|
EspressoPundit Ruminations of an over-caffeinated political junkie |
|||||||||
|
|
Archive From the beginning to the election. November 1
YO, WHAT DID I miss? Twelve paragraphs into its endorsement of Jeff Flake, the Republic drops this bomb: Flake's most pressing re-election problem will come not in this contest but two years hence. His recent declaration of his intent to run for a fourth term is a clear violation of his vow to leave after three terms. What recent declaration? We've been speculating for months that this would happen, but I certainly didn't ever see it in print. Shouldn't a declaration of this type be printed somewhere? Maybe even in a newspaper. And, speaking of the Republic, what about that apology they owe Stan Barnes for crowing about Flake's honesty and integrity when they knew darn well that he was going to break the main promise that got him elected.
NOW THAT JEFF FLAKE has finally announced
that he's breaking his term limit pledge, how does he justify this
mendacity to his LDS base?--with Scripture of course. In private
conversations, Jeff is using this example from The Book of Mormon.
Mormon 3-11
And it came to pass that I, Mormon, did
utterly refuse•
from this time forth to be a commander and a leader of this people,
because of their wickedness and abomination.
Mormon 5-1
AND it came to pass that I did go forth
among the Nephites, and did repent of the
aoath•
which I had made that I would no more assist them; and they gave me
command again of their armies, for they looked upon me as though I could
deliver them from their afflictions.
No word yet on whether or not Jeff's
constituents have been caught with guile now that he has "repented of
his oath," nor do we know if they are buying the fact that he is the
only one worthy to lead them in battles of waste and pork.
November 1 I believe a newspaper's editorial positions affect the daily coverage. Some journalists not only have difficulty exercising their own bias from their writing, but also unconsciously reflect the opionions of the editorial page as well. Most of the State's major newspapers are endorsing Proposition 400 and opposing Proposition 200. Does that affect coverage? In his book Bias, Bernard Goldberg points out that the media feels obligated to label conservatives, but not liberals. One need go no further than the The Phoenix Business Journal to see this first hand. PBJ insists on labeling the supporters and opponents to pound into its readers that Prop 200 is supported by Conservatives and Prop 400 is opposed by Conservatives Flake and Shadegg, both conservative Republicans, announced Thursday they are against Proposition 400. Flake and Shadegg join other mostly conservative critics of the plan because of they oppose light rail and prefer more money for roads and highways. Business groups, real estate interests and local mayors, including Phoenix's Phil Gordon, back Prop. 400. They argue the plan offers new highways to the West Valley, improved local streets in the eastern suburbs and mass transit in the urban core. Dave Thompson is the main opponent of Prop 400, isn't he a business leader. Are the local mayors including Phil Gordon Liberals? Shouldn't they be labeled? How about some more examples. Business groups, including the Arizona, Greater Phoenix and Scottsdale Area chambers of commerce oppose Prop. 200, worrying about its costs, effectiveness on what is traditionally a federal matter and that it might make the state come across as anti-Latino. Conservative backers of Prop. 200 contend that something needs to be done to address illegal immigration and that the federal government is not addressing the issue. In case you think that I've printed a few well-chosen examples, I searched the PBJ database for the words "prop" and "liberal" for the last year and got--no hits. However, I've printed the links to all the articles below that include "prop" and "Conservative"
*
Phoenix chamber, anti-tax group come out against immigrant measure October 28 FOR THE SECOND TIME IS AS MANY WEEKS, a local boy makes the big time and starts spouting Right-Wing rhetoric. First it was ASU's Nobel Prize winner Edward Prescott who used the platform of his newfound fame to call for the privatization of social security, complain that the Bush tax cuts were too small and point out that increasing taxes to stimulate the economy is “pretty damn stupid.” And on Good Morning America today, the Valley's own Curt Schilling while being congratulated on a stellar performance helping lift the curse of the Bambino replied: "And make sure you tell everybody to vote, and vote Bush next week." Now, these things always come in threes--just like celebrity deaths and Britney Spears' marriages. So I'm going to use my legendary powers of prediction and hazard a guess about the next occurrence. 1. Preston Westmorland, fresh off his Emmy for best daytime talk show, announces that "Rush is Right" and joins the EIB network. 2. Jana Bommersbach, after receiving the Pulitzer for her revisionist masterpiece Feminist Influence on the Crimean War, opines that "If Kerry were President, we would still be waiting for France to pass the Global Test and Saddam would be in power." 3. Gov. Napolitano, upon receiving her appointment as Ambassador to France, declares "Cradle to grave pampering has made these guys into complete wimps, productivity is low, the food's lousy, and what is that smell?" OK, maybe not, but one can hope.
I HATE TO ADMIT IT, but I agree with this comment from a loyal reader I can definitely
understand not wanting to vote for Kerry. Fifteen
Crush Kerry has a full update on the now debunked munitions story. How fitting is it that the Kerry campaign is going to crash and burn in this last week because they made a huge deal out of an outright lie by the New York Times and CBS in an effort to defeat the President? Really, it just couldn't have happened any other way. There's an old saying about stuff like this. We're not sure if it's Buddhist, Confucianism or what, and it goes something like this - "Karma's a Bitch". Yes, it's a right-wing source, but the blogsphere is a low-trust environment, so CrushKerry links to other sources and provides solid analysis. Credibility of the blogers is never based on a Dan Rather type appeal to authority--"we are CBS, so this is true." Follow the links and make up your own mind.
October 27 THE CASE OF THE MISSING MUNITIONS HAS completely collapsed, along with what was left of the credibility of the New York Times. Hugh Hewitt has a good summary. The fall of CBS and the Times reminds me of this poem by Shelly Round the decay of the colossal wreck, boundless and bare, the lone and level sands stretch far away.
Bob Robb makes a great point in today's Republic. Phoenix Mayor Phil
Gordon, borrowing a tactic from his predecessor Skip Rimsza, is saying
that if Proposition 400 fails, Phoenix may abandon regional solutions and
go it alone.
HERE'S MY LITTLE POST IN the Republic's Plugged In section. Earthquakes are caused when numerous small shifts in tectonic plates are stifled and pressure builds to such a degree that its release is sudden and catastrophic. The same principles apply to governance and the Arizona Judiciary is sitting on the San Andreas Fault.... If you are interested,
you can read
the rest here.
October 26 THE PICTURE BELOW reminds me of...This Picture
UPDATE: the next item refers to John McDonald. Be sure to read his response which is printed in blue after this entry.
THERE IS AN interesting exchange on the Modscam corporate donations scandal between John McDonald and myself in the Republic's Plugged In section. Mine is here. He follows up here. For a full Modscam update, click here. John is a great guy, and I appreciate the exchange. He raises a couple good points. First, he doesn't believe that it should be illegal for individuals to give contributions that are over the contribution limit to an organization like Mainstream Arizona. He's right. If an organization is going to INDEPENDENTLY work on behalf of a candidate, there are no individual limits. If I choose to spend $100,000 on behalf of a candidate, that's fine as long as I'm not coordinating with the candidate. But CORPORATE DONATIONS are never allowed to be spent on candidates in Arizona. He's also right about the fact that the corporate contributors were apparently told that their money would be spent on issues not candidates. It is perfectly legal in Arizona to spend corporate money on issues. If Sundt Construction decides to spend $100,000 on behalf of prop 400, or All Day Kindergarten, that's fine too. So far, so good but that's not what happened. Mainstream Arizona raised corporate money and spent it on behalf of individual candidates. That's not legal. But are the Corporations in trouble? Probably not. If I go to Banner Health and ask for a $40,000 corporate contribution to spend on issues, that's fine. But if it turns out that I use the money on candidates, then I probably have a problem. That's what appears to have happened in this case. Notice how quickly John goes into the Good Guy (Basha Defense). For example, any
person who donated more than the 2004 individual limit for legislative
candidates
($280) might be guilty. Jeanne and Gary Herberger? Rich Lehman? Bill
Post? Off with their heads! John is trying to make the point that enforcing the law in this case would hurt prominent people whom we all know are really good people at heart. And it's so obvious to him that these people are good and that good people don't commit crimes, that he doesn't bother connecting the dots. If Constantin Querard, Nathan Sproul, or Tom Liddy were involved, he couldn't make this point. That's because moderates who work on behalf of moderate causes are inherently good, and conservatives who work on behalf of conservative causes are inherently suspect. Here's John McDonald's response:
You make some good points
today, but I disagree with your "good guy" contention. If Nathan,
Constantin or Tom had made contributions, it would make my point
stronger, not weaker. My aim in listing those people was to show that
they run the range of the political spectrum. The Herbergers, to the
left. Conversely, as an example, the Tempe Chamber of Commerce (which I
know quite well) has some very conservative voices.
My point -- which maybe I
didn't make too well -- is that while the expenditures are fair game for
your speculation, it's quite a leap to imply criminal (Class 6 felony or
Class 2 misdemeanor) behavior on the part of those corporations or
individuals; regardless of their political leanings, the money was, in
my view, given legally and in good faith.
Well said.
THE RUMOR IN REPUBLICAN circles is that the bottom is falling out of Prop 400.
October 25 One of my many faults
is that I'm overly modest. But I've learned a valuable lesson from
the Republic. Here's what this Sunday's Republic said about last
Sunday's Republic. The editorial goes on to superbly and brilliantly advocate for a debt gimmick called Tax Increment Financing (TIF) to build projects in downtown Phoenix. Here's some
superb research that shows TIF financing for the boondoggle it really
is. Careful research of these programs in other states reveals that they do not enhance a community’s economic growth over time. Moreover, they weaken governmental accountability to a voting public that does not favor subsidizing private businesses. As I brilliantly and superbly pointed out in last week's espresso pundit. The Republic indicated that their Publisher, Sue Clark-Johnson, is an example of an elite business community agent of influence who has access to money and individuals, meets with Mayor Gordon once a week and acts as a conduit for the business community to the mayor. The Republic's new push for an obscure financing trick that allows cities to subsidize developers with less public scrutiny sounds like a product of that conduit. This needs to be looked into....quick, somebody call the paper.
SPEAKING OF THE Republic, they have allowed me to do some over-caffeinated punditry in the Plugged In Section of azcentral.
PROPOSITION 200 opponents are doing their
best impression of South Korean Gymnasts--unable to win on the merits,
they are pouring over the video tape looking for technical violations.
Being unencumbered by a law degree, I
won't pontificate on the merits of Grant Woods' claim that the full text
of the initiative made available for examination by petition signers was
missing a key word.
I will note however, that I have never
seen anyone read the text of an initiative before signing a petition. I
will also note the deadline for signature challenges has long passed;
the initiative has been certified; the ballots have been printed, and
votes have been cast.
Prop 200's overwhelming support has caused
its opponents to stop searching for like-minded voters and instead rely
on like-minded judges. Paul Hamm got to keep his Gold. Let's hope
Arizonans get to vote on their initiative.
October 22 MY FATHER TURNED 66 TODAY; that used to be old. Men born in 1900 could expect to see 50, while men born in 1800 lived to be about 39. Both of my grandfathers died in their early 60s. Major advances in medical technology and pharmacology have extended the average life span to nearly 80. Lawsuits, eroding patent protections and drug importation threaten these gains. My Dad runs a small construction company in Tucson that specializes in insurance repair work. For the last 30 yeas he's fixed storm damage, kitchen fires and all sorts of little catastrophes. I called him this morning and asked how he was going spend his birthday. He said, "I've got a big vandalism job, so I'm going to install 380 feet of siding." Like I said, 66 used to be old. Happy Birthday Dad.
SETH APFEL is running for the District 11 against Barbara Leff. He also wants to settle down and get married. Just read his campaign website. I am
single, have never been married, and I have no children, though I hope
that I will meet the right woman with whom to start a family soon. Since your very own espressopundit is a tragically un hip middle aged married accountant, who drives a tan mini van while listening to the Beegee's--on cassette, I can't be too critical. But I have some suggestions and observations. For example take a look at this response in which Seth describes himself: Body Art: Strategically placed tattoo. Click here for all of his responses, but here are some highlights.
Senator to be
turn-ons:
Tattoos, Long hair, Sarcasm, Brainiacs, Boldness /Assertiveness, Candlelight, Thunderstorms ALLOW ME TO MAKE A FEW OBSERVATIONS: Seth's campaign signs say he's a "Moderate." But his dating profile says "Very Liberal." Hmm. One or both of these statements are not true. So is it more likely that a politician lies on his signs to get votes, or is it more likely that a man lies on his dating profile to get...a date? Wow, that's even harder than the question about the tree falling in the forest when no one is around. But I think I have an answer. Since candidates tend to run to the right of where they actually are on the political spectrum, and since his website is a fountain of Leftist wisdom, I'm going to have to say that Seth is more honest with the ladies than he is with the voters. Additionally, If you click the link to his full answers, you will notice that his ideal woman is...any woman. Of the 15 characteristics (i.e. income, smoking, ethnicity,) he listed "any" for every one except the two that are physical. Seth will take a woman of any faith, any ethnicity, smoker or not, pets or not kids or not, job or not as long as she is "Slender, About average, Athletic and toned" and between 4'10 and 5'10. And he is more turned on if they are assertive, sarcastic and tattooed. Looks to me like the perfect place for Seth to find a woman is...prison. I think that playing a little hard to get might have been a good move here. I think he should have at least insisted that she speak English.
THE REPUBLIC profiled downtown leaders last Sunday and made this astonishing admission: Another group,
further from the center of power and not elected by the public, influences
policy. That's because their opinions count for a lot with the people who
do make the decisions. Agents of Influence tend to be business community
elites, with a few academic and non-profit types thrown in for good
measure. They have access - to money and individuals. Wow, The Republic's Publisher, Sue Clark-Johnson is an example of an elite business community agent of influence who has access to money and individuals, meets with Mayor Gordon once a week and acts as a conduit for the business community to the mayor. That sounds like a swell job, but doesn't it interfere with, you know, journalism? Of course, the Publisher of the paper shouldn't be confused a rank and file journalist. I don't think Ms. Clark-Johnson spends a lot of time at the keyboard, but I firmly believe that her web of connections with the downtown establishment and her work as an "agent of influence" affect day-to-day coverage of the paper. The Society of Professional Journalists has a code of ethics. Here's the part that deals with Independence. Act Independently Journalists should be free of obligation to any interest other than the public's right to know. Journalists should:
Ms Clark-Johnson isn't covering the story, she's part of the story. Can the Republic's readers have any degree of confidence that the activities of the downtown development community are being scrutinized? There's a lot of public money being spent out there. Is there a reporter, editor, or columnist who isn't thinking twice before criticizing his boss's vision for downtown redevelopment? Did Ms Clark-Johnson's weekly meetings with the Mayor influence this editorial endorsement of Slade Mead? Mead, 42, has leveraged his position as a moderate, in a Senate narrowly held by mostly conservative Republicans, to win support for all-day voluntary kindergarten, more funding for university research and expansion of the Civic Plaza in downtown Phoenix to attract more convention business. Is there a transit, stadium, arts or redevelopment critic who gets a genuine chance to make a case that these programs are boondoggles? How about this dinging of Randy Pullen during his campaign against Gordon? Did Pullen have a chance on the issue? The candidate's surprise attack on Phoenix's voter-approved plans to expand the Civic Plaza, for example, is a case study of inconsistency. In its position as the Public Relations manager for the Mayor, the Republic misses out on its chances to cover actual stories. Maybe that's why the real news stories: The Collapse of the Baptist Foundation, Polygamy in Colorado City, Conditions in Arpaio's Jails, and Colangelo's financial management of the Diamondbacks, to name a few, have all been broken by the Phoenix New Times.
October 20 THERE ARE MANY LESSONS in this Edwards video. The first is that now we know why good people don't run for office. Clowns like these take live video of you combing your hair. But cheap shot aside, this video is really interesting. For one thing, I don't take this long to get my hair CUT, much let combed, and the point at which he closes his eyes to indicate he is ready to have his hair sprayed seems like cross between Louis XIV and a first grader. And don't get me started about him whiping out a compact to check the final result....
LEFT OF CENTER punditry is in a lather over Sinclair Broadcast Group's decision to Broadcast "Stolen Honor: Wounds That Never Heal," See here and here. Hellllo. Earth calling the Left, your days of controlling media content through NPR, the New York Times and major networks are over. Get over it. You don't see the guys who produced Stolen Honor sitting next to ex Presidents at the Republican Convention, or getting hugs from US Senators at the premier ala Michael Moore.
IF YOU WANT TO SEE A real example of media abuse, check out the $5,000 corporate contribution from Sunbelt Communications to Mainstream Arizona. Judge Burke has ruled that Mainstream Arizona's election activities were on behalf of candidates, not issues. There are obvious ethical issues involved when a media conglomerate which owns 6 NBC affiliates--including channel 11 in Yuma--donates cash to an organization whose stated purpose is to "help moderate Republicans win their legislative primaries." But set aside the ethical issues and focus on the criminal ones Sunbelt Communications appears to be a Corporation--just like fellow contributors Banner Healthcare and Bashas. Contributing corporate money to political campaigns that advocate on behalf of candidates is a felony in Arizona. SO WHERE'S THE OUTRAGE? I frankly DO NOT think the fact that Republicans like Constantin Querard, Nathan Sproul or the Maricopa County Republicans are investigated and prosecuted while clear violations like the corporate contributions from Sunbelt Communications, Bashas and Banner Healthcare are ignored are examples of intentional bias or prosecutorial malfeasance. I think that prosecuting conservatives and ignoring moderates is part of the naturally-occurring extra-legal defenses that arise out of human nature. We are all somewhat familiar with these defenses.
And the two defenses that apply here:
So, since Jack Jewett and Grant Woods are good guys who raised corporate money and spent it on behalf of candidates, it's OK because they were trying to elect moderates who would support All-day K and the access budget. When Marv Cronberg gave a corporate donation to Symington's 1994 re-election campaign, he was giving money to someone who might get elected and lower the sales tax, or not "fully" fund education. That would be bad. So Grant Woods prosecuted him.
Here's the new cartoon from guys at Jib Jab. I'm a little late, so you may have already seen it. It's not quite as good as This Land, but when I saw what they did to McCain, I laughed so hard that I almost spilled my afternoon triple espresso.
October 19 JOHN KERRY IS BECOMING A Saturday Night Live Skit. Listen to him switch to French in a lame attempt to channel Kennedy's 'Ich bin ein Berliner speech at the Berlin wall. An inherent problem with being wealthy or elected is that people keep telling you how funny, charming and smart you are. This limits the normal social checks on your natural eccentricities and after 20 years of people not having the guts to tell you to knock it off, you become a freak. That's generally OK unless you ever lose your wealth, get booted out of office or run for President. John Kerry has lost his social grounding and simply can not behave well in front of the average voter.
THE LOCAL MEDIA are reacting to the Edward Prescott Nobel Prize like a Baptist preacher whose son becomes a rock star—proud that he’s famous, but not happy to explain why. You see, Prescott is, well, so darn…conservative. I’ve already posted this quote. Check out this question and answer about taxes in Monday’s Wall Street Journal. WSJ: What course should income-tax policy take in the next four years, and how should the mounting federal budget deficit be factored into decisions about tax policy? Prescott: We should reduce the Social Security tax from 12.4% to 2.4% for those who agree to have 10% of their salary and wage income put into a 401-type retirement account. Individuals would turn these savings into annuity payments at some time subsequent to reaching age 62. Ah yes, privatize Social Security and lower taxes, just what the members of our Board of Regents love to hear. Of course, Prescott’s biggest blasphemy is that his research suggests that a Keynesian response to economic slowdowns is not good policy. Normally, disproving the theories of a long-dead economist would generate little controversy, but the now debunked Keynesian economic model is foundational to the Roosevelt-got-us-out-of-the-Depression myth. This myth in turn is the cornerstone to the modern intelegencia’s economic policies of spending and redistribution. I’m sure the local newspapers would love to chat with our Nobel Prize winner as long as the conversation didn’t drift toward, say, publicly-funded stadiums, public/private partnerships, light rail, the massive level of state debt or all day Kindergarten. On second thought, maybe we should leave the interviews to the Wall Street Journal. UPDATE: RUSS WILES HAS an interview with Dr. Prescott in today's Republic, but it's relegated to the business section--this response shows why: "The idea that you can increase taxes and stimulate the economy is pretty damn stupid," he said. Here's another one. "When you cut tax rates, employment always goes up," Here's his response to the Kerry plan to raise taxes for couples who make over $200K a year It's easy to get over $200,000 in income with two wage earners in a household," Prescott said. "We want those highly educated, talented people to work." Contrast that with the Downtown establishment's current plan to get highly educated, talented people to work. Wow, our Nobel Laureate thinks we should incent creativity and productivity by letting talented people keep more of their hard-earned money. Or we could stick to the current model of making sure talented people have plenty of access to gay bars and alternative rock bands. I guess Dr. Prescott isn't going to be invited to join too many of Napolitano's Blue Ribbon Panels.
ATRA HAS AN EXCELLENT analysis of the Maricopa Community College Bond Election. A billion here and a billion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money.
October 18 2000 hits this weekend, that's a record.
HOW'S THIS FOR FAIR AND BALANCED? David Thompson is spending a million dollars of personal money to oppose light rail and gets this from the Republic. Meddling millionaire takes grudge too far And now an interloper from Gilbert, a millionaire with an ax to grind against light rail, is trying to kill the passenger train project in Phoenix and Tempe. Ah, the guy from Gilbert is an interloper. When George Soros flies in from Hungary to sponsor an initiative to legalize marjuana, he's not described as an interloper. George Soros, a New York City investor and long-time proponent of reforming drug laws. But the better comparison is Jim Pederson, the millionaire real estate developer who spent upwards of $5 Million creating initiatives to change the Redistricting Process, establish Clean Elections and elect Governor Napolitano with an eye toward the US Senate. Is he a millionaire interloper? No, according to the August 23, 2000 Republic, Jim Pederson is a Valley developer whose energy and wealth are the forces behind Proposition 106.
VALLEY DEMOCRATS HOSTED DISGRACED Ambassador Joe Wilson at a well- attended fundraiser on Saturday. You remember Joe Wilson, his story is the foundation for the much of the "Bush Lied" liturgy. Wilson claimed that his visit to Nigeria debunked the "Sadam was seeking uranium from Africa" story. His follow up story was that his wife had nothing to do with recommending his trip but was outed as a CIA operative as punishment for his going public about the Bush lies. Wilson was the immediate hero of the left--the man who dared speak truth to power. He was featured in over 70 New York Times articles, national TV and Cable and became the darling of NPR. However after a year of "Bush Lied" hysteria, the Butler Report from British intelligence and the bipartisan Report of the Senate intelligence Committee proved that it was indeed Wilson who was lying. His report from Nigeria was used to bolster the CIA findings and he was sent to Nigeria based on his wife's recommendation. Both counts he made against the President were false. The Washington Post--no Bush advocates they--exposed Wilson as a fraud. Wilson's assertions -- both about what he found in Niger and what the Bush administration did with the information -- were undermined yesterday in a bipartisan Senate intelligence committee report.
Democrats certainly don't have a monopoly on charlatans in their midst. But Kenny Boy Lay isn't bragging about the Enron miracle in front of 200 cheering Party stalwarts at a Republican fundraiser in Chandler this weekend. If Valley Democrats want to hear an entertaining piece of fiction and fantasy, I would recommend they spend their $75 at Lion King where Timon and Pumba, faced with the reality that they live in denial of the dangers around them, sing Joe Wilson's theme song. Hakuna Matata.
NO ARIZONA Judge has been voted out of office since 1978, but this group is going to give it a shot. Pretty good production value, this commercial could do some damage.
October 15
DISGRACED FORMER AMBASSADOR JOSEPH WILSON is in Phoenix tomorrow for a fundraiser on behalf of a handful of Paradise Valley Democrats. Tickets are $75--Oh how the mighty have fallen.
WHEN ZELL MILLER isn't driving the Democrats crazy, or challenging Chris Mathews to a duel, he's a pretty darned good satirist. Had he chosen to run again, the Georgia Democratic Party might have had to resort to this nuclear option. (That's pronounced Nucular)
IT'S OVER. THIS MARKS THE END OF the Democratic Party as a majority party in America. Galvanized by battles against same-sex marriage and stem cell research and alarmed at the prospect of a President Kerry - who is Catholic but supports abortion rights - these bishops and like-minded Catholic groups are blanketing churches with guides identifying abortion, gay marriage and the stem cell debate as among a handful of "non-negotiable issues." To the dismay of liberal Catholics and some other bishops, traditional church concerns about the death penalty or war are often not mentioned. The Democratic Party overplayed its hand on gay marriage, partial birth abortion and embryonic stem cell research while forgetting that most of America--including Democratic America don't share the values of Michael Moore and Bruce Springsteen. Then, of course, there's Karl Rove...always thinking, always planning. This is from an article covering the Bush/Gore campaign. It is hardly surprising that Rove identified Catholic voters as a top priority. As far back as Richard Nixon's campaigns in 1968 and 1972, Republicans have come to view Catholics as central to presidential victories. It is debatable whether there really is a "Catholic vote," since Catholics are not monolithic in their voting patterns. Non-Hispanic white Catholics tend to split evenly between the two parties in their presidential voting behavior, while Hispanic and African-American Catholics usually vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Pollsters say there is a major difference between church-going Catholics and those who are nonpracticing; Bush does well among those who regularly attend services, but he is not nearly as strong among those who do not. The Bush campaign's emphasis on Hispanic voters repeats the strategy of his 1998 gubernatorial re-election campaign, when he ran a major advertising campaign aimed at Hispanics, and ultimately won nearly 40 percent of their vote. Rove argued that Hispanics are only "weakly linked" to the Democratic Party. Republican pollsters have long maintained that if Republicans run the right kind of candidates, emphasize the right issues, and direct campaign efforts to Hispanic voters, they can win support from Hispanics. Bush advisers say this will be the first Republican presidential campaign to mount a serious effort to peel a significant slice of Hispanic voters from the Democratic column. John Kerry only has the support of 53% of Arizona Hispanics. How can 47% of Arizona's Hispanic population either support Bush or be undecided at this point in the Election. To answer that question, just spend an afternoon with Michael Moore--or maybe Karl Rove.
October 14 LOTS OF TALK in the media about Professor Prescott's Nobel Prize. Not much mention of this.
HOW'S THIS FOR A BIASED LEDE: It's
OK to get ticked off at Dave Thompson. The Gilbert businessman doesn't seem to care. He is on a mission to sink the Nov. 2 ballot item Proposition 400. He is spending nearly $1 million of his personal fortune, including $543,000 for a TV and mail advertising blitz starting within days. Has anything remotely similar been written about Jim Pederson, the real estate developer who spent $5 million dollars to bankroll Clean Elections, the Redistricting Commission and Napolitano's election while taking over as Democratic Party Chairman and looking toward the US Senate?
ROBERT SAMUELSON MAKES an excellent point about poverty statistics. ...the middle class isn't vanishing. Many middle-class families achieved large income gains in the 1990s and -- despite the recession and halting recovery -- have kept those gains...the increase in poverty in recent decades stems mainly from immigration. Gregg Easterbrook makes the same point in the Progress Paradox. While the percentage of people in poverty is pretty constant and may even increase, this reflects poor people moving into the middle class and being replaced by new waves of immigrants. Well intentioned policies--i.e. increasing the minimum wage or worker's compensation benefits--are based on the mistaken worldview that most of the poor are mired in poverty. By providing a drag on employment, these policies decrease upward mobility and increase poverty rates. If 200 people at Disneyland are in line for Space Mountain on Tuesday morning and 220 people are in the same line on Tuesday afternoon, we know intuitively that these are not the same people and that they are not trapped. It would be an obvious mistake to shut down the ride and rescue the visitors. You either need to decide that the line is moving quickly and having 200 people in line is acceptable, or you need to increase the speed of the ride, or decrease the number of people who get in line. Economic mobility and poverty are governed by the same principles. Either decide you are comfortable with a certain amount of poverty knowing that most people don't stay there long, or increase the rate of economic growth through tax cuts and deregulation, or restrict the flow of immigrants. As for me, I despise long lines. Let's make the Bush tax cuts permanent and get this ride moving.
October 14 THE MOMENT of a candidate's self destruction is sometimes only obvious in hindsight. Modern examples include: Howard Dean's "I have a scream" Speech, the first President Bush checking his watch in a town-hall style debate with Clinton and Dukakis' robotic emotionless response to the outrageous question about the hypothetical rape and murder of his wife. Eddie Basha's response in a 1994 Symington debate that he would sign a same-sex-marriage bill if he were Governor provides a local example of a moment of collapse that was clear only in retrospect. I bet Neville Chamberlain thought "Peace in our time" was a great line. Yet his entire career is now permanently associated with appeasement and cowardice. It's too early to tell, but I believe that the gratuitous and pre-meditated invocation of Dick Cheney's daughter in response to a question about homosexuality will be viewed as John Kerry's moment of collapse. I believe it will be widely--and rightly--viewed as a cheap shot at the expense of a candidate's child. That's the only cheap shot that is still not allowed in politics. Lynn Cheney's understated yet devastating response will have the effect of eliminating what little gender gap is left in the race. On Wednesday, November 3rd, the Democratic pundits will try to sort out what happened. Some will argue it was the Swift Boat Vets, Christmas in Cambodia--seared into Kerry's mind-- or the endless pictures of Kerry in a bunny suit, hiking a football, missing a football, bouncing a baseball or windsurfing off the Cape, but they will be wrong. To the pundit's of the left I have two words--Mary Cheney.
October 13 DON'T MISS P.J. O'Rourke's hilarious list of 16 questions that should have been asked in the Presidential debate.
JEFF FLAKE IS PRIVATELY TELLING supporters that he is going to break his term limit pledge. I think that Salmon will run against him and the train wreck will be reminiscent of the 2002 District 1 race in which two prominent LDS candidates--Tenney and Whiting-- split the vote and let Renzi win Alan Everett 7,321 Sydney Ann Hay 9,550 Rick Renzi * 11,379 David Stafford 1,894 Lewis Noble Tenney 9,569 Bruce Whiting 6,872 Jay Tibshraeny should start thinking about Staff, because it looks like he is going to be the next Congressman from District 6.
October 11 John Talton is at it again In trying to explain that some Prop 200 supporters are actually not bigots--a point that's obvious to all except the local media, John Talton exposes his world view. His fictional letter writer tells him: I'm not like them. I don't have a wall of degrees and a job where I have time to sit around and think all day. I'm just an average Arizonan, trying to make a living. The world just changes faster and faster, and most of it seems for the worse. Of course, most of big business is against us. They love the cheap labor. My life is hard enough because of them already. I won't get a pension like my dad did. Layoffs happen every day. It's been years since I had a real raise, and they keep cutting my benefits. Does he really think this is the average Arizonan? This nihilistic myth is pervasive in modern media and is debunked by Gregg Easterbrook here. Talton will be disappointed to discover that the environment is getting cleaner, standards of living are rising, and life for the "Average Arizonan" is improving dramatically. I think John must be living next door to this guy.
LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS ARE becoming increasingly frustrated that the media and prosecutorial community are crashing down with full force against Constantin Querard while ignoring the Grand Woods Modscam case. One need look no further than the Republic to see the disparate media treatment. Here's the Republic on Mainstream Arizona Quietly but effectively, a new group called Mainstream Arizona is building a big war chest, which it is using to help moderate Republicans win their legislative primaries in the ongoing battle for the soul of the Arizona GOP. Republic August 15th And this from the Republic after Querard's operation was shut down. A judge ruled Thursday that a consultant to a slate of socially conservative legislative candidates broke the law by selling sensitive voter information to his clients. The ruling prevents Querard from using his sophisticated mailing lists to help nearly a dozen Republican candidates with attack mailers and auto-dial phone calling during the crucial last days before Tuesday's primary election. Republic Sept 3 My gosh compare those paragraphs! The battle waged by the moderate group is to help moderate Republicans win their legislative primaries. That's pretty neutral and doesn't seem to indicate bias. But compare it to the efforts of Conservatives who use their sophisticated mailing lists to produce attack mailers, and to call you with auto-dialers Also, notice that the word "Conservative" has to have a qualifier. Voters identity with Conservatives so Moderates run as Conservatives especially in Primaries. The media have to qualify Conservative so that voters know it's a bad thing. The Journalistic style books don't allow "right wing, far right or ultra," So when the media write articles, or when the Democrats put out press releases, they modify Conservative with "socially" or "Neo." Neo, of course, means "new" not ultra and is generally a reference to Jewish intellectuals who have become disenchanted with Liberal politics and become Conservatives. The term is making the transition from euphemism to epithet much the same way "colored" did 40 years ago. I believe the term is pejorative and anti Semitic and allows folks like Pat Buchanan as well as the Michael Moore wing of the Democratic party to rail against Jewish Conservatives without actually having to use the word "Jew". The left hold a special hatred for those who "should" be with them but aren't. Thomas Sowell and Clarence Thomas are great examples. The Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives, John Loredo, sent a press release after the September Primary in which he blasted the "neo Conservatives" chosen by the Republicans. I doubt he new it was a racially offensive term, and I don't think we should make a big deal about this. I'm sure he wouldn't make it an issue if one of use inadvertently used a racially offensive term.
October 8 I'm Hiking the Grand Canyon today, so by the time you read this, I will be in great pain.
October 7 IS IT MY IMAGINATION, or have half of the political consultants in state received subpoenas this week? Thank goodness the system has been reformed.
THE FOLKS WHO should be the most interested in the race for House Majority Leader are the state's judges. Judiciary Committee Chairman Steve Tully has been the Court's best friend in the Legislature--a job for which he is under appreciated. If Tully wins the Majority Leader race, he will be trying to balance the budget and hold the caucus together and will presumably be less interested in pulling unappreciative judicial fat out of the fire. There will be a tidal wave of Judicial reform legislation this year--all of which bypasses Napolitano and goes straight to the ballot. The first target will be the state's unworkable Judicial Retention System. Superior Court judges are appointed by the governor and run for retention every four years, while appellate court judges run every six years. The last time voters decided not to retain judges was more than 25 years ago, when they removed Arizona Court of Appeals Judge Gary Nelson and Judge Fred Hyder of Maricopa County Superior Court in November 1978. There will be an effort in the Legislature next spring to change the way judges are selected and retained. But first, Look for an organized effort to oppose judges Fields, Campbell and Sargeant, on the ballot this fall. If these judges survive the challenge, reform advocates will be able to convince any fence sitters that the current system is broken. And if one of the judges is defeated--which is distinctly unlikely--reformers will be emboldened.
AS MORE EVIDENCE for my view that candidates label themselves to the right of their actual positions, I present Seth Apfel who describes himself on his signs as a "moderate."
THE NEXT ECONOMIC development fad hits Phoenix From John Talton Sept. 21, 2004 12:00 AM
Today the Phoenix City Council gets the big enchilada, if not the rice and
beans. The region's immigrant population has begun to tick upward, fed by students and professors at the universities and employees in the medical and technology sectors. Major suburbs to the east of the city now have Hindu temples and a growing Indian-American population. The area's gay community, while not large, has become more active and visible. Pittsburgh's increasing status in the gay world is reflected in the fact that it is the "location" for Showtime's "Queer as Folk" series. Of course, we don't have to look to Pittsburgh for examples of wooing the "creative class," we have Tempe. Those of us in the "non-creative" class who have jobs and car payments and stuff like that don't go to Tempe because the smelly creative people's Hacky Sack games interfere with our dinner. As for the rest of Tempe's downtown redevelopment plan, one need look no further than the Republic Tempe's
efforts to attract gay tourists are positioning the city as a gay,
lesbian, bisexual and transgender hotspot. Gap will soon be
added to the list of commercial outlets that have left Mill Avenue. Apparently the business flight that has plagued Mill Avenue is not unusual City Journal points out that: A generation of leftish policy-makers and urban planners is rushing to implement Florida’s vision, while an admiring host of uncritical journalists touts it. But there is just one problem: the basic economics behind his ideas don’t work. Far from being economic powerhouses, a number of the cities the professor identifies as creative-age winners have chronically underperformed the American economy. Maybe that's why Richard Florida's work on our Downtown blended plan has remained "behind the scenes."
THESE CREATIVE PEOPLE WILL have plenty to do after the election, maybe they can be the cam shaft of our new downtown economic engine. I am especially appreciative of the insightful economic analysis from Nick Harmer (not printable here, so scroll down to the last paragraph of the article). Perhaps Nick can be Phoenix's new Commerce Director--that is unless he is Treasury Secretary in the Kerry Administration.
October 5
Modscam update (For a background on Modscam, click here) 1. Former Republican Attorney General Grant Woods and former Republican Legislative Whip Jack Jewett raised Corporate donations to fund "Mainstream" Arizona. 2. They spent the money in an effort to elect Moderate Republicans who were running against Conservative Republicans, however, they claimed they were simply advocating on behalf of certain issues--not specific candidates. 3. Superior Court Judge Edward Burke ruled that the money was used to advocate on behalf of candidates. not on behalf of issues.
Therefore,
while not using magic words such as “vote for” or “elect,” the
unmistakable message of the mailer is that the two legislators should be
re-elected which makes the mailer “express advocacy.” 4. In Arizona, it is illegal to spend corporate contributions to expressly advocate on behalf of candidates 5. The person through whom the violation is effected is guilty of a class six felony. ARS 16-919 D 6. In 1994 Grant Woods prosecuted Arizona Automobile Association Director Marvin Cronberg for illegally spending corporate contributions to advocate on behalf a candidate. He spent one corporate contribution on one candidate. The contribution was around $1,000.Mr. Cronberg pled guilty to one violation and was fined $10,000 and sentenced to one year probation. 7. The Woods/Jewett is not a single violation. Hundreds of thousands of dollars were raised from multiple corporations and were spent on behalf of nearly a dozen candidates. Obviously, they are innocent until proven guilty and to my knowledge, no grand jury has been empanelled. But, the question remains, can a prominent moderate Republican who is beloved by Democrats, business leaders and the media be convicted of a crime in Arizona? Or will this just go away?
October 4
IT'S THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE that counts, just ask President Gore. So the only polls that matter are the ones that accumulate state-by-state results. But can this possibly be right?
I THINK I figured out the secret to Kevin DeMenna's magic power.
RUMORS ARE RAMPANT IN Republican circles that David Petersen has made a complete mess of the Treasure's Office. FULL REPORT LATER IN THE WEEK.
BEING UNENCUMBERED BY A LAW DEGREE I'm free to spend my espresso-filled days ruminating on the law without having to bother with actually looking stuff up. So I've been thinking. Why do the Democrats have to tolerate DINOs like Zell Miller while Republicans have to work hard to defeat RINOs like Slade Mead? The Supreme Court has gradually expanded the freedom of speech to include a freedom of expression. This in turn has led to a well-recognized freedom of association, which leads to a freedom of non-association. That's why the Boy Scouts can prevent homosexual troop leaders from joining. For more information on the history of these cases with citations, click here. If a group is involved in "expression" it has a Constitutional right to select it's own membership. That much is clear. Aren't political parties clearly expressive associations? If so, why can't the Georgia Democratic Party kick Zell out? And what is stopping Bob Fannin from going RINO hunting? Obviously there are due process considerations. But let's leave them aside for the moment. I believe that the Parties have an existing, but undiscovered, Constitutional right to reject the membership of elected officials who use the Party to get elected, but ignore Party positions and discipline. If so, this would be a seismic shift in the power structure between elected officials and the major parties. I'll let the lawyers out there prove me wrong and I'll gladly print the citations. October 2 WILL THIS GUY EVER LEARN?
The reason you don't see pictures of President Bush doing stuff like this is that President Bush doesn't do stuff like this.
October 1 "NO ONE GOES THERE NOWADAYS, IT'S TOO CROWDED" As I'm sure you are aware, Conservatives opened up a can of regime change in the Arizona Primary Election. Conventional wisdom is that Conservatives are out of touch with the "mainstream" voters but the "wrong" voters turn out in Primaries. Of course, the most Conservative agenda item in the Arizona Legislature of late has been the various components of the Protect Arizona Now (PAN) initiative. These bills are only backed by the staunchest of Conservatives and have been dead on arrival at the Legislature for years. Not one member of the State's Congressional delegation supports the PAN initiative. The newspapers, Grant Woods, chambers, churches and business leaders oppose it. Yet, according to Montini "It is going to win and Woods knows it. And so do I. And so do you. And so does just about everyone else." I guess the Right Wing
has learned a lesson from the
greatest pundit
of them all...The Conservatives are so out of touch with the people
that they have to resort to the ballot.
MODSCAM UPDATE: I received this very interesting email today Mainstream's
contributor list shows 40k form Banner Health. Nice to know in this time
of escalating healthcare costs that apparently things aren't all that
tight down at Banner. Also, they got 13k from "undisclosed". Isn't that
illegal (too)?
September 30 6:26 PM EARLY BALLOTING STARTS TODAY IN ARIZONA BUT KERRY IS BEHIND, so the Republic is urging it's readers...NOT TO VOTE EARLY Warning: Early voting could lead to voter's remorse. It's something more than half Maricopa County residents may want to consider as they join a nationwide trend to reject Nov. 2 and choose their own Election Day. This is one of those CBS-type, pulled-out-of-the-ether stories that explains the collapsing credibility of Old Media. No one in the article expressed regret for voting early and the Democratic Operatives who are interviewed make it clear that they are concerned about Kerry's drag on the local Democratic field. "But a voter whose attention has focused only on the presidential race could be shortchanging decisions on other issues, he said" In other words. Arizona voters are so leery of John Kerry that they are going to vote a straight Republican ticket and our guys are going to get crushed. Now that would be a
tragedy...The Republic better warn its readers.
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC'S John Talton must have switched to decaf. He's grumpy. For 50 years, this place has been driven by land speculation and sprawl. Even if it were sustainable, it has produced a region that is increasingly ugly, boring, divided, poor and lacking options. The worst consequence is that Greater Phoenix is not well positioned to compete in the quality economy of the future. The only thing that bugs me more than people moving to Arizona and then complaining about the number of people moving to Arizona, is people moving to Arizona and complaining that it's a "region that is increasingly ugly, boring, divided, poor and lacking options" So, John, if you don't like the place, move to France. Now there a country that's well positioned to compete in the quality economy of the future. Talton is another "smart growth" apologist. When politicians and the media start talking about "Smart Growth," it's important to realize what that really means in the lives of ordinary people. " Smart growth is great if you are an upscale professional, preferably without children, who can score a relatively large apartment fairly close to work. It's a lot less fun for the majority trying to cram your family into four or five rooms. Smart growth is great if you are savvy enough to manipulate an urban school system into keeping your children away from the poor kids; it is not so nice for the majority who must make do. Smart growth is great if you can afford to have everything you buy delivered, or are in excellent physical condition with a physically undemanding job; it is not so great if you have to come home from your shift at the nursing home to lug groceries a quarter-mile down the street, and then up three flights of stairs. Smart growth is great if you can afford to eat in the plethora of restaurants; it is not so enjoyable if you have to scrape up an extra 20% for the ingredients in tuna casserole. Smart growth is great if you have a nanny to take the kids to the park during the day; it is not so terrific if you have to choose between wasting several precious hours standing around the playground, or letting your kids languish inside. Smart growth is great if you can afford taxis when you need them; it is not so good if you are forced to take three busses to get somewhere you really need to be. Smart growth is great if your family members are all affluent enough to take care of themselves; it is not so fulfilling when you have to shove your ailing mother into the kids room when her resources fail. Smart growth, in other words, is wonderful for those with the werewithal to smooth over its little rough spots. But ask the priced out secretaries commuting 2 hours a day from Yonkers how "liveable" New York is. INDEED. UPDATE HERE'S AN EXCELLENT COMMENT ON "SMART GROWTH" If this is "so ugly,
boring, divided, poor and lacking options" then why are people moving here
in such great numbers? As recently reported in the Republic, the majority
of the migrants used to be retirees from the Midwest. Now it's younger
folks moving from California and other western states in search of
affordable housing and jobs. Does Talton even read his own paper? Some
of the developers I talk to in the west valley, building just the type of
affordable housing that Talton decries, say that around 30% of their new
homes are being sold to ex-Californians. Name withheld Well Said
September 29 WAITING FOR THE GREAT PUMPKIN. The blogsphere was in an over-caffeinated twitter over yesterday's John Kerry great pumpkin shot. As I express in more detail in the CHEAP SHOT entry below. I don't think these pictures matter. What matters is the insight the pictures--and the reaction to them--provide about the campaign and the candidate. Unfortunately, when the Kerry campaign makes an otherwise harmless mistake they chose to lie like a little league batter in front of a broken window. CLICK HERE TO READ THE REST OF "PUMPKIN"
7:21 AM OK, THIS IS A CHEAP SHOT and I know cheap shots. But it's really funny. By now, you have seen these pictures all over the internet. For the record, I think John Kerry is probably a pretty good athlete. He's 6' 4'', looks pretty lean and at age 60 he can snow board and wind surf better than most 20 year olds. But athletic skill aside--where are this guy's handlers? Campaigns are about pictures and the best campaigns are expert at making sure the picture of the day evokes the image of the day which in turn compliments the theme of the week. Since the stump speech is always the same, it's the picture that determines the effectiveness of each event. And it doesn't matter how many times you shake hands with a wounded vet or a union steel worker, if you miss just one football--that's the photo of the day. I believe a significant part of the Reagan legacy is derived from the brilliant imagery crafted by Michael Deaver-- imagery that eventually led to one of the most successful political commercials of all time. Everyone looks like a geek when they snowboard, the wind surfing thing looks like a remake of the Great Gatsby, and don't get me started on the NASA bunny suit. The fact that the Kerry campaign consistently allows the candidate to be photographed looking like a dork is a key indicator of a campaign being in total disarray
September 28 HERE'S YESTERDAY'S Hugh Hewitt column predicting the Main Stream Media (MSM) spin on the Kerry debacle. Thus begins the long-anticipated "He's turned it around" campaign from friendlies in the media, which will morph into "Kerry's a strong closer" after the first and second debate. The storyline is already set. And here's today's Republic...right on cue. Sen. John Kerry did it before, but can he do it again?
MORE ON MODSCAM. One alert reader points out that... Mainsteam Arizona
has a host of fine-lines it is walking regarding its legal status and
obligations. If you want to add to yours, look up the definition of
political committee in Arizona law, compare that to exempt activity under
527, and see if you can see a difference. But Mainstream asserts that it
can accept the protection of 527 without needing to register as a
political committee under Arizona law.
ONE READER REPORTS that there’s considerable talk that the conservatives, still steaming over the GOP budget rebellion, have organized a real effort to help Sylvia Allen defeat Konopnicki in House 5. I'm looking for feedback on the following races. What's going on out there? Laughter-Kirkpatrick (House 5), Sinema-Roesler (House 15), BurtonCahill-Thompson (House 17), Smith-Jones (House 24), Perez-Burns (House 25), Udall-Flake (Senate 5), Foster-Blendu (Senate 12) Arzberger-Thompson (Senate 25).
September 27 Hugh Hewitt has a complete election round up here--complete with Electoral College count, battleground polls and possible desperate debate stunts. Must reads for the over-caffeinated political junkie.
September 26
WOULD YOU LIKE SOME KETCHUP with that tie Mr. Nowicki? The Republic's Dan Nowicki is planning to ruin his diet and wardrobe with one over zealous boast. If Rep. Jeff Flake reneges on his pledge to serve only three terms in Congress, I'll eat my paisley tie. Nowicki goes on to explain the conventional wisdom that Jeff needs to play coy with the truth to avoid being labeled an ineffective lame duck. But has Jeff Flake ever been worried about being labeled ineffective? "Effective Congressman" is a media euphemism for a the traditional go-along-to-get-along pork monger that Jeff has been railing against for 4 years. Let's assume that Congressman Flake indeed plans to keep his promise. When the Tribune's Mark Flatten called Jeff during the campaign and asked him if he was going to keep his pledge, Jeff had a choice. He could get an article on A1 above the fold that said "Flake Waffles on Term Pledge" Or he could get...no article. Obviously the dog-bites-man headline. "Flake intends to keep 4-year old promise" isn't a headline. If Jeff planed to keep his word, he would have told Mark Flatten at that point. Why does anyone who has followed Jeff's career believe that given a choice, he would choose to be portrayed as a waffler who doesn't keep his word to avoid being portrayed as a lame duck who is ineffective? Matt Salmon seems to concur with my analysis. That's the only logical explanation for the strange timing of his recent announcement. Who was supposed to receive a message from Matt's 26-month early announcement? Voters? No, They obviously don't care about the 2006 Congressional race. Potential conservative opponents? No, they KNOW Matt is running in two years. Do you think Eddie Farnsworth, Stan Barnes, and Don Stapley read the announcement and said "My gosh, Matt Salmon's planning to run for Flake's seat." No, that message was an open letter warning Jeff Flake that Salmon will not be scared out of the race. I like Dan Nowicki. His arrival at the Republic raised the IQ of the Editorial Board--of course, the same thing happens when the guy from Dominoes brings lunch. But Dan is going to eat that paisley tie and I will deliver the ketchup--Hunts, not Heinz.
Saturday September 25 ONE OF OUR OCCASIONAL "Speaking truth to power" quotes. This one comes from the Arizona Republic's Legislative Candidate Survey Polls suggest that the public holds the Legislature in low esteem. Is that perception valid? If so, how might it be changed?
Robert " Bob" Burns CONTRAST Bob Burns' totally honest answer to this weasel response from another State Senator. How long have you been registered as a member of that party? First registered as a republican on my 18th birthday-- 9-6-79 Slade Mead UPDATE. THERE IS SOME CONFUSION ABOUT WHY I contrasted Mead with Burns. I did so because Burns was completely straight forward He could have given plenty of answers that were technically honest but didn't express his true feelings. Instead, he told the Republic that they were part of the problem. We need more people like Bob Burns in the Senate. ON THE CONTRARY, It has been reported that Mead changed his registration to "Republican" less than three weeks before filing papers to run for the office on Nov. 27, 2001. By saying that he “first” registered as a Republican in 1979, he leaves the impression that he is a lifelong Republican. The confusion is understandable and intentional because the question was “How long have you been registered as a member of that party? Mead’s answer was technically true, but didn’t answer the question and left the impression that he was a life-long Republican.
Didn't Bill Clinton and Slade Mead both go to Yale law school? Maybe that's where politicians learn to parse "is" and "first". Posted 8-27-04 at 9:26PM
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC asks all candidates to fill out a form with contact information, biographical information and issue responses. Generally, the personal and contact information is used by reporters covering the race, but is not disclosed. But this year, the rocket scientists at the Republic put the entire survey on the azcentral website and they haven't bothered to remove the responses of those who lost in the Primary. In addition to giving plenty of ammo to those who are bent on identity theft, it allows me to write our first ever GUESS THE CANDIDATE QUIZ. Follow the link and then match the quote to the candidate. WARNING, this is for AZ political junkies only. If you are a casual follower of AZ politics, you will have no idea who these people are. FIRST I HAD TO STRIP the responses of code talk. For example, when a candidate says "I'm a Goldwater Republican," they mean "I vote with the Democrats but I live in a Republican district and I thought it would be really swell to serve in the Legislature because they have free downtown parking and a good dental plan." I HAVE TO WARN YOU THAT THE QUIZ IS IMPOSSIBLE. I have chosen the six Republicans who represent the far left of the Republican political spectrum. And I've chosen four Conservative Republicans who are clearly as far right as a politician can get while still walking upright. THE POINT IS THAT THEIR RESPONSES ARE THE SAME. You can't differentiate Gretchen Wolfe from Karen Johnson. It should come as no surprise that RINOs run as conservatives in order to get elected.
September 24 Another example of the Main Stream Media (MSM) trying to convince you that life is getting worse--debunked by EconLog. Gregg Easterbrook's excellent book Progress Paradox exposes and debunks this widespread MSM paradigm. 7:21 AM HERE'S ANOTHER embarrassing juxtaposition. This triumphant picture of Governor Napolitano and Teresa Kerry ran with the Tribune article announcing Kerry's withdrawal from Arizona.
The really scary part was the Channel 12 interview after the rally! Wow, send Teresa to California and Bush will make it unanimous. I was especially impressed by her response when asked about being down in the AZ polls. "Who cares? It's just one state." THE MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION: Is this timing a gaffe or a strategy? One would assume that sending the Nominee's wife to Arizona on the same day the campaign concedes the state is another example of poor advance work. But considering that Teresa Kerry reportedly raised over $1 million from Arizona Democrats and then performed so poorly on the post-rally TV interview, sending her to a state in which her gaffes don't matter so she can raise money to spend in Ohio and Florida may actually be a sound strategy. 7:05 AM ONE READER pointed out that my neocon post (see below) did not recognize that the right wing spews its share of racist venom at the neocons. That's an excellent point and I appreciate the feedback. Pat Buchanan was featured prominently in the article, but I should have referred to him in the post as well. I think it's taken for granted that the far right edge of the political fabric has a racist fringe. I wanted to point out the racist world view displayed by the left when those who "should" be with them on racial or ethnic grounds choose to assert their intellectual individuality. Thanks for the tip.
September 23
RUMOR HAS IT that the Tribune is working on Modscam. See the entry on Modscam below for some background.
IN OUR ONGOING series on code
talk, and racism among the Michael Moore Wing of the Democratic Party, we take a look as
JULIA GORIN at Opinion Journal explains why the left uses the
word "neocon" with such venom. ...when you refer to someone as a neocon, you're saying "Jew." We might suggest reverting to previous, less codey expressions such as "Jewish conservative" or "Republican Jew"--especially since not every right-leaning Jew is neo. But not to worry: We neocons, Republican Jews, Jewish conservatives and Jews for Bush won't take offense, since we don't want American Christians to feel even more paranoid than they already do (particularly during "holiday" season). Of course, this ground has been well plowed by Thomas Sowell, Clarence Thomas and J.C. Watts. The Left hold special venom for those who "should" be with them but aren't.
THIS IS A PRETTY clever campaign strategy. Are they allowed to be up there at the same time? I guess if they don't talk it's all right.
SO WHAT'S UP with this Salmon Announcement? I'll take him at his word that he's confident Jeff Flake will keep his term-limit pledge--but announcing 26 months early seems like overkill. Matt better be sure Jeff's not running, or the train wreck will look something like this: Alan Everett 7,321 Sydney Ann Hay 9,550 Rick Renzi * 11,379 David Stafford 1,894 Lewis Noble Tenney 9,569 Bruce Whiting 6,872 Maybe their Bishop should have just flipped a coin.
September 22 4:21 PM "Bowing to political realities, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry has canceled plans to begin broadcasting television commercials in Arizona, Arkansas, Louisiana and the perennial battleground of Missouri."
September 22, 2004 11:03 AM THE AD LINKED HERE IS ONE OF the main online ads featured on the Arizona Republic's website azcentral.com Since it's for mature audiences, I've put it on a different page. It is NOT an ad in espressopundit. The Republic consistently creates embarrassing juxtapositions like the one below. I've also encountered the ad in articles containing church news or family event updates. The further irony is that the Republic editorialized against "Sexy TV" shows in a melodramatic call for responsibility--"it's about children, and it matters" It's easy to make fun of the lack of judgment the Republic shows in its ad placement, but it became a more serious issue for me when I logged on to azcentral.com in my son's sixth grade computer lab and this ad appeared. We were hoping to avoid explaining topless bars to him until seventh grade.
September 22, 2004 Saban redux DAN SABAN HAD A respectable showing against Arpaio. Look for him to be appointed as next US Marshal. Just a thought.
ModScam? BY NOW YOU ARE UP to speed on the train wreck that was Mainstream Arizona. If not, click here. The disaster centers over whether "Mainstream" Arizona advocated on behalf of candidates in the recent Primary Election.
Here's the Republic's pre-election take on it. "Quietly but effectively, a new group called Mainstream Arizona is building a big war chest, which it is using to help moderate Republicans win their legislative primaries in the ongoing battle for the soul of the Arizona GOP." Arizona Republic Aug. 15, 2004
First stop laughing about the "Quietly but effectively" part. It reminds me of the old bumper sticker "The Moral Majority is Neither."
Being unencumbered by law degree, I would argue that "help moderate Republicans win their legislative primaries" is advocacy. The Clean Elections folks saw it the same way and provided matching funds to the candidates who were opposing the "moderate Republicans" Most of the Conservatives won.
But the Mainstream folks continue to insist that they did not advocate on behalf of candidates--they were advocating ISSUES.
Mainstream is planning to sue...yada yada yada and is planning to provide an expert witness to say the Mainstream pieces weren't advocacy.
Are 527s Advocacy Groups?
Let's go back to the August 15th Republic article. "Mainstream Arizona is a 527 non-profit, which means it can't directly advocate for candidates but can use advertising to educate voters about the stances of politicians."
But wait a second. Is that right? 527s are Political Organizations
According to the IRS, the term ''political organization'' means a party, committee, association, fund, or other organization (whether or not incorporated) organized and operated primarily for the purpose of directly or indirectly accepting contributions or making expenditures, or both, for an exempt function. IRS Code Section 527 e (1)
An exempt function is "attempting to influence the selection, nomination, election, or appointment of any individual" in other words CANDIDATE ADVOCACY.
And a Political organization's income is TAXABLE at 35% unless it is spent on an exempt function.
So it looks to me that the Mainstream legal brain trust--which has been so effective thus far--is insisting that the income they received was not spent on advocacy...and is therefore subject to income tax--to the tune of just over $100,000.
WHY THE HECK WOULD THEY DO THAT?
Maybe it's because Mainstream Arizona is in part funded with corporate contributions.
There seems to be some confusion about campaign disclosure as it relates to 527s. Indeed, 527 contributions are reported to the IRS and NOT reported to the FEC. And it's true that most information sent to the IRS is confidential--but not 527 contributions.
A list of some of Mainstream Arizona's contributors is provided here
Several of them appear to be corporate i.e. Bashas'. And most of them are above normal campaign limits.
We know that I'm not a lawyer, but I think corporate contributions are perfectly legal in AZ if the campaign is not advocating on behalf of candidates. But spending corporate money advocating for a candidate is illegal in Arizona. A.
If that's true, I can see how the mainstream folks are really uptight about the CCEC finding that Mainstream was indeed advocating on behalf of candidates.
Triggering Matching funds might be the least of their problems.
And what about the tax consequences of maintaining the argument that they haven't advocated on behalf of any candidates? My layman's reading of the 527 rules would indicated that these contributions are taxable.
Surely no one from Mainstream Arizona is going to argue in Arizona Court that they ARE NOT spending money advocating for candidates and then sign a federal tax return indicating that they ARE advocating on behalf of candidates.
That would be bad.
This is open source blogging. So I am interested in your opinion, suggestions and corrections.
Have I missed some key points? Or is this about to really explode.
Rumor has it that the AG is already looking at this.
**************
The ROE effect
Controversy rages in the blogsphere about the validity of the Roe effect...
the hypothesis we've dubbed the Roe effect: that liberal/Democratic/pro-choice women have more abortions and thus in the long run move the country in a conservative/Republican/pro-life direction:
I've been pretty skeptical but check out this article from Opinion Journal keep scrolling.
|
|
|||||||
