ as the book-end LBs with Hodge in the middle...LB sure went from a weakness to a strength in one day! I know my Big 'Lil Bro is a very happy Packer Backer because of it. The WR position looks good to me. DD, RG, and Marc Boerigter is a solid trio. It wasn't too long ago that Brett was chucking the rock to the likes of Antonio Freeman and Bill Schroeder. What he has now is much better than those two. Toss-in the draft picks and there ya have it...not bad because the draft picks are return guys with good RAC and should be able to play in the slot as the 4/5 guys. I think Fergy's days are numbered. Would be nice to get something for him but I'm not counting on it. ...maybe a 7th round pick tops. However, I'd keep Fergy before David Martin. I suppose one need, or at least questionable area, that hasn't been looked at in the draft is kicker/punter. Hell, who do the Packers have on the roster...(I know who, just being facetious). I'd have no problem if TT was able to draft the Kicker from Ohio St. If not, I'm sure they'll go the UDFA route to add another leg into the mix. 10:56 PM 4/26/2006: Based on ESPN and JSO reporting, I'm jumping the gun and taking a self-educated WAG for Charles Woodson's 2006 cap number. See the cap page for results. The Packers also signed some DL guy who played with the Giants last season, so he's also in the top 51 for salary cap purposes. Packers went from ~$19m to ~13m with a stroke of the pen by Sir Charles. He's won't be confused with Reggie, but I firmly believe this is a momentous signing. No, not as important as Reggie's was...signing Woodson certainly is a few pegs down but he will have major impact. I think he can and will be a positive influence for Ahmad Carroll. We're going to be 'tight' at CB this season!!! 6:41 PM 4/26/2006: Well, I haven't read 'ole dYlan's article yet [see below] but the title sure is catchy. '...end to strange offseason'...I suppose one could think that way but I don't think it was overly strange at all. However, I think there was much media hype about nothing. There was never a doubt [well maybe .1%] in my mind that Brett would return for the 2006 season. In fact, he actually leaves it open for a 2007 return [which I think is highly likely at this point].
I haven't read my eMail group yet but the PackersNews' Poll is interesting.
Btw, I voted for "Yes, the Packers need Favre" because they didn't
list a 'Always thought he'd be back' voting line. That said, my initial WAG is his 2006 cap value will be in the neighborhood of $8 million...obviously base, PRSB, and likely some other LTBE amount (possibly $3m or more). 7:47 PM 4/21/2006: I'm going to jump the "official announcement" and consider it a done deal [WRT my cappage]. His remaining PRSB ($885,000) accelerates into 2006 which makes his total 2006 PRSB $1,180,000 and total cap value is now $1,355,000.
1:18 PM 4/16/2006: Although the Packers have signed a couple of players (K Rhys Lloyd and WR Leo Bookman) there is no-change to the cap (except for unknown daily off-season workout expenditures). However, I have added them to the spreadsheet. Both are first year minimum total salary which is not in the top 51. If you're interesting in reading my feelings on the current roster click the editorial link... Finally, I've been asked about the 2007 cap. I dunno, haven't looked at it and don't plan on it until after the draft picks are signed. 11:48 AM 4/2/2006: In the AmCapNFL, Adam JT13 shared an eMail with the group, dated 1 April, that listed the Cap Status totals for all 32 teams. The Packers are $19,016,905 under (#2 behind San Diego). Based on my previous number of $18,365,375, my difference was $651,530. After further review, I discovered a couple of errors on my part:
8:15 PM 3/29/2006: PackersNews.com reports the contract numbers for Marc Boerigter, Najeh Davenport, Ben Taylor, and Billy Cundiff. Available cap space is $18,365,375. 1:00 PM 3/25/2006: On 24 March 2006, Bob McGinn reported the Packers had '...about $20 million' of available cap space. My number was $341,005 less. Since then, the Packers signed K Billy Cundiff and LB Ben Taylor. The cap amounts I'm listing for each is a WAG at this point. Available cap space is also a WAG at ~$18,838,995. 6:34 PM 3/23/2006: Thanks to those who've sent eMail. Updates for today include William Henderson, Rod Gardner, additional details for Tracy White, and Harry Williams is released. My spreadsheet now says $19,653,995 under. For those of you that are somewhat upset with Ted Thompson for not spending enough money in free agency, there's still plenty of time to do so regardless whether there are any "big names" left to spend it on. Maybe they'll extend some of their young guys who have signed their tenders and things of that nature. Having a large cap cushion is not a bad thing even if it's well into the season... It appears that the Packers didn't have a chance to match the Colts offer to Vinatieri nor could they match the dome appeal... Julian Peterson never left the West Coast but I'm not sure I would want the Packers to spend that amount anyway. 4:40 PM 3/21/2006 - "Big Thanks!" to Derek Swanson for sending me the link for Ryan Pickett's contract details. Instead of being $23,356,155 under, my spreadsheet now says $21,431,155. 1:11 PM 3/21/2006: I was on vacation for a few days and I'm trying to get caught-up. All transactions that I've accounted for in the salary cap spreadsheet, in conjunction from all-sources I've read, indicate the Packers are in the neighborhood of $23,356,155 under the cap. Packers' transactions for this cap update:
-- No numbers on William Henderson's contrat at NFLPA as of 1:36 PM
3/21/2006; same goes for Rod Gardner...neither are in the spreadsheet. 5:28 PM 3/15/2006: Updated Aaron Kampman's numbers based on JSO reporting. Added Marquand Manuel. However, his base salary numbers at NFLPA differ from JSO reporting. $28,140,755 under (give or take). 8:27 PM 3/13/2006: NFLPA WEB sites lists Aaron Kampman's base salary at $900k. If his cap value is ~$6m then either his PRSB or LTBE increases by ~$287k. Although the NFLPA WEB site hasn't recalculated in the $40k increase of base for each applicable player, I decided to do it at this time (thus the $1.61m difference with McGinn). Still haven't seen a total cap number for Manuel... Sure seems like they're waiting on Ryan Pickett's decision before they go fishing again. So far it's been good IMO. Sure Ahman and Kampy are your own, but it was a good thing to resign them and it cannot be overlooked. TT is obviously impressed with Manuel and provided the press with a nice report. Sounds like he could compliment Nick(y) Collins well. I'm waiting for a splash at LB but don't mind pursuing Ben Taylor. He'd be an upgrade over Lenon and is starter quality too. Julian Peterson and Adam Vinatieri are still available...all is good. 7:37 PM 3/12/2006: Just saw McGinn's number about 30 minutes ago which forced me to recalculate. His number was 'as of Friday' [10 March 2006]. Kampman's extension was announced Friday so I'll presume McGinn's number included Kampman at ~$6m total cap value...or 5.68% if you're a player. I'm also presuming the Option Bonus for Rogers and Collins were prorated equally over the remaining four years on their respective contracts. If I do those things, then my cap number matches McGinn at $30.504 million under. As soon as the media reports Manuel's final numbers, then he can be added in. 1:05 PM 3/12/2006: I'm still unable to actually reconcile my -3,078,525 difference with Clayton (as of 10 March 2006 when he said $35m under). However, I'm presuming the option bonuses for Rogers and Collins have been exercised and prorated by the Packers [see 12 March 2006 projection]. Under that assumption, I have a balanced spreadsheet. I have some facts and presumptions...
[Big sigh of relief] Extending Aaron Kampman is *huge* but "Super"
Mario is still a top draft consideration (IMO). Can't tell by the above
blurb what Kampy's contact break-out is for cap purposes. $11m in
guarantees doesn't sound bad over 5-years...the $25m total projection
sounds better than KVdB's.
I think the rest of the "guaranteed $11m" could be in first-year
salary and other bonus (LTBE) amounts (e.g., option, roster, reporting).
My projection for Aaron Kampman: 11:29 AM 3/11/2006: The CBA extension is obviously a good thing and I always thought it would get done. There's tons of reporting on it via the WEB...and too many links to list. Minimum salary amounts increase by $40k and I've updated the cap page to reflect the affected players [Bottom line is it ate $1.315m]. Additionally, I adjusted Ahman Green's number based on further reporting WRT his contract details. Additionally, his 2006 cap number will increase by $31,250 for every game he is on the roster ($500k maximum). Finally, some of his NLTBE incentives could easily be reached ($2.25m maximum). John Claytons new cap figures on 10 March state the Packers were $35 million under the 2006 salary cap of $102 million. That's a (+) $3,078,525 difference from what I had on the 9th. My current WAG on the difference is the option bonus amounts for Aaron Rogers ($3m) and Nick(y) Collins ($1m) were paid and prorated over the 2006-2009 seasons. If that's the case, I can match Clayton's number give or take a few dollars. Aaron Kampman has apparently been resigned but contract details have not been reported (yet). I think it's great because he was their #1 priority (IMO). Javon Walker is a big negative with his media demands. I think Ted Thompson addressed the situation quickly and firmly. Although I had some issues with things Thompson did/didn't do in 2005, I'm really starting to like him as a GM. 4:55 PM 3/7/2006: I updated the 2006 salary cap yesterday. What happened?...well, I'm sure you heard Ahman Green was re-signed to a one-year deal. I think it's great news, but I'm a homer. Obviously a Packers' fan, but I also live near Omaha, NE...Ahman's home-town. It appears he'll only count around $2m towards the cap because it seems the remaining ~$3m is in incentives. [which I'm presuming are NLTBE] Just visited KFFL for this update on his contract details:
A JSO article today says the
Packers will sign S Marquand Manuel out-the-chute. To be quite
honest, I haven't seen him play much and he's not who I envisioned
getting. But, he sounds like an upgrade at safety along side Nick(y)
Collins. I like Manuel's size and that he's been thought of as a special
teams' demon. 9:48 AM 3/4/2006:
Roster moves - "the Packers made one-year qualifying offers to
defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins and nose tackle Colin Cole and signed
cornerback Jason Horton to a one-year contract. Kenny Peterson is the
only one of the Green Bay Packers' three restricted free agents to
receive a qualifying offer." [Note: Players count vs the salary cap if
they receive a tender.] 7:56 PM 3/2/2006: I've updated the 2006 cap page. Clayton's number ($23.5m under) appears to be using the top 53 base salaries. Additionally, he has not accounted for the 2006 'cap adjustment' of $1.6m (for Craig Nall's UnEarned 2005 LTBE) [which actually doesn't count until the 2006 year begins]. $700k of Robert Ferguson's originally reported 2006 'salary' of $2.1m is actually LTBE. The Packers are being charged $153,890 for 2006 workout bonus [but I don't know the specific player breakout]. Additionally, Na'il Diggs has been cut. 3:07 PM 2/28/2006: I've updated the 2006 cap page. I visited NFLPA today to check-on player base salaries and noticed I didn't have Garrett Cross listed. Kurt Campbell and Chaz Williams' salaries are $235k instead of $310k. Additionally, I discovered Robert Ferguson was listed for $1.4m instead of $2.1m. I'm not sure if PFW used $1.4m or $2.1m in their 20 Feb 06 report...so my difference with them is either -610,974 or -1,310,974. Hopefully, it's the lesser amount... I'm sure many of you have seen Tom Silverstein report the Packers are $19.7m under. I don't know how he got that number and he hasn't answered my eMail. 4:50 PM 2/25/2006: In my previous BLOG, I said Rob Davis was the only off-season 'workout' LTBE factored in. My Mistake! The actual 2006 'workout bonus' data I have is on the following players: Carroll, Barnett, Rob Davis, and Jon Ryan [I'm unsure about Robert Thomas so I won't consider his $10k amount as a 'workout bonus']. Additionally, the eight players allocated to NFL-E for 2006 do not receive 'workout bonus' (LTBE) amounts and typically neither do draft picks or UDFAs.
For 2005, the information I have indicates the Packers paid $189,570 in off-season 'workout bonus' money to 35 players. Except for Carroll ($30k) and Barnett (~$38k), the highest individual amount was $6,160 (x6), and the lowest was 1,210 (x4).
Although the 2006 'cap adjustment' for Un-Earned 2005 LTBE (a.k.a. 'LTBE loophole') does not officially count until the 2006 cap year starts <~ 3 March>, I am including it -- PFW doesn't and I don't believe any other media source has either. 2/22/2006 7:27PM: I've updated the cappage because Rob Davis was signed. I've also included an adjustment amount and a new 'actual cap space?' amount. PFW recently released cap amounts for all teams but they didn't include the 'LTBE loop-hole' amounts ($1.6m for Craig Nall). With that amount factored in, I was still -791,694. Part of the difference could be attributed to PFW (or source) 'rounding' their numbers. Another factor is LTBE to players for their off-season workouts. A player receives $110/day 'workout bonus' over a 16 week period (64 days maximum). I have not factored in the off-season workout bonus LTBE for any players (except Rob Davis). Looks like 23,344,280 is the number right now... 7:21 PM 2/19/2006: According to (ESPN Insider) John Clayton,
"the Titans prevented their most important free agent from leaving by
reaching a four-year, $21 million deal with Pro Bowl defensive end Kyle
Vanden Bosch. Included in the deal is about $15 million of guarantees."
3:47 PM 2/18/2006: Continuing on with my projection WAGs...Still need one starting OL and one LB via FA. Also want to resign some/the rest of our FAs - but project we lose Grady, KBarry, and Najeh. It's a coin-flip between OL and LB...are you offensive or defensive minded? Where does the best remaining value lie? Can the Packers satisfy both OL and LB via FA and spend the bucks to do so? I'm sure there are other questions too. LeCharles Bentley is my preference...or at least how the coin-flip lands. Other than maybe Julian Pederson, Bentley will be the most expensive acquisition. I think he would be worth it too and definitely fill a glaring need. It might be low, but I think they could get him for ~$11.75m in guarantees over the first two years with $8.5m of that paid in 2006. Four-year deal worth $18.25m. Packers could have ~$5.35m remaining without touching the projected cap cushion or rookie 'mini-cap.' Still enough room to grab one of the FA LBs but Julian Pederson is definitely out of the picture at this point. However, the 2006 cap value, for the LB, should not exceed $2m. 1:16 PM 2/18/2006: Excerpts from: [AmCapNFL] 'What happens in 2006 if 2007 is uncapped'
5:59 PM 2/15/2006: I've revised the 2006 cappage to include two new columns (suggestion by dave in tx) on the far right called "pre-LTBE recoup" and "post-LTBE recoup" that depict the actual $$ amount the Packers will be able to reinvest. "Pre-June caphit" and "Post-June caphit" depict the sum of the 2006 PRSB plus all remaining PRSB from future seasons and any Reporting Bonus (paid) if applicable. 4:41 PM 2/14/2006:
http://members.cox.net/cappage/2006cap_proj3.htm
Cap Projections ptIII. OK, part II is still applicable. However, the
2006 cap is projected to be $93m (data I hadn't seen before Miguel
showed me -- a $1m increase). To be on the safe side, I'm going to
project a $5m cap cushion and $6m for draft picks. I think they
can easily resign Gardner, Henderson, and Ahman. Gardner wants to
return and will accept the 3rd WR role with the chance to compete for
the #1/2 position with DD and JWalk. Obviously, Garder is #3 in this
trio. He's signs a reasonable 4-yr contract with $4m guaranteed/paid in
2006. Henderson resigns for 3-yrs and has a 2006 cap value of
$1.025m...total package worth $4.235m. Ahman resigns for a 1-yr vet
minimum base deal + 25k SB and NLTBE of ~$1m. Anyway, those signing are
more fantasy WAGs...but plausible IMO. 11:28 PM 2/11/2006: http://members.cox.net/cappage/2006cap_proj2.htm
9:06 PM 2/11/2006: The initial RFA tenders I've seen are somewhat contradicting. 2006 is still a capped year so mentioning 'uncapped' is irrelevant. $685k - $721k is the likely range for the RFA low-tender (I used $685k). I don't see Peterson or Chatman being in the middle-tender category. Packers will most likely be in the top five/ten for available cap space and only have 4.58% waste of the projected $92m (minimum) cap (per Miguel's research). I'm now projecting ~$24.8m under if Diggs and Roman are cut [plus adding in all tenders (R/EFA)]. 5:42 PM 2/9/2006: I've updated the 'players file' that contains contract data I've collected from the WEB. I've also made a couple of tweaks to the 2006 cappage. I increased Clifton's and Franks' PRSB and added OL Wayne Lucier. I'm thinking BJ Sander gets cut and they keep the Canadian instead.
4:27 PM 2/5/2006: For random reasons, I have racked 'n'
stacked
*my* favorite UFA players (79 total). I'm not going to focus on a
salary WAG for these guys but they definitely fit my idea of a starter
or high value depth. I'm sure you'll quibble with the ranking but that's
OK. I think the most needed positions are starters first (and foremost),
then go for depth. In FA I'm looking for starters (and 3rd WR, or 3rd
DB, etc. can be considered starters in my book). 02/04/2006: I created a 2006 projection which includes tenders for RFA (WAG 10% increase from 2005) and EFA players. Additionally, I think Na'il Diggs (99.9% certain) and Mark Roman (>50%) will be released. Additionally, "Dead Money" amounts (i.e., PR$B) for some players could increase based on the following CBA excerpt (*Side Letter 11/1/95: Sec. 1):
My interpretation of "shall be..." is that the team has the option but is not mandated to do so. The Packers have done so in the past (e.g., Ahmad Carroll and I believe Javon Walker)...they'll have plenty of 2006 cap room to use this option on a few others (except maybe rookies due to the "rookie cap"). Ferguson and maybe a few others will also be "cap casualties." It doesn't matter when they cut Ferguson because his 'cap hit' won't change whenever he's cut. Guys like Adrian Klemm will because of their LTBE amounts. I also expect the Packers will use a TAG designation on Longwell or Kampman but have not included it in my projection. Major Needs (i.e., starters) in no particular order: Two OL (might have one already on roster in addition to Wells whom I'm counting on to start); Safety (Roman's replacement - he's not on the roster yet); One LB (I'm counting on Poppinga to start); DE (if Kampman doesn't return); and PK (if Longwell leaves). 02/04/2006: I updated Ahmad Carroll's 2006 PR$B and added punter Jon Ryan. Ryan signed a 3-yr deal that included a $35k signing bonus. His base salaries are: $235k (2006), $310k (07), and $368,750 (08). Ryan's 2006 cap value will be at least $246,667 (base +11,667 PR$B) but could be as high as $252,500 (base + 11,667 PR$B + 5,833 [50% max of] uncapped yrs PR$B). My previous total available cap space (on 28 Jan 06) was $21,717,860 but is now $21,643,360. Not too shabby if you ask me! Jon Ryan is an intriguing punter with a big leg...I'm glad he kept
the Packers on his radar scope. I wonder if he's a good holder or
if the Packers will again carry two punters. ;^>...
Some of the color/background differences in the 2006 cappage are as follows: White background - players that I think won't make the final 53; Blue on gray background - LTBE, which could change; Bold red on gray background - new PR$B adjustments; Bold Black on gray background - Starters; Italic Black on gray background - potential cap cuts or retirement; Black on gray background - reserves that will make final 53. 01/26/2006: This isn't a cap update and I've checked to see if they signed anybody...they haven't. A friend of mine wrote the following: When the Packers visit Brett's house, maybe they'll bring with them a check to the tune of $7.5m...that should put a sparkle in Deanna's eyes. I certainly wouldn't snub my nose at that check.
01/24/2006: This isn't a cap update and to be honest I haven't checked to see if there's been any new "futures" FA signings... Oh well...enough of my rambling. I'm looking forward to the FA season, then draft. I've seen some recent discussions WRT how many needs (player replacement) the Packers have. I don't agree with the contention but what the hay, it's their opinion. Mine is TT's looking to win now, not three years from now, will look to score a few very good additions to the team and is confident in the guys he wants to return. I do not believe he thinks a full-blown team rebuild is necessary and think he's confident Brett will return (but, obviously, all of this is JMO).
01/12/2006: I updated the 2006 cappage. I screwed-up on Brett's PR$B (-$400k). I also added two columns: 'Pre-Jun* caphit' and 'Post-Jun caphit', the purpose should be evident. The guys that do not have numbers in those columns (i.e., blanks) are players I'm convinced will be on the final 2006 roster. I've also added 2006 FA lists for OL, LB, and RB. None of the lists are not racked'n'stacked by my preference except for the top 5-10 players. Some of my preferred FAs will most likely be TAGed. 01/08/2006: Well, we're in the off-season now...funny/sad not being able to watch the Packers in the playoffs. I'm sad Sherman was fired too... Oh well, shit happens. March onward to 2006, and may good things happen; winning ways return. There will be lots of draft talk until it happens. I've already seen lots and have participated. Should get a good one at number five... Still, they cannot overlook FA. Why?...because it starts before the draft. Currently, for 2006, my WAG is the Packers have at least $20+ million to play with and 53 players under contract. The "Rule of 51" is in effect. They're in GREAT SHAPE cap wise to spend big bucks! ...but still leave a nice cushion for 2006 reserve spending just in case. My $20+ million WAG is based on speculation the cap will be $90 million...it could be more. I'm also guessing the Pack was able to 'carry forward' at least an additional $1 million or more into 2006. I haven't compiled a full listing of the FA positions for 2006. However, I know Steve Hutchinson's contract expires and he made $2.5m in 2005. I think the Seahawks will TAG him but I tell ya, if they let him test the market I'd be the first caller... Ted Thompson was in Seattle when Hutch was drafted but I don't know if Hutch was "Ted's Guy" or not. Besides, Holmgren was and is grand puba out there. Title doesn't mean anything if you have the power. Anyway, I digress...the Pack has $$ to spend. I've looked at safeties not under contract in 2006. Adam Archuleta is on the list and *maybe* the Rams let him test the waters. I really like him as a player/playmaker. He would be a tremendous upgrade over Mark Roman. I haven't looked closely at OL other than Hutchinson (LG) and Toni Fonuti (RG). They're really the only two I'm enamored with. Fonuti is simply a monster! There is a massive number of RBs entering FA... I say look to FA first, then fill-in via draft but certainly take your highest rated players on the draft board. |
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