Arizona's own EspressoPundit

      Ruminations of an over-caffeinated political junkie

June 30, 2006

It may not be the Dirtiest...but it's looking like the Pettiest

The CD 8 Democratic Primary is becoming a real hoot.  It seems that Weiss's folks have noticed that Gabby Giffords was a registered Republican just prior to running for Legislative office. 

Of course, I don't recall the Progressive Wing of the Democratic Party mentioning that Verkamp was a Republican Legislator for a decade. 

Tedski at RRR made the mistake of poking a little fun at the absurdity of someone questioning Gabby's Democratic credentials by pointing out that Weiss hired someone who used to be a Republican and...the new hire is also (Gasp) an ASU grad.

The 26 (and counting) comments are interesting...but the escalation is hilarious.  Check these out.

It's going to be a long summer if these guys don't lighten up. 

In her acclaimed book Godless, Ann Coulter… 

Acclaimed?  Ann Coulter?  I would never write a sentence like that.  Why?  Maybe because half of you consider Ann Coulter to be an idiot and her book is so well known that adding a modifier is condescending.  After all, this is a blog…I have standards.

How about this sentence from Thursday’s Republic.

A U.S. Marine with Arizona ties who appeared in Michael Moore's acclaimed documentary Fahrenheit 9/11 has died in a roadside bombing in Iraq.

Frankly, the reporter, Lindsey Collom, reveals a lot about herself when she describes Fahrenheit 9/11 as “acclaimed.”  I would prefer "fraudulent," or "factually challenged" however, I think that if it must be modified, "controversial" is probably the best you can do. 

But she goes on to prove she is completely tone deaf when we learn the rest of the story. 

Plouhar didn't realize the movie would be critical of the war and he was later disappointed by the film, his family said.

"He thought it was a documentary for the History Channel," his wife said. "He felt like he was betrayed and not told the whole truth. . . . They tricked him into it."

Here’s another example of how reporters either allow their bias to sneak into their reporting, or intentionally attempt to manipulate the reader.  Republic reporter Colleen Sparks should get a job with some campaigns, because she knows how to write a hit piece. 

The gratuitous reference to aggressively pushing conservative social agendas is an obvious attempt by the reporter to discredit her testimony by implying Knaperek is some sort of zealot who constantly cries wolf. 

June 29, 2006

District 6 Meltdown 

I mentioned that Carl Seel was going to challenge Clancy Jayne's signatures.  Here's the case. 

But in an interesting twist, Clancy is challenging Seel.

And someone is going after Ted Carpenter.

Update:  Carpenter turned 759 signatures, which is technically described as a boatload.  So I've been asking around and the word on the street is that he may have signed the back of petitions that he didn't actually circulate.  With the pressure of gathering nearly 1,000 signatures, it's easy to simply sign the back of a couple sheets, but it's a very serious violation. 

If it can be demonstrated that Carpenter signed even one sheet that he didn't circulate, he will  be forced to drop out. 

You Can Skip Rimsza

I mentioned last week that it looked like Rimsza was short on signatures. 

He dropped out yesterday.

All the News that's Fit to Bury

Jimmy Pederson had a pre-trial conference today.  That's not really news, but as I recall, Cliff Bennett's pre-trial conference was on B1. 

Credit Where it is Due

I'm occasionally critical of the Arizona Republic, but I'm quick to give them credit when it is due. 

The fake "Goldwater Concentration Camp" story ran in hundreds of papers, including the Star and Tribune--but not the Republic.

The Republic deserves a some criticism for posting the original Spanish version on AZcentral, but the folks at the print version must have realized that it looked fishy. 

What's Up Doc?

The PHX Kid posted this comment about Steve Huffman on Tedski's RRR site.

A case could be made that he is the Republican who cannot win in November. One reason is that the “looney tunes wing” of the party will not come to the aid of Steve. He ate lunch with the fat cats and they can put him office. Certainly the pro-life social conservatives in the GOP are not going to spending October (Respect Life Month) walking door to door for ‘ol Steve. Maybe Click and Diamond will do some precinct walking to support their boy.

I love the smell of wishful thinking in the morning. 

Let me assure you that if Huffman is the nominee, he will have all the grassroots support that he can handle.  I walked for Kolbe in 1984 and I will be happy to walk for Huffman in 2006. 

It will be tough for Huffman and Hellon to beat Graf.  But pro-life Republicans know that they do themselves a disservice by sitting on their hands in November.

A Quick note on the Texas Redistricting Case

The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that the mid year redistricting that was engineered by Tom Delay is, in fact, constitutional.  Kennedy voted with the Conservatives to uphold the redistricting, but he sided with the liberals to force the state to redraw one district to increase Hispanic representation.

The media are portraying this as a mixed decision.  Here's a great example.  The media have completely missed the boat--partly out of wishful thinking, partly because the liberal wing of the court wrote this opinion and partly because very few people understand the dynamics of redistricting. 

Here's a key line.

The court ruled that the redrawn district violated the Voting Rights Act - which protects minority voting clout.

How does the court protect minority voting clout?  By packing them all into one district.  Democrats would prefer to spread minorities around in multiple districts, although doing so would enhance DEMOCRATIC representation, it would dilute MINORITY representation. 

The Arizona Democrats are starting to develop pretty strong bench--Steve Owens, Chuck Blanchard, Fred Duval and Chris Cummiskey for example are extremely talented and well positioned.  But they had better keep their day jobs because the Supreme Court just ensured that they don't have any place else to go. 

June 28, 2006

Spitzer takes one for the Team

The Republican Party owes a big thanks to Marc Spitzer for his willingness to drop his Corporation Commission bid before his FERC appointment was confirmed by the U.S. Senate.

Spitzer was a child prodigy chess player and he can probably still give you the first 12 moves of Queen's Gambit Accepted.  Chess players don't like to make a move unless they know what's going to happen. 

However, ballots are being printed in early July and if they went to press with Spitzer's name on them, the Republicans would likely have to forfeit the seat.  Democrats would win their first ACC race since Renz Jennings was re-elected in 1992. 

Spitzer's leap in the dark is an indication that he's pretty confident that he will be confirmed but it also demonstrates that he is willing to take a risk and put the interests of the team above his own. 

June 26, 2006 

Rio Dinero:  Fool Me Once...

If you follow the Legislative debates over big money public projects you will note a pattern.  When the projects are before the Legislature, everything is wonderful.  Then the bill passes and we learn that the project is behind schedule, over budget, etc. 

But usually it takes more than a day. 

The extension of Tucson's Rio Nuevo project was this year's big public works battle.  The Governor signed the bill on Friday.  On Saturday we learned that things aren't exactly what they seem.

A block of fruit trees and a couple of crosswalks rarely cost almost $1 million — except when the city's Rio Nuevo district is involved.

The district — which got a 12-year, $600 million extension on Wednesday — is currently slated to pay almost $1 million to build some crosswalks, do sidewalk repair and plant fruit trees as part of a plan to replace the Martin Luther King Jr. public housing complex on the east end of Downtown

The funds were supposed to go for a 1.5-acre grass and concrete plaza opposite the Train Depot. It was to be a "showplace" with "lots of trees, lots of lighting and lots of places for people to sit," public art and a fountain, said Emily Nottingham, the city's community services director and her deputy, Jack Siry, at the time the money was approved.

Dang, next we are going to find out that light rail is behind schedule, the civic center is over budget and all these stadiums operate at a loss.  D'oh

June 23, 2006

Anatomy of a Hit Piece:  Mexican media claims Goldwater Proposes Concentration Camps

The mainstream media--the Republic in particular--are so smug about their standards of accuracy and fairness.  Falling circulation and the distain in which journalists are held indicate that readers aren't falling for it. 

It only takes one or two completely fictional accounts like this one from the Spanish section of AZcentral to turn people away. (I've included the original Spanish text with my lame attempts at translation below each paragraph.)

El aspirante republicano a la gobernación de Arizona, Don Goldwater, propuso el establecimiento de campos de concentración para inmigrantes indocumentados cerca de la frontera, a quienes se les obligaría a construir el muro fronterizo

"Arizona Republican Gubernatorial candidate Don Goldwater proposed the establishment of concentration camps for undocumented immigrants near the boarder from which they would be required to build the boarder wall. "

Goldwater afirmó recientemente que su intención es detener a los indocumentados en campos de concentración para usarlos "como mano de obra en la construcción de un muro y limpiar las áreas del desierto de Arizona que ensucian a su paso".

"Goldwater recently confirmed that his intention is to detain the undocumented in concentration camps in order to use them 'as manual labor in the construction of a wall and cleaning of the desert areas of Arizona that they polute in passing.'"

Needless to day, Goldwater has never proposed housing illegal aliens in  "concentration camps" and a Google search of the English press has zero references to Goldwater and concentration camps. 

Update:  The story has gone international and is spreading like a forest fire.  Here it is in the Washington Post

No one seems to be interested in determining if the original story in the Mexican paper is accurate. 

No one is asking "When did he say this, why isn't it in quotes?"

Turn out the lights in The CD 8 Primary

The Party's over:  Patty Weiss up by 10 Points

Celinda Lake is working with Patty Weiss and has released these poll results. 

Here's the memo from Patty's site.

"Weiss leads the Democratic primary ballot by ten points
with 32% support (23% strong), Gabrielle Giffords has 22% support (16% strong), Jeff Latas has 7%, Alex Rodriguez has 6%, Francine Shacter has 1% and 32% are undecided."

I've said all along that 20 year of TV is insurmountable.  Patty's poll numbers are classic for a TV candidate.  She is known  by 75% of Democratic primary voters and 63% view her favorably. 

Giffords actually polls very high for a Legislator.  Forty percent of Democratic primary voters know who she is and 34% view her favorably. 

So if 100 Democrats go to the polls, 75 will have heard of Weiss and 64 will say that they like her.  Forty will say that they have heard of Giffords and 34 will say that they like her. 

I think the last part is key.  If 100 Democrats go to the polls, twice as many like Patty...obviously one person can like both.  I think that's an indication that many of the undecided 32% know and like Weiss but aren't familiar with Giffords.  Giffords has to introduce herself to that 32% and convince them to support her over Weiss--whom they know and like.  That strikes me as a very high hurdle. 

Giffords can't win unless she can go really negative and drives down Weiss's favorable rating.  I frankly don't think that's possible.  The women are essentially the same on the issues and there is no way to attack Weiss personally. 

Weiss on the other hand needs to keep her mouth shut, smile, wave and talk in platitudes about getting the country back on track.  It's her race to lose. 

Unless Weiss spends a lot of time talking about Martian Colonization, the Primary is over.  Weiss wins.

It's the General election that's going to be interesting.

From what I hear, Hellon is running strong, but short on cash, Huffman is perceived to be strongest based on Kolbe's support as well as the Tucson financial crowd.  But the two moderates are on a collision course.  Hellon's last minute attempt to define himself as a conservative is falling on deaf ears.

Does the Steve Aiken story damage Graf?  I doubt it.  He managed to keep it within a few news cycles by acting quickly and we are still in June.  If Graf himself had been involved, or it had been late August, the issue might have stuck, but not now.

So can two well organized, hardworking moderates defeat Graf?  Frankly I doubt it. 

It's going to be interesting. 

Terry's Damned if he Does and Damned if he Doesn't.

Secretary of State Brewer has reviewed the complaint filed against Governor Napolitano's campaign, concluded that the campaign has violated ARS 16-901 and ARS 16-903 and turned the complaint over to the Attorney General. 

Some will claim that it's pure politics.  But no one really disputes that the Governor's  campaign swung into action prior to her filing as a candidate or registering as a political committee.  The violation is clear. 

The question is...what's Terry Goddard going to do about it?  It is, after all, an obvious violation, and his name is going to be on the ballot as well.  Does the base abandon him if he sides with the Republican Party against Janet?  Do swing voters go against him if he sweeps an obvious violation under the rug?

Maybe he could investigate gasoline prices until after the election and hope the compliant goes away. 

You Can't Outbid the Spending Lobby.

Here's a lesson for you.  The legislature bowed to the central-planner  crowd and appropriated $35 million for bio-tech research and here's Jon Talton's reaction. 

My view is that the Legislature dealt a disheartening setback to Arizona after the state had enjoyed a string of advances in building a quality, research-based economy.

Funny, I thought it was a disheartening setback as well, but I guess it was for a different reason. 

Dude, That's what Investment Bankers are For.

Let's face it, if politicians and journalists were qualified to be investment bankers, they would, you know, be investment bankers. 

The Taltons of the world like to point to the "Irish Miracle."  However, they conveniently forget that Ireland's boom started when it slashed tax rates. 

And what's so impressive about having the strongest economy in Europe?  It's like being the biggest kid in 6th grade. 

The journalists and politicians who want to adopt the European economic model of private public partnerships have forgotten that Japan ruined its economy by combining business and government.  Japan Inc. was all the rage until it collapsed in 1988.  They've been bouncing along the bottom for nearly 20 years.

If you want to look at the future of state-sponsored biotech, look across the Atlantic to the disaster that has befallen Airbus.

A little over a year ago, the future looked bright for the European aircraft maker Airbus as its long-awaited flagship, the A380 superjumbo, finally took to the skies.

The affair has created a political storm, which political analyst Dominique Moisi described as "the cost of the dangerous marriage between industry and politics at the level of the elite".

Wow, I couldn't have said it better myself.

"the cost of the dangerous marriage between industry and politics at the level of the elite".

Increasingly Irrelevant

When I ran for office in 1990, the editorial board of the Republic was a mighty force.  I often described the interview with the Board as the most important 15 minutes of the campaign. 

Those days are gone.

During the most recent session, the editorial board had been pounding the no-tax-cut drum for the last month of the session and yet the Legislature passed a $500 million tax cut and Governor Napolitano promtly signed it. 

Why didn't they have any influence on the debate?

One obvious reason is that circulation has dropped despite a massive increase in population, so the paper's penetration has plummeted. 

But there are other reasons as well. 

Talton's diatribe above is a good example.  The spending lobby is never satisfied, so Legislators have no reason to try to appease them. 

Then there is the quality of the argument--or lack thereof. 

Here's a great example from May 31st

With a budget surplus of more than $1 billion, Arizona lawmakers can make investments with big-time payoffs.

They can hand a humming economic machine to future generations by taking such farsighted steps as raising teachers' salaries and boosting medical research.

Later, we learn that:

Making permanent tax cuts based on this one-time surge in income is myopic.

Oh, so the tax cuts are permanent, but the increases in teachers' salaries and medical research are somehow temporary?  Isn't it myopic to spend this "one-time surge in income" on permanent spending increases?

The Governor must feel like Randy Johnson in his Diamondback days.  He would pitch a near perfect game and yet lose for lack of run support.   The Republic blatantly shills for Napolitano, but their arguments are so lame that they don't provide any support. 

June 22, 2006

The Man who Keeps Juan Valdez employed: 

An Interview with Mayor Phil Gordon.

Phil Gordon has been Phoenix Mayor since January 2004.  He attended the University of Arizona and graduated with a bachelor's degree in education. After earning his undergraduate degree, Gordon entered Arizona State University School of Law and graduated cum laude.

Mayor Gordon and I met for coffee at Lux Coffee Bar on Central.  We shook hands and his body guard glanced at my massive 147 pound frame and simply walked back to the car. 

It was time to go.  Only six more coffee meetings left before the Mayor's day is over. 

June 20, 2006

Lost in Translation

We all know that candidates say different things to different audiences.  It's fun to read what candidates tell the Spanish language newspapers.  Here's an article about Gabby Giffords that appeared in La Voz and is translated on her website.  

Here's an interesting  factoid.

Giffords, a 36-year-old third-generation Tucson resident, says she has all the experience the position requires. She’s young, but has an impressive political resume. She represented the 28th District in the State Senate, and the 13th District in the House of Representatives. Giffords was the youngest legislator in Arizona history.

Youngest legislator in Arizona history?  How could she put that on her website?

Actually, she's not even close.  Art Hamilton was elected at 24 and had to sit in the House gallery for the first 2 weeks of session until he turned 25 in mid January. 

There have been dozens of legislators who were younger than Gabby.  I was 27 when I served in the House, and we had an entire under 30 caucus.  We thought we were so cool.  Now it's like looking back at my senior picture--what was I thinking?

Gabby isn't even the youngest person elected to the state senate.  Dean Martin was in his late 20s when he was elected, he's still in the Senate and is 6 years younger than Gabby.

While she's not the youngest legislator in Arizona history, and she's not the youngest person elected to the Senate nor the youngest person in the Senate today, Gabby is the youngest woman to be elected to the Senate. 

That's pretty cool. 

I was the youngest left-handed CPA to chair the House Banking and Insurance Committee.  You should see my tattoo. 

I guess we can both be proud. 

Gabby's Waving the bloody Shirt

“We know that Republicans always want to cut funding for low-income families. A fifth of the residents of Arizona live in low-income situations and so state health care programs should not be cut; it would be very serious to leave children without vaccinations or medical attention,” Giffords said.

That's right, the Republican platform calls for leaving children without vaccinations or medical attention.

Next time someone describes Gabby as "moderate" or non-partisan, remember that she claims Republicans always want to cut funding for low-income families.

I've heard that Republicans hate Latinos too.  But I must have read that somewhere else. 

Gabby on Opening the Border

The Eighth Congressional District is one of the ten districts adjoining Mexico, and it would give her the opportunity to promote a better economic agenda for the residents of Southern Arizona, such as better jobs, fair immigration reform with sanctions against employers and work permits for those who apply for them.

Hmm, for those who apply for them?  For ALL those who apply for them?  Is that the hurdle?  Fill out the application and you are in?  Maybe we could have stacks of applications at the crossing points and you could just get your permit and stick it on your dashboard.  That sounds like an open border to me.

And does anyone in southern Arizona believe that "fair immigration reform with sanctions against employers and work permits for those who apply for them" will bring better jobs to southern Arizona.  That sounds like a plan for Mexico's economy.

Signature Challenges in the Works.

I have had quite a few people tell me that Clancy Jayne doesn't have enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot.  And I'm hearing that Skip Rimza might be short as well. 

I'll check these stories out and get back to you.

Update: I have some numbers and I smell Toast

Clancy needs 421 Signatures.  He turned in 556.

111 of those are clearly out of the district.  Some are from as far away as Apache Junction, Surprise, the City of Maricopa.  Amazingly, Clancy signed the back as circulator of those petitions

68 are not registered

46 are registered as Democrats

10 signed his petition twice

That leaves him exactly 100 signatures short.

I just got off the phone with Carl Seel.  He's a candidate in District 6 and he plans to challenge the signatures this week. 

Second update:

Folks are pointing out that Clancy qualified for clean elections money in January.  How could he be so organized on that front and still miss his signatures?

And what happens to the money?  What if a candidate qualifies for clean elections and then makes a good faith effort to get on the ballot but falls short?  Obviously he returns the unspent money, but is he liable for the remainder?  After all, he was never a candidate. 

Dude, there's no "X" in espresso. 

This guy costs me 250 hits a day.

June 19, 2006

June 16, 2006

District 8:  Ten-Year old Conviction surfaces...

The Citizen's coverage  is here.

Here's the Official Campaign Response.

(Tucson) In response to an ABC News story earlier today, new information contained in that story, and as a result of further investigation into the matter, Randy Graf has terminated his campaign manager, Steve Aiken, effectively immediately. 

In his statement, Graf said “Mr. Aiken represented to me that he had been falsely accused, that the charges were revenge based, and that it all ended with an inconsequential misdemeanor.    Today’s details and revelations of the conviction were alarming and warranted his immediate dismissal.  It is a sad day for all of us because Mr. Aiken has been a hard-working supporter.” 

Regarding the ABC story, Graf was extremely upset with the way the reporter made it seem like Graf was equating sexual misconduct with buying alcohol for a minor.  “I had been told by Mr. Aiken, a former law officer, that what he had been found guilty of was the equivalent of buying beer for a minor and that was what I told the reporter.  I have never equated buying alcohol for a minor with sexual misconduct.  In fact, as a State Legislator I have always worked hard to protect victims of sex crimes and my heart goes out to all of the victims in this case and in every case like this.” 

A new campaign manager will be named shortly.  Until that time, press inquiries should be directed to the campaign office.

###

Bob Robb to Marty Shultz:  Drop Dead

Ok, he didn't really say "drop dead" but he might as well have.  Ouch

Surely the self-proclaimed business leaders in the Valley have lost whatever credibility they might once have had on transportation issues.

They firmly backed Proposition 400 in 2004, extending the half-cent transportation sales tax for the region. Proposition 400 called for spending about half of the new money on transit and local streets. Anyone who said that would shortchange freeway construction was shouted down.

Now, the plan was developed by local government officials through the Maricopa Association of Governments. It is understandable that a plan devised by local government officials would stress transit and local streets. Transit has a noisy constituency in these cities, and local officials are held accountable for local streets in a way they are not for regional freeways.

It was up to the business community, which provides the campaign funding for these things, to act as the honest brokers and ensure that the money went first to the things that moved the most people and goods. They failed, and now they're running around sounding the alarm that freeway construction needs to be accelerated.

Voters and lawmakers, however, shouldn't agree to a single dime in additional funding until there is a radical reprioritization of the existing billions that are already being spent annually on transportation in this state.

June 15, 2006 

Sinema Tired of Serving with "Overweight White Men."

Representative Kyrsten Sinema is making some national news.  Zonitics points out this article in the American Spectator.

"By the year 2020 we will be a majority minority state which means we will have more people of Latino, African American and Native American heritage than of Anglo heritage and I'm really looking forward to the revolution at that time," said Arizona State Representative Krysten Sinema, a self-described former socialist "bisexual criminal defense attorney who represents murderers."

For a moment Sinema basked in the applause, and then said, "Um, I just said that on camera...oops!" Wink, wink. Tee hee hee. Viva La Revoluccion!

The whooping got even louder when Sinema urged the public financing of campaigns to remove "overweight white men" in favor of candidates "more like myself, individuals of an oppressed minority."

Ah yes, the years of oppression endured by bisexual white Democratic lawyers.  Instead of dwelling on the oppression Sinema has endured while, say, returning a Prada bag at Nordstrom, let's focus on the rest of the statement. 

Can you imagine if a white guy said something like this?  Can you imagine if Russell Pearce went to a minuteman meeting and was caught on tape discussing "overweight Hispanic women?"

Will there be any fallout?  Will there be calls for an apology?  Will there be an editorial demanding Sinema's resignation?  Of course not.  The "murderers" that she defended may be unhappy, but the media will be silent. 

When Conservative Representative Kyle Hindman said the word "wetback" in 1990, he was hounded for weeks and forced to apologize. 

But when Democratic Icon Edie Basha compared the folks at Wal-Mart to Nazis, the press snoozed. 

No.  The only place that you will read about Sinema's outrageous comments are the blogs.  The rest of the media will take a bye...so to speak. 

The Candidate filing deadline was Yesterday

Here are some random observations. 

Senators Ron Gould, Robert Blendu, Jay Tibshraeny, Jorge Garcia, and Victor Soltero are already elected.  They have no opponent in either the Primary or the General. 

Reps Brown, Konopnicki, Gallardo, Garcia, McComish, and Robson are unopposed as well. 

Many candidates only face token opposition;  I don't think Ken Cheuvront is going to have too much trouble with Andrew Smigielski. 

All Hands To Battle Stations

Folks are often dismissive of the Party base.  That's because we rarely see an occasion in which the faithful are called upon to act publicly and in unison. 

One of those rare occasions was on display last Tuesday when Senator Chuck Gray realized that he had a typo in his petitions and had to gather all of his signatures in one day. 

Party loyalists descended on Mesa.   Former Senate President Brenda Burns, County Treasurer David Schweikert (Don't call him the Assessor, he gets ticked off) Senate Majority Leader Tim Bee and about half the Legislature together with Party activists, family and friends collected nearly 3,000 signatures in one day.

The maximum number Gray could submit was 1,441, so he had to cull out over half of them. 

Here's the link to the Filings

I use it as a rolodex, because candidates often list their home and cell phone numbers with the Secretary of State

Need to lobby Ken Cheuvront and don't have time to go to his restaurant for lunch?  Call him on his cell phone 340-0301. 

Rum, Romanism and Rebellion Blogger Ted Prezelski...

...Is running for the House.  Considering that he and Tom are twins, confusion is sure to follow. 

Unfortunately, he already sold out.

Prezelski says he might have to drop the snarky tone in his political blog but said it's a great way to keep voters informed.

Informative without the snarky tone?  That sounds like...a newspaper. 

Can I leave a Message For Pete?

Speaking of candidate filings and phone numbers, Pete Rios listed an address in his district, but the phone number looks like his "session" home in Apache Junction.  I'm sure he will be staying in the trailer that he has parked on a friend's lot in Duddlyville, but if you call his house in AJ, I bet you can leave a message.

Stephen Hawking:  A bit behind the Curve

I thought we already knew that. 

June 14, 2006

From Shades of Gray to a Whiter Shade of Pale

Nominating petitions are due today and Senator Chuck Gray discovered yesterday that he has printed the wrong Primary date on all his petitions.  He had dozens of supporters walking door to door last night in an effort to gather all of the signatures in one night. 

Three Articles Caught My Eye Yesterday. 

Republican attorney files for attorney general race

East Valley attorney Bill Montgomery turned in signatures and $5 contributions Monday that qualify him to run for state attorney general in November.

Goddard, the former Phoenix mayor, is favored in the race. Since taking office in 2003, he has focused on consumer issues including protections against high gasoline prices and unnecessary mortgage fees.

Rommel, you magnificent bastard. I read your book.
 

East Valley Attorney--and Republican Attorney General candidate--Bill Montgomery was a tank commander during the first Iraq war.  I think enough time has passed for Americans to vote for a tank commander named Monty--especially if he spends some time prosecuting violent crime instead of meeting with federal leaders, including the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, to talk about the gas situation in the Grand Canyon state and elsewhere in the nation.

Of course, if Monty was running against this guy, he'd get his butt kicked.

I'm All In

I mentioned yesterday that I didn't think it was rational for Mike Harris to run for Governor if he didn't have Goldwater's name, Munsil's organization, or a willingness to put in more money than either of them will get from Clean Elections.  Here's Harris's response.

June 13, 2006

Changing of the Guard

Long-time Legislator Nancy Wessel passed away on June 8th.  She sat to my right in the House Government Operations Committee.  One time I voted against a bill that wasn't harmful, but I thought was particularly silly.  The bill died in committee--a rare victory. 

She voted yes and I rolled my eyes and leaned over and asked her why she was OK with it.  She responded that it was the Speaker's bill. 

I supported the bill when it was resurrected and moved to the House floor.  The bill looked a lot better from the perspective of my new Legislative office near the soft serve machine in the MacDonald's on Van Buren and 18th Avenue. 

A little advice from the old guard never hurts.

A Message from Above. 

Have you ever tried to deal with a city regarding signage?  There are famous examples of cities using heavy handed tactics like the case of Edward Salib, the Winchell's owner from Mesa who dared to cover more than 30% of his window surface with signs advertising donuts and cappuccino.

That was in 1985 and cities have been paranoid about signs and apoplectic about billboards ever since. 

So I'm driving to work the other day and I notice a massive new billboard at 52nd street and the 202.  A new billboard?  On a freeway no less.

The billboard is on the property of "Le Nature's"  new bottling plant.  City code allows a business near a freeway to identify itself with a sign that is up to 48 feet tall and has at most 200 square feet of signage. 

I called the city of Phoenix Sign department and asked about the size of the sign.  Here's the answer that I received. 

I checked into the results from the Board of Adjustments hearing held on 09-01-05. Le Nature was approved to permit a freeway sign with 546 square feet of sign area...So they were allowed to have 346 sq ft. over what the Zoning Ordinance allows."

546 square feet!  Nearly triple the legal limit set in the sign code. 

The city still contends that the sign is only 48 feet high, but check out this picture from street level.  That red spot at the bottom is a truck.  That looks like more than 48 feet to me. 

The sign has an electronic bulletin board that uses scoreboard technology.  It can play any message.  I called the company and they said that the sign allowed them to "advertise their products." Like I said, it's not a sign, it's a billboard.

I called the city and asked about the billboard aspect of the sign.  They confirmed that the company had to have a hearing in order to get approval for the LED display. 

Here is their response.  The company is "approved for a static photo image with text with changes every four (4) minutes."

Wow, what a great deal for them.

I was standing in the parking lot wondering how they got this done.  How could they manage to get a sign that massive with that type of display?

How were they approved for nearly triple the normal amount of signage?

How could they get a design that essentially allows them to put a billboard on an urban freeway? 

Who do you have to know at the city in order to get something like this done?

Then it hit me. 

The answer came to me like a bolt of inspiration. 

A Message from Above.

On the Record.

Late last week I was critical of the media for asking the relatives of a plane crash victim if they had any comment.  I received several letters in support of the reporters.  This one from the Tribune's Le Templar is a good example.

Hi Greg!

I saw your note today about the Republic's coverage of plane crash and your criticism of the effort to speak with a victim's family.

 People react wildly different when they are grieving about the death of a loved one. As you believe, some people want absolutely no public attention and get quite upset when they get a phone call from someone asking "rude" questions. But other times, family members actually are glad someone from the media called, because they want to be sure people know who their loved one really was. Still others just want to talk to anyone and everyone who will listen to their story.

 A reporter never knows how a family's victim is going to react until he or she reaches out. When I first started reporting, I was very reluctant to call families out of concern for their privacy. Then, on two different occasions, my newspaper in Nebraska got angry phone calls from the families demanding to know why we didn't call them first, because my stories had incorrect information provided by the police, funeral home or some other source.

 A polite, sensitive reporter can gently explore a family's willingness to talk, and will back off if they just want to be left alone. It's unfortunate we have some obnoxious people in my business who believe "the story" is more important than a family's suffering. But I think it's unfair of you to castigate a reporter's work unless you know that to be the case in this situation.

Thanks for considering my thoughts,
Le
 

June 12, 2006

Washington Post on Max Fose and Political Email.

Arizona political junkies will know that Governor Napolitano sent thousands of Spam emails to Republican accounts within hours of opening her campaign.

The Clean elections commission is investigating to determine how much of the money spent to build her website and send the emails was spent prior to her filing and prior to her collecting campaign contributions.  Any financial commitments made prior to receiving money are counted as debt.  Accumulating campaign debt is illegal and the penalty SHALL be 10 TIMES the amount of the debt. 

The WAPO article is interesting because Max Fose is running her internet operation and his comments are important to those of us who are watching her campaign. 

But this fact may turn out to be the most interesting.

Campaigns can buy e-mail addresses for about 12 cents per name, retailers say.

Wow, let's say that Max gave her a deal and only charged 10 cents a name.  Further, we will be conservative and estimate that they only sent out 25,000 emails. 

The fine will be 10 times the amount of the violation which is obviously one dollar per email.  In this case $25,000.  It is quite possible that the number of emails could be far in excess of 25,000.

The Clean Elections folks will try to claim that "Shall" means "May" and reduce the fine.  However, this portion of statute is very clear and was implemented by a vote of the people, so even the Legislature is powerless to reduce the fine. 

Here are some other interesting points from the article.

A loophole in election spending regulations is likely to produce a torrent of unsolicited e-mail messages to voters, and widespread complaints about political spam, as the midterm elections approach this fall, political consultants say.

``It provides an enormous opportunity for political campaigns," said Max Fose of Integrated Web Strategy, which also sells e-mail addresses to political campaigns.

"The e-mail loophole will be the vehicle that large donors will use at the last minute to get their message out this year," Fose predicted. "After they've put money everywhere else, the Internet will be the place where they will pour their funds at the end of the campaign season."

Here's an interesting counter point.

Harris Files his Petitions;

Mike Harris filed 7,500 nominating petitions with the Arizona Secretary of State to place his name upon the Republican primary election ballot for Governor.

Well, I was wrong.  I predicted that Harris wouldn't file his petitions. 

Economists assume that the players are rational.  Pundits don't have that luxury.  Harris is self financed, but only willing to put in half the money that he would receive if he were running clean. 

Harris doesn't have Goldwater's name recognition or Munsil's grassroots organization and he will have half as much money as they do. 

His rather messy family situation isn't going to help.  So why waste $250,000 on a lost cause?  Like I said, Economists assume rational behavior...

Don't let Arnold Find You

I'm getting reports that Harris told a Pima County audience last month that he can't go to California to see his 7-year-old because there is a felony warrant out for his arrest for back child support. Claims it is all a misunderstanding and the result of a vindictive ex-wife.

 

June 10, 2006

The Local Yokel speaks

Anonymous Mike at Zonitics points out this funny line by Jon Talton.

I'm sure the local yokel economists will say "everything's fine...really!"

Talton included the line in a rambling piece about Eminent Domain, Zarqawi and estate taxes. 

And indeed, one of our "local yokel economists" had a comment on the topic.  Noble Prize winner Edward Prescott wrote an op ed for the Wall Street Journal in which he supported the repeal of the estate tax. 

ASU's other Nobel Prize winner, Vernon Smith, must not have been available.  Of course, he's no longer local.  I guess a prophet is without honor in his own land. 

What is it about Economics that makes light weights like Talton feel qualified to contradict Nobel Laureates and then call them "yokels"?

The article quotes a Stanford professor who has done extensive research on the topic.  And then "balances" the professor with a local man on the street who has a different opinion

So the Stanford professor has studied every ballpark in the country and concludes that they lose money.  But the reporter offsets that fact by  finding Litchfield Park resident Albert Rodriguez who thinks that "It brings in money for the cities, so I think it's all right,"

Can you imagine doing that in other fields? 

"Mayo Clinic neurologist, Dr. Smith believes the swelling is caused by an Atypical Rhabdoid Tumor requiring immediate surgery.   But Litchfield Park resident Albert Rodriguez thinks you should just put ice on it and walk it off."

As if you needed one more reason to hate the newspaper.

Instructor Ondrea Michelle Benner, 34, of Scottsdale, and student Clint A. Bergum, 21, a Phoenix resident were killed when the Cessna 152 carrying them crashed into a hillside.

I printed a letter from former Rep. Jean McGrath last week.  Here's an interesting response. 

I was never a fan of Jean McGrath when she was in the legislature - she
was too undisciplined in her comments and rather on the way right edge of some of her views. On this one she is right on. She is correct in identifying many of the people who are labeled as business people as
just bureaucrats in large institutions.

She is also correct in noting that many small business people pay horrendous rates in taxes. I have a  mechanic who pays through the nose for property taxes and other  business taxes. He is fixing up his property to sell it and will go  back to being a shade tree mechanic at his house - where he will  discretely fix cars - he is tired of seeing over 60% of his income (I  can get the exact figure if you want) going for taxes. And he gets  nothing but grief for his taxes - mostly enforcement people crawling  over his property every other day! And he is a legal business! He is a very good and honest mechanic as well.

Ron
 

It's Official...

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

_______________________________________________________________

For Immediate Release                              June 9, 2006

President George W. Bush today announced his intention to nominate Marc Spitzer, of Arizona, to be a Member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, for the remainder of a five-year term expiring June 30, 2011.  Mr. Spitzer currently serves as Corporation Commissioner for the State of Arizona.  Prior to this, he served as an Arizona State Senator.  Earlier in his career, he served as a Tax Attorney with KPMG Peat Marwick. Mr. Spitzer received his bachelor’s degree from Dickinson College and his JD from the University of Michigan. 

# # #

Read My Lips, No New Fences

The most effective political tool is a good sound bite.  Even before TV, politicians understood that to communicate effectively, they needed short, pithy, evocative statements that would be remembered long after they were gone.

Government "of the people, by the people and for the people."  "Speak softly and carry a big stick."  "We have nothing to fear but fear itself."  "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall."  Those statements define entire presidencies.

Problems arise however, when a politician produces a wonderful sound bite and then changes his mind.  "Read my lips, no new taxes."  Oops.

Governor Napolitano produced a great sound bite, but it's looking like she is trying to find a way out of it. 

"You show me a 50-foot wall, and I'll show you a 51-foot ladder"  Clever. 

Hmm, the Governor must have gotten the message because she starting to backpedal.

"So it's all part of the toolbox of things you need. You need fences, you need lights, you need ground radar, you need manpower. Unmanned aerial vehicles are also a great deterrent."

Fences?  You need fences?  As part of the tool box?  I thought the tool box only had ladders in it. 

A Bad Case of the Normals.

There's a lot of analysis coming out of the CA 50 race in which a Republican retained the seat vacated by "Duke" Cunningham.  Democrats are quick to point out that what happened was "normal."  A Republican won a Republican seat...big deal.

In November, Arizona CD 5 and CD 8 are going to return Republicans to Congress and the local Democrats are going to say that things are normal. 

The Left Coast

More California election analysis, this time from Hugh Hewitt

Also in California, Arnold continues to get very lucky in his opponents. Phil Angelides is as way left a Democratic nominee as possible, and Angelides' endorsement of driver's licenses and in-state tuition for illegal aliens, as well as his demand for higher taxes and his Mr. Peepers' appearance will cripple him out of the gate. Arnold will coast.

Do you mean that in California if you endorse driver's licenses and in-state tuition for illegal aliens, you are "way left as possible?"  That can't be right, our Governor did that and she's a "moderate."  At least that's what I keep reading in the paper. 

June 8, 2006

The Net Cost for Groscost

Former Speaker Jeff Groscost is getting sued. 

A small Salt Lake City firm claims a Mesa start-up company headed by former Arizona House Speaker Jeff Groscost muscled it out of a potentially lucrative deal to import alternative-fuel vehicles from China to sell in the U.S. and elsewhere.

I thought this part was especially interesting.

"There is no joint venture," Groscost said. "We've got about 10 different versions of signed agreements that we couldn't come to terms on.

Dude, you are supposed to come to terms on the agreements before you sign them. 

Both of those proposals have overwhelming support and her explanations--that the sanctions weren't tough enough and the police are inconvenienced by arresting illegals for trespassing--take more than 30 seconds to explain and sound lame. 

On another note, I have long been critical of AP photographers who make their subjects look awful--Bush as Hitler, or people with their tongue out while they talk.  So I will defend the Governor on this one.  The Times has chosen a picture that makes her look like a walking cadaver and she only has 3 fingers.  It's Dawn of the Dead meets the Simpsons. 

Combine the picture with the first paragraph and you have a devastating 30-second commercial--a commercial that is above reproach.  All you are doing is quoting the Times and using the picture that ran with the article. 

Mr. Spitzer Goes to Washington?

Energy Daily is reporting that ACC Commissioner Marc Spitzer may be heading to Washington.

Marc Spitzer, a green-leaning member of the Arizona Corporation Commission, appears to be President Bush's choice to fill the GOP slot on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to be vacated by Commissioner Nora Brownell, sources have told The Energy Daily.

Do you hear that whirring sound?  That's the sound of about a dozen term limited State Legislators doing the calculations in their heads to determine if they can gather 6,000 signatures by June 14th.  The answer is no. 

What happens if Spitzer drops out of the race?   If the Primary ballots haven't been printed, then the Republican Executive Committee chooses a replacement for a candidate who qualifies for the ballot and then chooses not to run.

What if the ballots have been printed?  That gets tricky.  I believe that a candidate who gets a number of write in votes that is in excess of the signature requirement would earn a place on the General Election ballot. 

What if that person doesn't qualify?  Then the Democrats will win their first ACC seat since Renz Jennings was re-elected in 1992. 

Putting a Face On Property Taxes.

Your Comments are Appreciated

Folks ask me why I don't have a place on espresso pundit for comments.  The reason is that I don't want to spend all day policing them.  Here's a great example from the Republic.  This exchange (since removed) is from a Bob Robb column about the Governor's vetoes.

Charming.

Talkin' Bout my Generation

My son just turned 14.  I occasionally encounter one of those intergenerational moments when I realize how much time has elapsed since I was his age. 

At least he wasn't thinking of David Sedaris. 

(And yes, I know that Jethro Tull is the name of the band, not the guy.)

June 7, 2006

It's My Party and I'll Cry if I Want Too.

My Daughter is about to turn nine.  Here's her birthday wish list.

Hannah’s b-day list       

1. plastic animals ( don’t care)
2. surprise
3. surprise
4. surprise
5. music cd (not tapes) ( cheetah girls)
6. game boy games
7. American girl money
8. Surprise
9. hair ball (target blue or pink)
10. digital watch
11. sunglasses
12. blockus (game at target)
13. deck of cards

We've told her that it's very helpful to get a list like this, but that she has to remember a couple rules.  First, you don't get everything that you want--even when it's your birthday.  And second, if your wish list has a bunch of items that say "Surprise Me," you can't whine if you don't like what you get. 

Governor Napolitano's parents must have spent a lot of time in the return line at Target after her birthday because she apparently never learned either rule. 

Napolitano has now set the record for most vetoes and seems to think that it's some sort of accomplishment.  Yet her office is famous for not participating in Legislation as it's being crafted.  How many times have you read this comment:

Napolitano spokeswoman Jeanine L'Ecuyer declined to comment on the bill, citing the governor's policy of not saying what she'd do with legislation yet to reach her desk.

After her refusal to comment on bills, The Governor is quick to point out that some of the bills (gasp) contain provisions that she doesn't like.  So she vetoes them and declares victory.  When she vetoed the immigration bill yesterday, she said. 

...she used her veto power on what she called a "crummy bill,"

 Napolitano said, "What part of no don't they understand?

That attitude would earn some Time Out in the Patterson household.

So yesterday she broke the record with a two-fer.  She vetoed meaningful immigration reform and Eminent Domain protection for property owners--two bills that address serious problems, resonate with the voters and may show up on the ballot.

Sure, there's always an excuse.  You can find something wrong with any bill...especially if you don't participate in crafting it.  And there's always cover.  The Arizona Republic didn't like it, Phil Gordon didn't like it, some police chief somewhere didn't like it. 

Naturally, if there were problems that had obvious and universally approved solutions, they would have been solved long ago.  Complex problems sometimes require controversial solutions.  Implementing those solutions takes leadership.  The Governor is supposed to be part of that leadership. 

My wife and I won't be standing in the Target return line after Hannah's birthday party, because she's learned the two lessons:  you don't get everything that you want--even when it's your birthday, and if your wish list has a bunch of items that say "Surprise Me," you can't whine if you don't like what you get. 

Arizona would now have some meaningful solutions to difficult problems if Governor Napolitano had learned the same lessons. 

June 6, 2006

Check out my Commodore 64

Yesterday was the birthday of Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes...one economist whose work will stand the test of time and one who--despite the best efforts of the New York Times--is rapidly approaching insignificance. 

Keynes' work seemed so formidable while it was in fashion yet today it reads like a medical journal from the 1950's or a computer magazine from the 1980s. 

Minuteman video from the Border...Wow.

Via powerline.

The Minutemen have been shooting video footage along the border to show what conditions there are like. You can watch one of their clips here. It's pretty remarkable. The Minutemen show some of the sites where large groups of illegals apparently camp before making a run across the border. In one case, it looks as though an army had been encamped. And near the end, there is a reminder that violating our immigration laws isn't the only form of lawlessness that attends such gatherings.

Pick a Side

There's a famous line in politics...There's Nothing in the Middle of the Road but Yellow Stripes and Dead Armadillos.

My corollary is that if you keep crossing the road, you are eventually going to get run over.  John McCain weaves across the road like John Verkamp driving through Flagstaff on a Saturday night and it looks like he's encountering some traffic.

Here's some commentary about McCain from the left.

And here's a guy from the right who has some "advice" for the good Senator. 

First of all, I think you do an amazing job by elevating every proposal to reform. On immigration, you never attack someone for opposing a guest worker program or one that would create difficult enforcement provisions, but rather they’re enemies of reform. This does well, as you can avoid the specifics of the bill and talk about it being positive because its “reform.” For everyone knows that we need reform and it’s a good thing. Those who oppose reform are the enemies of our nation. It is splendid.

And here are some folks putting their money where there issues are.

Two socially conservative Christian groups have taken out an full-page advertisement in USA Today, criticizing Arizona Sen. John McCain's opposition to a federal constitutional ban on gay marriages.

On a personal note, I met McCain briefly when I was in the House in 1992.  In 1999, I was at a breakfast meeting at a restaurant, McCain was walking out when I was walking in and he looked up and without hesitating said "hi Greg."  I thought to myself, "I can't remember the names of people I met last week.  How many people has he met since he shook my hand seven years ago."

June 5, 2006

Say a Prayer for Rep. Barnes

State Representative Ray Barnes collapsed on the floor of the House this afternoon.  Staff and members performed CPR and paramedics transported him to the hospital. 

WAPO on District 8

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza lists CD 8 as the 3rd most competitive district in the nation.  (Notice that Mike Hellon and Steve Huffman are combined to form Mike Huffman.)  I agree that if there were a single candidate named Mike Huffman who combined the characteristics of Hellon and  Huffman, he could win.  As it is, the moderate trains are still destined for a fiery collision. 

3. Arizona's 8th District: Much of the vulnerability of this seat depends on whom Republicans put forward in their primary later this summer. Former state Rep. Randy Graf is the best known of the candidates and also the least likely to hold the seat in the fall. Retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) has said Graf cannot win a general election and has endorsed moderate state Rep. Mike Huffman, who led the GOP field in fundraising through the first quarter of the year. Democrats have a competitive primary of their own between former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords and former television anchor Patty Weiss. We still expect Graf to be the GOP nominee, which is why this race stays so high on the Line. (Previous ranking: 4)

Tupper...Where? 

Gary Tupper has turned in his nominating petitions to be a Republican candidate for Governor. 

He has an interesting position on abortion. 

Tupper said he also regards life as sacred.

"We should do everything we can to reduce abortion and unwanted pregnancy through education, counseling and public awareness. But ultimately a woman has a right to decide what she believes and act upon her beliefs, needs and circumstances," Tupper said. "I would not make that choice for a woman or anyone else."

Sacred?  As in set aside as Holy? Important to God? 

It's pretty rare to find someone who believes that unborn life is sacred and yet is willing to allow a woman to abort that life based upon her beliefs, needs and circumstances,"

I have no problem with the logical consistency of people who claim that there is no God, the fetus is simply tissue and abortion is matter of choice. 

It's the people who concede that there is a God, believe that unborn babies are sacred and claim that they can be aborted for convenience anyway who trouble me. 

Len Munsil on Napolitano's Immigration Policy...Ouch

Janet Napolitano has been Governor of Arizona for nearly four years. In that time more than 5 million people have crossed illegally from Mexico into Arizona. As the crisis has intensified, as our state has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to deal with the consequences of this failure to secure our border, Janet Napolitano has repeatedly said the same thing -- it's not my problem. She has pointed the finger of blame at Washington and waited for the federal government to do something.

But it's an Investment...

The liberal wing of the Republic's editorial board was in charge last Sunday.  Their first editorial was a snarky dismissal of the eminent domain bill.  In the second editorial they trotted out their arguments for increased spending.  Anonymous Mike form Zonitics has an excellent analysis.

The second editorial deals with a call to the business community to lobby for the Legislature to divert more of the surplus to spending and to turn the proposed tax cut into a one-time rebate. The justification for such a move? The money should be “invested” into programs and services that would generate the type of climate business needs to thrive. Now the Republic gives us such a long and diverse list of investment-grade programs that I expect that the paper has a massive investigation underway to discover the one government program that is not an "investment" and is merely spending- I mean besides the jobs of Doug Martin and Sandra Dowling- I don’t think such a program exists, at least by the Republic’s definition.

What the editorial doesn’t do is mention that the Legislature is boosting spending by 19% this year and adding hundreds of millions to the very programs that the Republic wants more money for. In fact you would only know this if you read Robert Robb’s column down the page (on the Web site.) I see Jon Talton’s selective use of facts in last week’s Op-Ed is contagious Now why wouldn't they mention something that anybody who has been following the budget process knows?

I agree with Robb in one very important respect and this goes back to the early days of the Reagan Administration. There is no appeasing spending lobbies, if you give them all they want one year they’ll will ask for more the next, if you give only part of what they ask then you are a mean-hearted SOB. Somewhere “Black Heart Bob” Burns knows what I mean.

The thing that Robb doesn’t mention is the Republic's implicit tone that any money taken in by the State is earned money. In much the same way if a company is properly managed that it can hope to turn a profit and can then claim ownership to, the Republic seems to think of a state surplus in the same way. It’s the State’s money and to cut the tax rate to cut future revenues is “money Arizona would forgo year after year” The idea that extra money should not only be returned to the private sector but perhaps not even collected in the first place never occurs to the paper. As for the argument that keeping rates at current levels is necessary to protect the budget in case of a future downturn, a budget is a 2-way street and adding to your long-term fixed costs by increasing the spending base is not very sound fiscal strategy.

I haven’t heard it yet from an Arizona politician but the best slur I ever heard from a politician against giving the private sector more control came from a Liberal Party official during the last Canadian election who decried giving parents more control over child care benefits saying that they would only blow the money on “beer and popcorn.” The Republic doesn’t quite say that but by trying to justify more spending, railing against tax cuts, and dishonest representation of the facts it's strongly implying it.

June 2, 2006

A Really Baaad Move.

More than 100 city officials from as far away as Yuma and Flagstaff converged at the Capitol on Wednesday to ask lawmakers to rework the $310 million income tax cut to keep it from taking a bite out of shared state revenues that cities use to pay for more than a third of their budgets.

The Goldwater institute points out the fallacy in the mayors' argument.

If the state legislature reduces income tax rates by ten percent, revenues to cities and towns will still increase an estimated 50 percent by 2009. A 50 percent increase in shared revenue is not a cut. Cities like Phoenix will share $425 million from state income tax revenue collected this year. This amount will increase every year to $684 million by fiscal year 2009.

In addition to getting the math wrong, the city officials are making a strategic blunder.  While there is certainly some tension between the cities and the legislative leaders, the proposed budget holds the cities harmless. 

The Legislature's plan does promise to "hold cities harmless" in two years, when cities collect their share of this year's tax haul. The Senate tax cut includes a clause setting aside $717 million in 2009 so cities won't see a drop in revenue that year.

Since the city officials drove to Phoenix to nuke the Legislature despite the hold harmless provision, you can bet that there won't be a hold harmless provision in the next round of budgets.  

Actually, the cities have made a more fundamental strategic error.  Their press conference provides cover for the Governor to veto the bill.  (My guess is that her office helped organize the event.)   However if she indeed vetoes the bill, the Legislature will bypass her and send the tax cut proposal to the ballot. 

Here's the rub.  Ballot propositions are subject to strict drafting requirements, so the Legislature will not be able to include the hold harmless language in a ballot proposal. 

The cities have  provided the Governor with veto cover and unwittingly made the bill much worse for themselves.  The Governor's office, of course, understands this.  But for the mayors it was a $717 million blunder. 

If things are so Good, why do you feel so Bad?

The economic growth was astonishing 5% last year and unemployment is at record low levels, so why do nearly 40% of Americans give the Bush administration low marks for its handling of the economy? 

One factor is clearly the media's attempt to portray favorable news in a bad light.  Take the newest unemployment numbers.  The latest figures show that the unemployment rate has dropped again.  In fact, the current 4.6% is below the level that economists generally consider full employment.  Yet this great news is presented in a negative light.  Here's an example from CBS News. 

Unemployment Dips, But Hiring Slows

May Jobless Rate Drops to 4.6%, But Only 75,000 Jobs Are Created

Job growth faltered in May, with employers boosting payrolls by just 75,000. Yet the nation's unemployment rate dipped to 4.6 percent, the lowest since the summer of 2001.

On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped a notch from 4.7 percent in April to 4.6 percent in May, the lowest since July 2001.

Five paragraphs into the story, we get the good news presented "on the other hand."  Does it occur to the folks at CBS that the reason that hiring has slowed is that...you know, nearly everyone has a job already?

Good Cop, Bad Cop at the Prom

El Gringo has extended my prom metaphor and concluded that it favors staff over legislators. 

June 1, 2006

Ringside seats for the Culture of Corruption Tour.

The skinny white guy in this picture is Senate Democratic Minority Leader Harry Reid--not that I have anything against skinny white guys.  But unless you live on Mars, you know that ringside seats to a major fight at the MGM are priceless, which wouldn't matter, because Harry Reid didn't pay for them. 

Of course, it's easy to get free tickets when you are the Senate Minority leader and the Senate is working on boxing legislation. 

Here's what Harry Reid said when he came to Phoenix to speak on Jim Pederson's behalf. 

Reid said in a recent interview that he and other Democratic leaders plan to introduce legislation this year to bring "complete transparency" to the relationship between lawmakers and lobbyists in a bid to restore public confidence in government.

"We have an arrogance of (GOP) power, and that power is corrupting," Reid charged. "There is a culture of corruption in Washington."

Notice that GOP is in brackets?  That means, of course, that Reid didn't actually say it, but it was implied by the context.  It looks like the original quote is more accurate.  Indeed, a few days after showing up to bash Jon Kyl, Reid was linked to the Abramoff scandal.

Considering Reid's ongoing troubles and Congressman William Jefferson's recent actions the Democrats probably should have checked their own closets before they decided on the "Culture of Corruption" theme.

l