=
While we are still keeping an eye on a couple other ar=
eas of
interest across the Atlantic for future tropical development, our focus is =
now squarely
on the system moving into the northern Leeward Islands to the east of Puerto
Rico.
Over the last 24 hours, this wave has clearly been goi=
ng
through a process of organization and consolidation and looks better now th=
an
at any previous time in its lifespan. Both an Air Force WC-130J and a NOAA =
WP-3
reconnaissance aircraft are currently investigating the system. Radar and
satellite imagery suggests it is probably already our sixth tropical depres=
sion
of the season, but that will be confirmed within about an hour by the two
aircraft. The next name on the list for tropical storms is Fay. =
This morning’s model guidance more clearly forec=
asts
the formation of a hurricane over the next couple of days as the system mov=
es
WNW through the Bahamas but there is now some split amongst the model=
s as
to the longer range track of what will likely become Tropical Storm Fay aro=
und
days 4 and 5. One group of models turns it northward just off the east coas=
t of
Florida, keeping the storm in the Atlantic. The other group takes the storm
across the southern tip of Florida, or the Florida Straits, toward the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday of next week. One model moves the st=
orm
across Cuba then takes it northward toward The Florida Keys. The most relia=
ble
global atmospheric model, the US operated GFS, still curiously, shows littl=
e or
no development of the system and moves it toward the eastern shore of the FL
Peninsula as a weak disturbance. The clear trend evident in the last 24 hou=
rs
toward storm formation would suggest the GFS may not yet have a good handle=
on
this feature.
There are at least two other waves in the Atlantic tha=
t will
be watched over the next week as they approach North America. However, while
they warrant interest, they are still far enough out to sea that they can s=
it
on the back burner while the feature discussed above occupies center stage.
Next Scheduled Update: 1100L Friday, 15 August
![3D"http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg"](3D"tropicalupdate_files/image001.jpg")
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