Arizona's own EspressoPundit

      Ruminations of an over-caffeinated political junkie

July 31, 2006

Find a Parade and get in Front of It

The Republic is reporting that the State Democratic Party is looking for a message. 

State Democratic leaders met last week to discuss the need for a common message and will meet again this week to begin deciding what it should be.

Would you like Fries with That?

The state Party's effort to come up with a message is running parallel with a similar effort by the national Democratic Party.

So far, it's looking like they want to raise the minimum wage, provide universal health care as well as free preschool and all day kindergarten. 

I wonder if they are looking for a catchy slogan for their plan?

Hmm, how about "Welcome to France."

Isn't that an Oxymoron?

Rep. Jonathan Paton has made the big time.  Drudge is reporting that Paton will be sent to Iraq.

Republican Rep. Jonathan Paton, a freshman legislator noted as the top advocate for a new state immigrant smuggling law, said the Army told him Saturday that he was going to Iraq to work in military intelligence.

July 28, 2006

Nixon would Be Proud

Nowicki is reporting that someone is cyber squatting on Don Goldwater's name and redirecting his web traffic to Governor Napolitano's campaign site. 

This type of web based identity theft is not a laughing matter; it's a dirty trick that is well beneath the Governor. 

I would argue that the Governor has a pattern of using dirty tricks--the renaming of Piestewa Peak, promising to sign a corporate voucher bill and then vetoing it, designing her website before filing as a candidate, sending thousands of emails to Republicans thanking them for their $5 contributions.

Furthermore, this web identity theft wasn't perpetrated by an amateur.  Nowicki has found four domain names that have been redirected and they have been purchased through a site that hides the buyer's identity.  That's a pretty sophisticated and expensive practical joke.

Napolitano needs to demand that this redirection be stopped and if the perpetrator is part of her campaign, he or she needs to be fired.

As for the media, shame on you if you let this slide.  If the person who is responsible for secretly hijacking Goldwater's web identity and moving his traffic to Janet's website is associated with Napolitano's campaign, you need to find out who that person is and make sure that they are held accountable. 

PS: the Governor would be wise not to mess with Nowicki or he will continue to use that awful picture of her.  My gosh, where did he find that?

Contemptible, Outlandish and Callous...

...and frankly not well reasoned.

The Republic ran convoluted editorial yesterday in which the authors attempted to chastise Goldwater, Munsil and Montgomery...while conceding the candidates' underlying points. 

Republicans have long complained that the sharp rise in Phoenix crime rates has been underreported.  The theory, of course, is that the top law enforcement position in the state has been held by Democrats; the crime rates have risen sharply and the newspapers haven't covered it.  You may disagree with the nexus, but the three underlying facts are indisputable. 

Now that Phoenix has multiple serial killers on the loose, Phoenix crime statistics are getting some coverage.  Len Munsil pointed out this fact and was blasted. 

Republican gubernatorial candidate Len Munsil has attempted to lay the blame card at Napolitano's feet: "Tragically, it has taken the presence of serial murderers and rapists in our community to draw public attention to our state's serious crime problems," he said.

The editorial writer goes on to concede Munsil's fundamental point.

It is one matter for political candidates to attack incumbents on issues of law and order. Crime rates nationally are on the rise. According to a 2005 analysis by the Arizona Criminal Justice Commission, violent crime in this state reached a 10-year nadir in 2004. Just a year later, it soared to its highest number in that 10-year period.

The editorial had previously conceded that the incumbents' crime policies were fair game. 

All the votes of incumbents, their spending habits and their pet issues - they're all legitimate grist for the rough, grinding mill of politics and campaigning.

And it did so again.

Debating crime trends - and the records of sitting politicians regarding those trends - is political fair game, certainly.

OK, so far so good.  The overall record of the incumbents is fair game and Munsil has commented on how tragic it is that it took an event of this magnitude to generate appropriate coverage of the dramatic increase in the crime rate. 

Then the Republic makes a huge jump.

That which is not fair game - indeed, that which is contemptible in its outlandish callousness - is to suggest that one officeholder or another should be held personally responsible for a sudden, brutal spate of serial murders and rapes by a pair of psychotic miscreants.

Are they referring to the Munsil quote above?  When you read the Munsil statement is it contemptible, outlandish or callous?  The Republic has conceded his underlying point.  The crime rate is up and discussing the overall rate is fair game.  The final point is indisputable--the coverage of the rising crime rate has been scant. 

The Munsil point wasn't about the Attorney General, it was about the media.  And it looks like he was right on. 

Logical Fallacy

Of course, Munsil and Montgomery have made similar statements in the past.

The editorial writers have fallen for a logical fallacy as well.  It's apparently OK to blame officeholders for the overall crime rate, but not the individual events.

Why not? 

If I drive badly, I'm likely to have an accident.  We can't predict the day that I will have an accident and, in fact, I may never have an accident.  But if I am a bad driver and I have an accident, I can't claim that "no one could have predicted that."

The same is true of my eating habits.  If I live on potato chips and bacon, I'm more likely to have a heart attack.  No one can predict the day.  But when the tragic event occurs, you can point to my culpability in increasing the risks that led to my demise.

Am I to blame for the car accident and the heart attack when they could not have been predicted?  Yes.  My behavior increases the overall risk, therefore, I bear some responsibility for the individual events. 

When the Republic conceded that the overall crime rate was on the table, they invariably conceded that it's components were on the table. 

Mr. Goddard's opponent has complained, for example, that the crime rate is rising and that the Attorney General is Hell-bent on going after Wal-Mart and Exxon.  Montgomery has argued that Goddard's priorities are misplaced and has complained that the rising crime rate and the Attorney General's misplaced priorities haven't been getting any newspaper coverage. 

And Len Munsil summarized the Republican frustration.

"Tragically, it has taken the presence of serial murderers and rapists in our community to draw public attention to our state's serious crime problems,"

It looks to me like they each have a point.

Just Making stuff Up

Here's a great Mainstream Media Trick. 

The editorial goes on discuss Phoenix's budget priorities, Civic Centers and hotels vs. Police (more on this Monday).

Then check out this paragraph from the editorial.

For that matter, if GOP lawmakers were that concerned about the economic health of Phoenix and other cities, they wouldn't have structured income-tax cuts last session in a way that will end up shrinking the local share of state revenues in the future.

Were we talking about GOP lawmakers?

That's a self-contained, one paragraph hit piece.  It's a gratuitous cheap shot that is apropos of nothing else in the editorial.  It has nothing to do with Goldwater, Munsil or Montgomery.  It doesn't fit with the Civic Center vs Police discussion.

And, of course, it's not true. 

When the legislature cut taxes last year, the cities were held harmless.  Remember that the legislature was returning unexpectedly high state revenues. 

Furthermore, the state shared revenue that the cities were to receive was appropriated in advance.   And, of course, you have the Laffer Curve arguments.  The Legislature has consistently cut tax rates and the total revenue continues to rise to record levels. 

Any one of those points disproves the notion that the Legislature structured income-tax cuts last session in a way that will end up shrinking the local share of state revenues in the future.

July 27, 2006

Family Vacation

Knott's Berry Farm advertised "Snoopy on Ice."  I thought it was a lunch special, but it turned out to be a variety show. 

Classic Talton:  Arizona Sucks

The Republic's business columnist never misses an opportunity to tell you that Metro Phoenix is a terrible place to live.  Today's column is an especially good example in which he uses Bill Harris's appointment to the Arizona Science Foundation as a hook that allows him to spend the rest of the column recycling old arguments to bash the state.

This is an old trick, kind of like the old Happy Days or Brady Bunch episodes in which the cast gathers around a camp fire to reminisce about old times...which happen to be scenes from previous episodes. 

Those episodes are easy to film because they only have a few minutes of new footage.  Today's Talton column pretends to be fresh by referring to the fairly recent Harris appointment, but most of column is just rehash of old themes.

The Irish Times called William Harris "the highly successful director-general of Science Foundation Ireland." He won accolades as vice president of research at the University of South Carolina and in nearly 20 years at the U.S. National Science Foundation.

July 26, 2006

"D'Oh, I knew I forgot something"

Notice the little snipe tacked on to the bottom of the sign?

Let me translate for you.  The slogan "A VOICE OF REASON!" combined with the snipe means.  "I will vote with the Democrats." 

Despain is LDS, so he is pro-life and against gay marriage.  The slogan is a way of distinguishing himself from the religious right.  He may disagree, but I think it's pretty clear that he will vote like a classic Catholic. 

UPDATE:  I have received quite a few comments on my choice of "classic Catholic."  Perhaps "traditional" would have been better.  I'll leave it up to you to come up with an example of a group that votes pro-life and would oppose gay marriage yet is liberal on fiscal issues. 

I have a number of friends who describe themselves as "conservative Catholics" because they seem to feel the need to distinguish between their views and the political views of mainstream, classic, traditional, typical Catholics. 

The Truth Comes Out

Economists have long argued that raising the minimum wage leads to increased unemployment and that this unemployment disproportionately affects the least skilled among the workforce.   Nationally, African American male teens are the hardest hit.  In Arizona, the most likely group to be harmed is the Hispanic community, with  the illegal aliens being the most vulnerable of all.

Here is an op ed piece from the New York Times that tells it like it is.  Raise the minimum wage as an immigration solution. 

The logic is impeccable.  Raising the minimum wage limits economic opportunity for the lowest workers on the ladder.  In many parts of the country, those on the lowest rung are illegal immigrants.  Therefore, increasing the minimum wage makes for a more hostile economic environment and makes the country less desirable for immigrants. 

Kind of like eliminating standing water to prevent West Nile virus.

The shocking thing about the article is that it was not written by Pat Buchanan or his ilk.  The article was written by Michael Dukakis.

THERE are two approaches to illegal immigration currently being debated in Congress. One, supported by the House, emphasizes border control and law enforcement, including a wall along the Mexican border and increased border patrols. The other, which is supported by the Bush administration and has been passed by the Senate, relies on employers to police the workplace. Both proposals have serious flaws.

There is a simpler alternative. If we are really serious about turning back the tide of illegal immigration, we should start by raising the minimum wage from $5.15 per hour to something closer to $8. The Massachusetts legislature recently voted to raise the state minimum to $8 and California may soon set its minimum even higher. Once the minimum wage has been significantly increased, we can begin vigorously enforcing the wage law and other basic labor standards.

July 25, 2006

Things are Changing

Sonoran Alliance On District 26.  Here's the whole thing,  scroll down to July 20th if you want to read the original.

 Northwest Tucson has been a sanctuary for moderate/liberal Republicans for a long time.  There are several reasons for this.  One is that the Republican District 26 Committee and County HQ provided cover for the three H’s (now down to two.)  Anyone asking what’s with the voting record of Toni Hellon or Pete Hershberger is quickly told not to make trouble. 

There is no great mystery, no great controversy over the facts. Competition among schools raises standards. The United States has been experimenting, far too timidly, with two ways of creating educational competition: vouchers and charter schools. Economists have been tracking these initiatives. Their findings are in: The schemes work. And this is not just because charter schools are better than public schools (though often they are), or because vouchers let low-income parents opt out of failing public schools (which they do). It is also because, under pressure, the existing public schools get better. Amazing! Who would have guessed? A charter school opens, or a voucher program gets started, and before you know it, the neighborhood public schools are offering extra classes after school, Saturday morning openings, new tutoring and mentoring schemes. Why didn't we think of this before?

People often ask me if I feel like I made a difference while I was in the Legislature.  I look back on the 1994 bill that established Charter Schools and say "absolutely.

July 22, 2006

Pederson has a new Commercial

Click here to see "Free Ride."

Pederson apparently has no sense of irony because the Tribune reported on Friday that on the day he debuted a commercial that complains of high gas prices...he traded in his Lincoln Navigator for a Hybrid.

Pederson has gone green since an April news conference on energy. He left the conference in a gas-guzzling Lincoln Navigator SUV.

On Tuesday, he traded in the Navigator for a gas-and electric-powered Mercury Mariner Hybrid sport utility vehicle, Griffis said.

 

Faking it?

So when and where was Pederson's commercial filmed?  Here's a still shot of the gas prices he uses in the commercial.

I don't ever buy "Power Plus" or "Unleaded Premium", but I certainly don't remember seeing $3.57 or $3.79.  In fact, it looks like those numbers are considerably higher than the Arizona record.

So did Pederson go to a gas station in one of his strip malls and ask them to fake the sign?  Did he buy stock footage from out of state?

You may think that I'm just being picky, but you may recall that Congressman Hayworth sent out a piece about freeway construction that appeared to use a stock photo from California.  That became national news. 

So you folks who are covering the campaign for the mainstream media, fair is fair, why don't you ask Pederson if it's a legit photograph.  Did he mock it up?  Did he buy stock footage from out of state? 

Of course, I'm not in the  Millionaire Strip Mall Developer Club.  I buy my gas at Arco or Costco.  Maybe Jim buys his gas from a full service place with free espresso, shrimp cocktails and $3.79 Premium.  But that's OK, he can afford it. 

Silly Question, Silly Answer

Here's an interesting exchange between reporter Howie Fischer and the Governor's press secretary

The state Republican Party has chosen state Rep. Gary Pierce, R-Mesa, to be on the ballot. Gubernatorial press aide Jeanine L’Ecuyer said she did not know whether the Democratic governor would consider appointing Pierce, something that would give him the benefit of incumbency when running in November against a Democrat.

The Governor can't appoint Pierce because Legislators are constitutionally prohibited from any form of state employment (except full time teaching) during their term of office.  And they can't get around the requirement by resigning from the Legislature.

July 21, 2006

Here's a fun letter

Greg

I liked your snippet on Mesa.  What I really enjoy is
hearing from cities about how poor Mesa has been
stripped to the bone, budget wise...but they still
have a coordinator of softball position.  What a joke.

State Senator James Waring

Manipulating the Reader 101

Here's a classic trick that is apparently taught at every journalism school in the country.  From the Washington Post

Indian tribes want Congress to exempt them and their casinos from federal labor laws.

Ok, so we have a classic match up between two powerful (traditionally Democratic) constituencies.

Some Democrats are wary of Hayworth's legislation. The bill "does not include any provision for the protection of labor rights," Rep. Robert Andrews, D-N.J., said at the hearing.

What?  Robert Andrews is just "D-N.J."?

Why isn't he "Andrews, a top recipient of union campaign donations,"?

After all, that would be true.  But we wouldn't want to impugn his motives now, would we?

July 20, 2006

Russ Jones is Back on The Ballot

The trial court erred, however, in concluding that this conduct constituted petition forgery within the meaning of A.R.S. § 16-351(F), as the latter statute applies only to conduct violating A.R.S. § 16-1020, the penal provision of the election laws that concerns a person knowingly signing the name of another to a petition.

            The July 12, 2006, judgment in favor of Plaintiff/Appellee Moreno is reversed; the trial court’s order enjoining the public defendants from placing Jones’ name on the ballot for the Republican primary is vacated; the trial court’s finding that Jones is guilty of petition forgery and disqualifying all of his petitions is vacated; and this matter is remanded to the superior court with instructions to enter judgment in favor of Defendant/Appellant Jones.

The Supremes took the common sense position that "forgery" is what happens when you sign someone else's name to a petition.  Perhaps the rest of us should have taken a step back and asked..."wait a second, how can you be guilty of forging your own name?"

An interesting side note is that the case was decided by a three judge panel that included both of Napolitano's appointees. 

Konopnicki to Run for Speaker

With his stock rising rapidly in the Legislature, District 5 Rep. Bill Konopnicki will try for the Speaker of the House position.

Read the whole thing.

Update:  The following post is about a Tribune article that ran on Wednesday.   I try to point out the flaws in the story and suggest some improvements. 

Chip Scutari has a similar story in today's Republic, but Chip gets it right.  It's quite instructive to read the Tribune story and then the Republic story.  The flaws in the Trib story become immediately apparent.

Agenda Journalism 101

What's up with the bizarre story on A1 of yesterday's Tribune?  It appears that the reporter approached the story with a preconceived notion that the Republican candidates for Governor are unable to raise adequate campaign money and their races are somehow moribund in the face of the juggernaut that is Janet Napolitano. 

Here's a sample.

Except for a few Web sites and a handful of political campaign signs scattered along Valley roads, the candidates have been working in stealth mode.

Between them, Len Munsil, Don Goldwater, Mike Harris and Gary Tupper have brought in a reported lackluster $628,498 — barely enough to buy a month’s worth of advertisements on the Valley’s three major television networks. And that’s not even a fourth of the $3.3 million raised by the top three Republican candidates in the 2002 primary.

Is the reporter trying to intentionally mislead the reader, or his he that clueless? 

Munsil is running clean.  He has raised the maximum that he is allowed to raise by law.  He raised all of his seed money in a matter of weeks and then posted a bright red scrolling banner on his website that said:

Please Don't Send Any More Seed Money; We are Maxed Out.

Munsil raised his $5 contributions in record time and when he had reached the limit, he suggested that his supporters give $5 to AG candidate Bill Montgomery.  Montgomery qualified for clean elections almost immediately thereafter. 

How can Munsil's fundraising be lumped into a group and labeled "lackluster?"  He has raised the maximum.  He has raised exactly the same amount as Governor Napolitano and he raised it in record time.

I would normally give the reporter the benefit of the doubt and assume that he's not simply trying to push his own agenda.  But the way he described the signs caught my eye. 

Except for a few Web sites and a handful of political campaign signs scattered along Valley roads,

Handful?  Scattered?

Have you noticed Munsil's signs?  They are everywhere.  It looks to me like he has more signs than any other candidate.  Pederson got an early start; Brewer has a good sign campaign; Pierce got his signs out very quickly.  But it looks to me like Munsil has them all beat.

Here's another misleading statement

Between them, Len Munsil, Don Goldwater, Mike Harris and Gary Tupper have brought in a reported lackluster $628,498

That's like talking about the time that Kobe Bryant and I scored 80 points.  Almost all the money that his been raised "between them" has been raised by Munsil.

But what will happen when Goldwater qualifies?  He will get a check for nearly half a million dollars.  Obviously Goldwater's efforts don't show up in the totals because clean elections money isn't raised in a linear fashion.  The total remains very low ($5 x 4000) then the candidate gets a check for half a million dollars.   He goes from $20,000 to nearly $500,000 in a day. 

And what's this line supposed to mean?

And that’s not even a fourth of the $3.3 million raised by the top three Republican candidates in the 2002 primary.

Well Duh.

Salmon was privately funded so he didn't have a spending cap and Bayless and Springer each qualified for clean elections money.  The Trib is comparing 3 viable candidates--one without a cap--to two viable candidates who are private. 

The 2002 and 2006 races operate on an entirely different set of rules.  Comparing the totals and claiming that the 2006 numbers represent a "lackluster" performance is dead wrong.  He's also comparing the final totals in the 2002 race to the current totals in the 2006 race. 

Frankly, it seems like Mr. Welsh had the entire "can't raise money, so must run stealth campaign" theme in mind well before he researched the article.

The story obviously isn't a news story.  If it had been written as straight news, it would have simply listed how much money each candidate had raised.  No. This was an unlabeled analysis piece. 

Unfortunately, since the reporter was stuck on his stealth theme, he missed the opportunity for some real analysis. 

You may disagree, and I'm open to feedback, but here's how I see the race. 

Munsil has very little general name ID but he has a massive personal Rolodex from his decades as a public policy advocate.  He has a loyal core of supporters that numbers in the thousands.  He has nearly $400,000 and he's sitting on it until early voting. 

Goldwater has also been active in Party politics for his entire life and has an extensive political resume.  His grass roots support is fairly shallow, but he has a million dollar name.  In fact, his name is so strong that it's possible for him to not qualify for clean elections money and still beat Munsil. 

Goldwater has been out polling Munsil, but Munsil is using the time and money to make sure that his natural base is aware that he is in the race.  He isn't creating a grass roots base, he's simply watering an existing one.

The race between them is too close to call. 

Forget about Tupper and Harris.  Tupper's a joke and Harris doesn't have
Goldwater's name, Munsil's organization or enough money to make a difference.  If Harris writes a check for a few million dollars in the next couple days, he's viable.  Absent the check, it's a two man race. 

Can the Republican primary winner defeat Napolitano in the general election?

Hmm, that's the subject of and entirely different analysis piece.

Republicans have an advantage in raw numbers and turnout.  The Governor has high approval ratings and picks up a ton of Republican soccer moms. 

Then there are the other factors.  Is the Marriage Amendment going to be on the ballot?  Will Clean Elections Director Todd Lang enforce the independent expenditure rules against organizations like Project for Arizona's Future?  How much will Napolitano be fined for starting the race before she filed her paperwork?

We're probably going to have to wait a few months to get more insight on those questions. 

Of course, Napolitano has only raised $400,000; she's not on TV and she doesn't even have signs up.  It looks to me like her lackluster fundraising is forcing her to run a stealth campaign. 

Keep-ing up Appearances II

I mentioned yesterday that Meg Burton Cahill was pulling a fast one by using "Keep" on her sign for the State Senate.  Cahill, of course, is a house member and using the word "Keep Meg Burton Cahill, State Senate" is disingenuous. 

Yuma's Amanda Aguirre must have gone to the same Candidate Training/Used Car Sales seminar.

July 19, 2006

Keep-ing up Appearances.

Most people dislike the State Legislature and Congress, but they like their Legislator or Congressman.  That's why incumbents are quick to put "Re-elect" on their signs.  After all, most people can't name their Legislators, but they are pretty sure that their guy or gal is doing a good job. 

But what do you do when you are in office, but didn't get elected?  There have been quite a few vacancies during this last session and the folks who were appointed are incumbents...but they can't really say "Re-elect" because they weren't elected; they were appointed. 

Ahh, they use the magic work..."Keep."

If you are, say, Nancy Barto who was appointed to the House seat vacated by David Burnell Smith, you can simply say "Keep Barto" and make it clear that you are running for the House. 

But what if there was a vacancy for a Senate seat in your district and you really really wanted the appointment but didn't get it?  What if Harry Mitchell left the State Senate and Ed Ableser got the appointment?  What do you do then? 

Maybe you can simply say "keep" and hope nobody notices. 

Golly, if Meg is going to use KEEP despite not being in the Senate, she might as well just go for it and use "Re-elect."

Anonymous Mike on Talton---Ouch

The Decline and Fall of Mesa

A few months ago, Jon Talton wrote a column with just that title, blaming it all on the fact that Mesa split the baby and voted for a sales tax increase but not for the imposition of a property tax. You know what happened next- the city looked like it was hit by a neutron bomb as residents fled the city for more heavily taxed municipalities where there were better hours for museums and a dearth of big box stores blighting the landscape with their fabulous selection at low everyday prices.

This wasn't just a Mesa issue because as Mr. Talton, reminds us:

The city's civic sickness, economic malaise and ongoing deterioration hurt all of Greater Phoenix.

Yes it's the End Times and cats and dogs are living together at the corner of Stapley & Main.

Somebody forgot to tell Money Magazine which ranked Mesa number 3 nationwide of cities with a population of 300,000 or more based on the factors of clear skies, affordability, and recreational opportunities. Phoenix doesn't appear anywhere on any list.

July 18, 2006

TV Sucks; Read a Book.

I've never been much of a TV fan.  Too many flashing lights and too much noise.  I would be a lousy entertainment columnist.  If the Republic hired me to review the upcoming fall season, I would spend all of my time harping on lousy plot lines, bad music, stupid concepts..."you mean the whole show takes place in 24 actual hours?  In real time?  How stupid is that?  And why do they call it "24"?  The show will never make it. 

Hmm, perhaps I need not apply.

But Jon Talton is still cranking out 3 columns a week as the Republic's business columnist. 

His theme is that: Your pension is disappearing because General Motors is going away and all the good jobs are being done by children in China and the Legislature is letting it happen under your nose because they hate biotech and they don't see the value in having more gay bars and alternative rock bands, I mean, look I Ireland, but Michael Crow is going to save us...and by the way, Phoenix sucks, so why is everyone moving here.

Not exactly a chamber of commerce brochure.

Of course, there are other folks who think that metro Phoenix is actually an OK place to live.  In fact, they think it's one of the best places in the nation to live. 

Money magazine announced that Mesa ranked third on its list of “Best Big Cities” in the U.S., following No. 1 Colorado Springs, Colo., and No. 2 Austin, Texas. It was one of several East Valley cities to make the cut in the financial magazine’s 2006 list of the top 100 cities in which to live.

I've heard that there are even folks who think "24" is good. 

But that show about the emergency room that was on a few years ago.  The concept will never work, who cares about emergency room doctors?

Speaking of the Chamber...

I keep hearing that all the top brass at the Arizona Chamber are gone.  But I haven't seen in in print. 

The Revolution Continues

Here are a couple of new blogs on the right that might interest you.  Check out the Sonoran Alliance and Think Right AZ.

Here's an interesting article from Sonoran Alliance

Speaking of endorsements or actually, false ones, here’s a scoop about a fabricated endorsement by liberal Republican Carolyn Allen, the RINO running against conservative Colette Rosati in the primary race in district 8.

Apparently, Allen has been telling the public that she has been endorsed by conservative Republican and Speaker of the House, Jim Weiers.

Not true. In fact when recently asked in a public forum about the so-called endorsement, Weiers asserted that he had not endorsed Allen.

July 17, 2006 

Plenty of Time to Think

I'm back from Tucson where half a million of our brothers and sisters groan under the yoke of un-timed traffic lights. 

With the exception of the traffic and the Daily Star, I love Tucson.  It's cooler.  Monsoon storms are more frequent and intense.  The mountain views are awesome.  Then of course, there is eegees, Lucky Wishbone and Bookmans...it doesn't get any better than that. 

Doing my Part for Economic Development

While in Tucson, I stopped by the Borders in Park Place and had a double espresso.  Park Place is a 25 year old mall on the east side of town.  When I was growing up, it was just Sears, Furr's Cafeteria and a huge vacant lot. 

I was enjoying my drink and then it hit me...my gosh, I'm sitting in Rio Nuevo.  Rio Nuevo is, of course, the downtown redevelopment  project that is authorized to earmark its own sales tax revenue in order to fund construction.  The scheme is called Tax Increment Financing. 

I was nearly nine miles from the project itself, but the Tucson planners pulled a fast one and gerrymandered the district to include El Con and Park Place malls.  They have nothing to do with the project, but drawing in the malls allows the city to siphon off nearly a billion dollars that is supposed to go to the state. 

My momentary lapse allowed the 5.1% sales tax on my double non-fat espresso macchiato to be diverted toward the project.  That's 17 cents down and another $600 million to go.

The next day I had my espresso fix at the Starbucks on Broadway at Kolb.  Rio Nuevo can have my 17 cents when they pry it from my cold dead fingers.

Good Guy Bias

See, for the past couple of decades, Arizona has had some screwball politics. Lately, not so much. In some ways it's a good thing. Better to debate actual policy than whether or not the Governor wants the word "pickaniny" in public school text books, I say.

Tedski goes back 20 years and pines for the day when folks like Evan Mecham were A1 above the fold in the Republic for the stupid things they said.  (Mecham obviously never wanted the word pickaniny in a text book, but Tedski's using some blogger license here.)

Golly, folks haven't been saying stupid things since then.  Well, actually Republicans have learned the lesson.  But there certainly have been some Democrats who have crossed the line.  But that doesn't get any coverage, so it's not big deal. 

Remember former Democratic icon turned union buster Eddie Basha's comparison of Wal-Mart to Nazis? 

Neither does anyone else. 

When a local conservative political consultant inadvertently used a Nazi era photograph in an ad, it was national news.  The Anti Defamation League made a big deal about it at the client's annual shareholder meeting.  The client rep was fired and the consultant lost the client.  (Ironically, the ad was used in a zoning battle on behalf of Wal-Mart.)

Basha's comments went nowhere.  The local ADL rep made a comment about Basha's lifetime of service yada yada yada.  In other words, Basha didn't really mean to say that Wal-Mart was no different than what the Nazis did in World War II, because, he's you know, a good guy.

State Representative Kyrsten Sinema recently made a splash when she:

urged the public financing of campaigns to remove "overweight white men"

There was not one media outlet in Arizona that reported Sinema's remarks.  After all, she's a really good guy.  She couldn't have meant what she said about her fat white colleagues.  Or maybe she's going to argue that truth is a defense. 

Dewey Defeats Truman

Conventional Wisdom holds that Republicans are in trouble nationwide. 

If Republicans do better than expected--especially in Arizona--the stunned pundits should probably start their post mortems by examining this phenomenon. 

It's not Sunday but Fairfield Christian Church is packed. Hundreds of kids are making their way to vacation Bible school, parents are dropping in at the day-care center and yellow-shirted volunteers are everywhere, directing traffic. In one wing of the sprawling church, a coffee barista whips up a mango smoothie while workers bustle around the cafeteria.

Somehow I don't think the rise of the mega church is in Bruce Merrill's turn out model.

(Of course, Gov. Napolitano has been covering her bases by speaking at the local mega churches...that was a poor choice of words.  She's technically been covering the other guy's bases by visiting the Mega Churches.  But hey, big churches are "seeker friendly."  I'm sure she's not doing it for political gain.  After all, that would be tacky.)

July 13, 2006

Message Received

I'm spending a few days  in Tucson and I'm having trouble with remote email; I can receive but not send.  So if you have sent me an email and I haven't responded, I'll catch up with you on Monday.

Feeling strongly both Ways

I stumbled on this interesting piece of information in an article about Jeff Flake.

Life has come full circle for Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), once an intern in the office of three-term former Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.).

Flake told an audience of Brigham Young University students recently that DeConcini now comes to him for help with clients from his lobbying firm, DeConcini McDonald Yetwin & Lacy. The firm has an office in D.C. and represents Maricopa Community Colleges in Arizona. The former senator periodically visits Flake’s office to lobby on education bills. 

Former Senator DeConcini is on the State Board of Regents--the prestigious body that oversees the state's university system.  The Regents often go head to head with the community colleges.   That's not the type of low-level conflict from which you can simply recuse yourself.  The two are deeply intertwined. 

Give that Man a Cigar

Since my previos posts on this topic have been titled "Close but no Cigar," I thought this title was only fitting.

The Dems managed to remove Russ Jones from the ballot, and they are understandably pretty cocky about it. 

Here's a line from their press release.

“Today the court rejected Russ Jones’s attempt to cheat his way on to the ballot,” said Democratic Chairman David Waid. “This ruling reinforces the principle that politicians are not above the law.”

The Dems are shocked, shocked that Jones would sign a petition that he didn't circulate.  But here's what Tedski said about the allegation on July 3rd.  Remember that Ted is currently a candidate for the House and his brother Tom is currently a member of the House. 

I remember in the run-up to the law suit, it was alleged that he had signed off on the back of petitions he couldn't have possibly circulated since he was nearly 200 miles away in Phoenix. I don't know if this was the problem that finally got his signatures bounced, but it is rather common. It happens because either a candidate discovers that their volunteers did not sign the back of their petitions that they had walked, or a candidate wants to be able to brag that they got all the signatures themselves.

Rather common.  Indeed.

You May get Shot, but you won't be Overcharged

Len Munsil's blog has become a must read.  He reportedly gets about 15,000 hits a day and only a couple thousand of them are from the 9th floor of the State Capitol.  Here's his latest missive. 

Arizona is No. 1 in the nation in crime, and has been for the entire time Janet Napolitano and Terry Goddard have been in office. At least two serial killers and rapists are on the loose in the Phoenix area, causing some communities to be "paralyzed by fear."

So the next time you run an errand to Wal-Mart, take comfort that litterers and cashiers are on notice from Janet and Terry. But if you're driving through Phoenix, you might want to remember to duck.
 

July 12, 2006

Important if True:  Jones Bounced?

Wactivist is reporting that Russ Jones has been bounced off the ballot. 

I am getting reports that Republican Rep. Russ Jones has been not only taken off the ballot in LD 24, but is guilty of petition fraud, making him ineligible for office.

I don’t have specifics or confirmation yet … will post an update when i do.

Thank you Mike Sunnucks

When the media puts titles in front of Republicans, they usually choose "moderate", "conservative" and then something like "ultra" conservative or "far right" etc. 

I have waited years for a mainstream newspaper to actually get it right and point out that many of those "moderate" Republicans are actually liberals.

The Sierra Club's legislative rankings were released yesterday and a couple Republicans scored higher than the Governor.

Here's the Business Journal's take on it. 

State legislators receiving "A" grades from the Sierra Club this year include Democrats such as state Sen. Bill Brotherton; state Reps. Meg Burton-Cahill, Martha Garcia, Kyrsten Sinema and David Bradley; and liberal Republican Reps. Pete Hershberger and Tom O'Halleran.

Well said Mike, well said. 

Was it a Mistake for Kolbe to endorse Huffman?

From The Hill

Kolbe, an 11-termer, said he has no idea whether his endorsement will help state Rep. Steve Huffman, who faces former state Rep. Randy Graf and former state Republican Party Chairman Mike Hellon.

Kolbe makes no secret of his disagreements with Graf, who took 43 percent of votes in their 2004 primary and who Kolbe said is too conservative for the district. Kolbe said that he and Graf are not friends and that Graf did not seek his endorsement but that there is no animosity between the two either.

But that 2004 primary challenge shows that Kolbe’s endorsement might not have the intended result, said his former pollster, Margaret Kenski.

Kolbe is the least popular incumbent of the four, garnering 60 percent of the vote in the last general election. Kenski said strong intraparty opposition shows that any help Kolbe’s endorsement could provide might be offset by the galvanizing effect it has on his detractors.

“A lot of people really like him, but a lot of people don’t,” Kenski said.

“The people who are more intense are the Graf people — the 43 percent who don’t like Kolbe. It seems to me that would have a negative impact.”

Kolbe said that might indeed be the case, but he also emphasized the benefits Huffman can reap from his help.

“I do know that there were a number of people that told me, particularly people active in the fundraising side of things, that they were waiting for me to make some endorsement before they got involved,” Kolbe said. “So I thought it was important for that reason, as well as just simply making a statement that I thought this is the person best qualified to hold the office.”

I was complimentary of Kolbe when he endorsed Huffman.  Kolbe was clearly trying to drive the weaker moderate candidate out of the race in order to avoid a train wreck that ensured a Graf victory. 

Hellon didn't blink and from all the reports that I hear, he is coming on strong enough that he may beat Huffman--and they will probably both lose to Graf. 

Political loyalty is non-transferable, but political baggage travels quite nicely.  It is certainly possible that Kolbe's endorsement actually hurts Huffman's chances. 

Don't forget that much of Kolbe's popularity is due to the personal contacts and name recognition that comes from having a career in the State Legislature followed by 22 years in Congress.  (Kolbe has been in office since Gabby Giffords was in kindergarten.*) 

Yet 43% of the Republicans voted for Graf.

It is doubtful that a candidate who shared Kolbe's views but didn't have his connections could be elected in the district.  That fact may be Huffman's undoing. 

* His service hasn't quite been continuous.  Political junkies will recall that Kolbe lost to McNulty in '82 but he never stopped campaigning and beat McNulty in '84.

Another Example of "Good Cause Bias"

I have often pointed out that the rules don't apply to people who are advancing causes that are favored by the elites.  I don't think this intentional favoritism; I believe that the prosecutors and journalists who fancy themselves as watchdogs say to themselves "yes, that's a legal/ethical violation, but he couldn't have really MEANT to break the law, after all it's for such a good cause."

Here's a great example. 

The Yes for Regional Transportation Committee violated campaign finance statutes but will not face civil penalties, according to the Pima County Attorney's Office.

The committee paid for automated phone calls from Gov. Janet Napolitano and Pima County Sheriff Clarence Dupnik but did not include a statement of who paid for the campaign, authorities said.

The messages went out to various voters before the May 16 regional transportation and county bonds election, urging them to vote for all four ballot measures.

County Attorney Barbara LaWall told the Yes for Regional Transportation and the Bonds for All of Us committees that state statute requires all advertisements to include a printed or verbal statement of the top four donors to the campaign that paid for the advertisement.

The statute defines advertisement as "general public advertising through the print and electronic media, signs, billboards and direct mail."

Officials with the transportation committee said they thought they were within the limits of the law because telephone calls are not mentioned in the statute.

LaWall said she would not impose civil penalties on the committee but warned the campaigns that civil penalties may be imposed in the future.

So Barbara LaWall concluded that the Committee broke the law, however, she decided that they shouldn't be penalized.  After all, it was for a good cause. 

Initiatives to protect property rights, secure the border, or define traditional marriage will face a much higher standard of scrutiny. 

July 11, 2006

Star Wars

North Korea is on the verge of having nuclear weapons and is testing long range missiles.  The old policy of Mutually Assured Destruction held the Soviets in check but is ineffective against a psychopath running a rogue state. 

Fortunately, the United States has--at least in theory--the capacity to shoot down long range missiles.

The folks who endlessly ridiculed President Reagan for proposing missile defense will never admit that they were wrong, but do you think that they have the good sense to at least be embarrassed?

Me neither.

Arizona Conservative on Howie Fischer...Ouch

No one in the Arizona media better epitomizes liberal bias than Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services. It is unclear whether Fischer obtained his journalism degree from a box of Crackerjax or from the “Acme School of Pseudo-Journalism.” What was apparent once again today were his bias and unquestioned disdain for all things conservative relating to respect for life/marriage/family. The boorish Fischer behaved atrociously, not to mention unprofessionally, in the events surrounding Protect Marriage Arizona’s submission of ballot initiative signatures at the Secretary of State’s Office in Phoenix.

As they say, read the whole thing.

Another One Bites the Dust

Ernest Bustamante, a Democrat in Legislative District 29, came up short of the 300 signatures needed to qualify after a Pima County Superior Court judge ruled that some were not suitable, Bustamante said Monday.

I'm assuming that he is former State Representative Earnest Bustamante who represented District 29, but the Star didn't make that clear, so maybe the names are just the same. 

UPDATE:  Tedski writes

No word on what Tedski thinks about the missile defense.

Once if By Land, Two if by Sea

Goldwater is Calling the Minutemen

Attention: All Minutemen.

Don Goldwater’s vision of securing the border is in jeopardy. We are telling you like it is. No sugar coating this. If Don doesn’t get his $5.00 in the next few weeks you can kiss our only chance of a governor securing the Arizona border good-bye. Both you and I know Don Goldwater is the man to get the job done.   We cannot let John McCain win this battle against the America people. You have all either heard or read his statement against Don Goldwater. Don’t let McCain win.

 Here is the problem; Don Goldwater does not get his $475,000 from the State of Arizona until he collects ALL the $5.00. That means no signs no TV commercials, no radio spots. Nothing

 How may more of these do we need? And when say “We” I am mean you and I. 1100

 I have worked on the Goldwater campaign since day 1. And as a wheelchair Minuteman I can tell you first hand that Don Goldwater is going to do what he says he is going to do.

 I am asking you not to delay in this matter. Here is what needs to be done. Click on this link http://www.goldwater4governor.org/Goldwater_5_dollar_contribution_form.pdf and print 2 of the forms that show up. Then take this form to your friends and neighbors and have them fill out the forms and give you their $5.00. Don’t ask them to fill it out and send it in. You collect the $5.00. Yes you can collect the money your self. Don’t trust them to do it on their own. It will just get put on a desk somewhere and forgotten about. Then mail it to the address on the form.

 If every Arizona Minuteman did this we would be done.

 If you have any questions you can call me at 480-699-xxxx

 Thank you for all your help along the border and with help for Don Goldwater.

 Sincerely,

Eric Johnson

Communications Coordinator

Goldwater for Governor

Since the Minuteman organization is a 501 C 3.  I hope they aren't giving Goldwater free access to their distribution list. 

July 9, 2006

Could This Story Possibly be True?

I stumbled across this incredible story.  The premise is that the Mexican Consulate is providing instructions, supplies and logistics to assist illegal aliens crossing the border. 

However, as the story unfolds the author claims that illegals have been making unsolicited and anonymous political contributions to Governor Napolitano and Senator McCain, that McCain's office has been helpful to crossers who get into legal trouble and cites one example of a Guardsman abusing a female crosser.

Before the meeting (at the Consulate) ended each meeting attendee was given a bag that had an envelope which contained $250 in US currency. 2 gallons of water. Canned food. And a prepaid telephone calling card.

The written instructions also provided “Contact Numbers” for illegal aliens to call if they got in trouble in the United States. One of the telephone numbers was the office of US Senator John McCain in Phoenix. The instructions in Spanish said “that if you have any problems you should call Senator McCain's office who has agreed to help Mexican nationals in the United States.”

Roberto claims to have had an unspecified problem with a Tempe city official last year. The Mexican Consulate told him to call Senator John McCain in Phoenix. Roberto called McCain's office, who apparently intervened, because Roberto says that the problem was settled.

One border crosser makes this claim.

Obradorres said that she had a close call when she crossed into the United States. She ran into an American Soldier. He said that his name was Jeff and that he was from Utah. Her fears were diminished because the Soldier “didn't have a gun.” After he felt her breasts, and kissed her, he gave her some water. He also told her not to go in a specific direction, or area because that's where the Border Patrol was.

Read the whole thing and decide for yourself.

July 7, 2006

Out of the Closet and across the Border

The two biggest issues this fall will be gay marriage and immigration.  It never occurred to me that they could be related. 

Here's an article in the New York Blade about Jim Kolbe.

Kolbe, who is in a relationship with a man from Panama in the United States on a temporary visa, said that opponents of allowing gay Americans to sponsor their foreign partners for immigration purposes argue against any federal legal recognition of gay couples.

But the proposal still needs an influential champion. As a leading Republican with the ear of White House policymakers, and as a gay man in a bi-national relationship, Kolbe has been viewed as perhaps the ideal public official to lobby for UAFA.

July 6, 2006

McCain is under Fire

A conservative website has launched a full-frontal attack on Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who the story says has an "irrational, explosive" temper, citing two former Republican senators and GOP aides.

"The senator explained that he had already committed to support George Bush," a former Senate staffer told the site. "McCain said ‘f— you' and never spoke to him again."

Stop the Presses

The Arizona Republic has discovered that there are (Gasp) lobbyists at the state capitol.  The paper ran an interesting two part series and concluded that lobbyists buy food for legislators.  The articles were A1 above the fold, here and here.

This seems to be the key paragraph.

Arizona lobbyists can wine and dine lawmakers and pay for trips with no limit. They spend tens of thousands of dollars every year on legislators without being required to report the details.

And that is the case with lobbyists who work at the state Capitol in Phoenix. They are not doing anything wrong - but they are throwing around a lot of money that "buys" them access that others cannot obtain.

Wow, that's a good point.  Then I began to think...doesn't Phoenix Newspapers Inc--parent of the Arizona Republic--do some lobbying?  Well, golly, yes they do.  In fact here's the list of reports.

Sirs, have you no Decency?

Lynn Stanley was killed in a traffic accident Monday.  She taught at our church, was friends with my wife and was one of the leaders in the Protect Marriage Amendment.

I realize that there are few in the media who understand or are sympathetic to the views of Christian conservatives.

The media is quick to claim that Christians are trying to legislate morality.  They forget that it was the Supreme Court that "discovered" the Constitutional right to abortion on demand.  It was the Supreme Court that overturned its own precedent and determined that sodomy is Constitutionally protected.  It is various state courts that are seeking to redefine marriage.

I expect the opponents of the Protect Marriage Amendment and their friends in the media to attempt to portray the proposed amendment as some sort of anti gay, fundamentalist homophobia.

But was there not one day in which the knives could have been put away?  Not even one day?

                         Anti-gay marriage leader dies

The head of the ballot effort to prohibit gay marriage and define traditional unions in Arizona was killed in a car wreck early Monday.
 

Update:

July 5, 2006

Close but No Cigar II

The Court has ruled that Russ Jones has 21 signatures to spare. 

The Court finds that of the 315 signatures on defendant Jones petitions eighty-seven (87) are invalid. He obtained 228 valid signatures and qualifies to have his named placed on the ballot for the 2006 primary election.

The Court enters judgment for defendant Jones and denies the plaintiff his requested relief.

The Final Puzzle Piece

Jim Pederson conducted an interview with The Hill.

The theme of the article is how Pederson rebuilt the Arizona Democratic Party.  Pederson provides a rather candid assessment of how Janet became Governor

In 2001, Napolitano, the state’s attorney general at the time, approached Pederson about a gubernatorial run but also expressed reservations about how much help she would get from the party if she ran a publicly funded campaign. Pederson dumped millions of his shopping-mall fortune into the race through the party. 

“That was back in the good-old soft-money days,” he says. Napolitano won by one percentage point.

So Napolitano and Pederson met before she announced for Governor.  She accepted public money for her campaign and agreed to abide by the spending cap.  Then Jim Pederson dumped millions of his shopping-mall fortune into the race through the party. 

This arrangement allowed the Napolitano/Pederson camp to spend $3 million to Matt Salmon's $1 million.  How much coordination occurred at the 2001 meeting?

Also, I've been told that Pederson characterized the money he "dumped" into the Democratic Party as loans, and after her victory, Governor Napolitano held a series of fundraisers to repay Pederson.

Frankly the scheme was brilliant. 

Four Score...

I try to recite something for the kids every night when I tuck them in.  The rotation consists mainly of poems and bible verses, but we have a special occasion repertoire as well:  Isaiah 53 near Easter, "I have a dream speech" near MLK day,  Roosevelt's "in the arena" near elections. 

Since July 3rd of 1863 was as important to the survival of our country as July 4th 1776 was to its founding, I put the Gettysburg Address in the rotation, in the week leading up to Independence day.

Take a moment and read it.  I believe it is the greatest speech in our history. 

(I have one complaint.  It is almost impossible to memorize lines that are similar and this couplet is a huge hurdle)

It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to...

It is rather for us to be here dedicated to...

Here's a note from Clancy Jayne

July 3, 2006

Sources have confirmed that Clancy Jayne is off the Ballot in District 6.

If you want more info on the Russ Jones Suit, click here.

Here's the cite for the Lori Daniels Supreme Court case.

Update:  An attorney just sent me a note that D3 was added to ARS 16-312 in an effort to address the Lori Daniel's case.

3. For a candidate in the primary election, the candidate filed a nomination petition for the current primary election for the office sought and failed to provide a sufficient number of valid petition signatures as prescribed by section 16-322.

Half of what I learned in high school science class was wrong. 

JUDGE BARS LEGISLATOR'S WRITE-IN BID DANIELS WILL CHALLENGE RULING

Arizona Republic, The (Phoenix, AZ)
August 2, 2000
Author:  Joel Eskovitz, The Arizona Republic

Estimated printed pages: 2

House Majority Leader Lori Daniels said she will appeal Tuesday's court decision that bars her from running for state Senate as a write-in candidate.

Judge Steven Sheldon of Maricopa County Superior Court ruled that Daniels cannot run as a write-in candidate for Senate District 6 in the East Valley.

In July, the court bounced her from the Republican primary ballot for failing to get enough petition signatures, leaving the district with a race that will be fought entirely by write-in candidates.

Sheldon cited a ''common-sense reading'' of a paragraph in an Arizona statute.

He said the Legislature intended to limit write-in campaigns by preventing such election efforts by people who were thrown off the ballot for not having enough petition signatures.

But Daniels disagrees with the decision, noting the judge is focusing on a paragraph that involves write-in campaigns in general, not primary elections. She is seeking special action from the Arizona Supreme Court so that a ruling can be rendered before early balloting begins Aug. 10.

Daniels' vacancy leaves Rep. Richard Kyle as the only write-in candidate with any experience in the Legislature. Kyle filed this suit against Daniels in what both termed a ''friendly'' endeavor to preempt a Democratic challenge.

 

DANIELS' WRITE-IN SENATE BID OK'D

Arizona Republic, The (Phoenix, AZ)
August 10, 2000
Author:  Joel Eskovitz, The Arizona Republic

Estimated printed pages: 1

House Majority Leader Lori Daniels, who last month was both barred from running on the Republican ticket for the state Senate and named Legislator of the Year, won her appeal Wednesday with the Arizona Supreme Court and will be allowed to seek the seat as a write-in candidate.

As expected, Rep. Richard Kyle said he will withdraw his write-in bid in District 6, which covers Ahwatukee Foothills, Chandler, and parts of Mesa and Gilbert. He had contemplated a Senate run when a challenge to his nominating petitions knocked him off the House ballot.

Daniels was initially on the ballot as the Republican nominee but was ousted July 7 after a successful challenge to her petition signatures. The Supreme Court's decision finally creates some stability in the only legislative race without any official candidates.

''I'm just excited that it's finally resolved,'' Daniels said. She planned to begin campaigning and posting signs today, the first day of early balloting.

 

July 1, 2006

Close but no Cigar.

Democrats are suing Russ Jones in an effort to deny him ballot status in his race for the District 24 Senate seat being vacated by Democratic Sen. Bob Cannell.

Frankly, from the compliant, it appears that Jones botched the signature gathering process pretty badly.  Since this is one of only 3 swing seats in the state, Democrats are understandably pretty pumped.

l