A Selection of Recent Publications by Indur M. Goklany


Books

  1. The Improving State of the World: Why We're Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet  (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2007).
  2. The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk Assessment (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 2001).
  3. Clearing the Air: The Real Story of the War on Air Pollution (Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 1999).


Papers

Recent Publications

What to Do about Global Warming, Policy Analysis, Number 609, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 5 February 2008.

Managing Climate Change Risks in the Context of Other, More Urgent Risks to Humanity, prepared for the Conference on Climate Change and Development, Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, 26-27 April 2007.

“Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability and Advance Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development,” Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change DOI 10.1007/s11027-007-9098-1 (2007).

“Is a Richer-but-warmer World Better than Poorer-but-cooler Worlds?”  Energy & Environment, vol. 18, nos. 7 and 8, pp. 1023-1048 (2007).

"Wealth, Health and the Cycle of Progress," in: Philip Stevens (ed.), Fighting the Diseases of Poverty (IPN Press, London, 2007)

The Ethics of Shortchanging Present Generations, November 8, 2006, Commons Blog.

The Stern Review: A Dual Critique, Part I: The Science (by Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen), and Part II: Economic Aspects (by Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson & Robert Skidelsky), World Economics  7 (4): 165-232 (2006).

Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events:  Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2006, in The Civil Society Report on Climate Change, International Policy Press, London, November 2007. This is an update of a paper prepared for the proceedings of the Climate Change & Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, May 25–26, 2006 .

Climate change & property rights, Commons Blog (April 19, 2005).

Climate change. Climate science and the Stern Review, by Carter, R.M., De Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M., Holland, D. & Lindzen, R.S., World Economics 8, 161-182, 2007.
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Climate change. Response to Simmonds and Steffen<>, Holland, D., Carter, R.M., De <>Freitas, C.R., Goklany, I.M. & Lindzen, R.S. World Economics 8, 143-151, 2007.

Climate Change

Managing Climate Change Risks in the Context of Other, More Urgent Risks to Humanity, prepared for the Conference on Climate Change and Development, Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, 26-27 April 2007.

“Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability and Advance Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development,” Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change DOI 10.1007/s11027-007-9098-1 (2007).

“Is a Richer-but-warmer World Better than Poorer-but-cooler Worlds?”  Energy & Environment, vol. 18, nos. 7 and 8, pp. 1023-1048 (2007).
Here is the original version prepared for the 25th Annual North American Conference of the US Association for Energy Economics/International Association of Energy Economics, September 21-23, 2005.  Note there are differences between the two versions, none of which affect the bottom line. The revisions consist mainly of: (a) changes necessitated by the fact that two entries on Table 2 -- one for the B1 scenario and the other for the B2 scenario-- were erroneously interposed in the original, (b) extended discussion in the text of malaria, (c) an explanation as to why the IPCC SRES scenarios' assumption that the population in 2085 of richest world (A1FI) might be the same as that of the second richest world (B1) is not supported by present day empirical data, and the implications of that on the relative impacts of climate change on various aspects of human well-being, and (d) confirmation of the earlier bottom line using the Stern Review's estimates of the consequences of climate change.

Adaptive Management of Climate Change Risks, March 1, 2007, The Fraser Institute, Toronto, Canada.

The Stern Review: A Dual Critique, Part I: The Science (by Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen), and Part II: Economic Aspects (by Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson & Robert Skidelsky), World Economics  7 (4): 165-232 (2006).

The Ethics of Shortchanging Present Generations, November 8, 2006, Commons Blog.

Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events:  Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2006, in The Civil Society Report on Climate Change, November 2007. This is an update of  Death and Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events:  Global and U.S. Trends, 1900-2004, prepared for the proceedings of the Climate Change & Disaster Losses Workshop, Hohenkammer, Germany, May 25–26, 2006.

2nd Round of Comments to the Stern Review, March 17, 2006.

"Evidence for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change," December 9, 2005

“A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adaptation?” Energy & Environment 16: 667-680 (2005). [Based on: "Reducing Climate-Sensitive Risks in the Medium Term: Stabilisation or Adaptation?" presented at the Symposium on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Exeter, February 1-3, 2005.]

“Evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs on Aspects of the Economics of Climate Change.” Energy & Environment 16: 607-620 (2005).

“Living with Global Warming.” Policy Report No. 278 (Dallas, TX, National Center for Policy Analysis, September 2005).

“Is Climate Change the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem?” Lindenwood University, Economic Policy Lecture 7 (St. Charles, MO, Lindenwood University, 2005). Also forthcoming in SOCIETY (Transaction : Social Science and Modern Society).

“Decline in death rates of disasters.” Letter. Financial Times. February 1, 2005 (US edition), p. 14.

Global Deaths & Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events, 1900-2004, Commons Blog (September 6, 2005)

Deaths, Death Rates & Property Losses due to Hurricanes Hitting the United States: Trends from 1900 to 2004, Commons Blog (August 31, 2005).

Climate change & property rights, Commons Blog (April 19, 2005).

“Climate Change and Malaria.” Letter. Science 306: 55-57 (2004). Exchange of letters with David A. King.

“Climate Surprise: Weather Related Mortality Trends Are Down.”  Rapid response. BMJ online, available at http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/eletters/328/7451/1269#61289, June 4, 2004.

“Climate Change: the 21st Century’s Most Urgent Environmental Problem or Proverbial Last Straw?” In Kendra Okonski, ed., Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change (London: Profile Books, 2003), pp. 56-74

“Relative Contributions of Global Warming to Various Climate Sensitive Risks, and Their Implications for Adaptation and Mitigation,” Energy & Environment 14: 797-822 (2003).

“Global Warming: From the Frying Pan into the Fire.” In R. Bate, ed., Perilous Precaution: the Folly of Disregarding Science (Cambridge, UK: European Science and Environment Forum, 2002), pp. 28-69.

“Much Ado About Warming?” Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 16 (no. 4, 2002): 40-46.

“The Problem of the Last Straw: The Case of Global Warming.” In R. Dorf, ed., Technology, Humans, and Society: Toward a Sustainable World (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 2001), pp. 465-474.

Applying the Precautionary Principle to Global Warming. Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 158. November 2000.

“Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems.” In R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1999), pp. 155-187.

“Potential Consequences of Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Compared to Other Environmental Problems.” Technology 7S (2000): 189-213.

“The Future of the Industrial System.” Invited Paper. International Conference on Industrial Ecology and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, Troyes, France, September 22-25, 1999. Also published in:  D. Bourg and S. Erkman, eds., Perspectives on Industrial Ecology (Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf Publishing, 2003), pp. 194-222.

“U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-1997.” Technology 7S (2000): 165-173. (Coauthored with S.R. Straja)

“Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade.” Climatic Change 30 (1995): 427-449.

“Climate Change and Natural Resources: Is It Too Soon to Start Adapting?” Climate Change Newsletter 5 (December 1993): 3-6.

“Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.” Climatic Change, 28: 209-219 (1994), Special Issue on Methodologies for Assessing the Integrated Impacts of Climatic Change. (Coauthored with K. Frederick and N. J. Rosenberg)

“Facilitating Adaptation to Climate Change,” in National Action Plan for Global Climate Change, Department of State Publication No.10026, Office of Global Change, December 1992. (Coauthored with others)

“Terrestrial Ecosystems,” in National Action Plan for Global Climate Change, Department of State Publication No.10026, Office of Global Change, December 1992.(Coauthored with others)

“Adaptation and Climate Change.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992.. [Contains Executive Summary, but no figures.]

2nd version of  “Adaptation and Climate Change.” Paper originally presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Chicago, February 6-11, 1992, with a 1997 commentary in light of  the IPCC's Second Assessment Report (issued in 1996).

“Global vs. Climate Change.” In Implications of Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Forest Management, Department of Geography Publication Series, Occasional Paper No. 15, University of Waterloo, 1992. (Coauthored with H.L. Watson and M.A. Bach)

“The Role of Adaptation in Dealing With Climate Change.” Fall Meeting, American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, December 3-7, 1990.

Unmanaged Ecosystems—Biological Diversity: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, September 13, 1989.

Land Use Management: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, September 13, 1989.

Agriculture and Forestry: Adaptive Responses to Climate Change, I.M. Goklany, Chairman, and members of the U.S. Interagency Task Force, provided to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Work Group III, Resource Use and Management Subgroup, April 7, 1989.

“Climate Change Effects on Fish, Wildlife and Other DOI Programs.” in Proceedings: Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change, Climate Institute, Washington, DC, December 6-8, 1988.  This is, to the best of my knowledge, the first paper to argue that a cost-effective method of reducing pressures on ecosystems and biodiversity would be to increase the efficiency of human activities that compete with the rest of nature for land and water, i.e., produce more food per unit of land and/or water. It is also the first to note that this approach, by conserving habitat and migratory corridors, would reduce current threats to biodiversity, help natural systems better cope with climate change, and conserve carbon sinks and stocks. This theme was would be later elaborated more fully in Sustaining Development and Biodiversity: Productivity, Efficiency and Conservation (Policy Analysis No. 175, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 1992), which was coauthored with M.W. Sprague.

Affluence, Technological Change, and Human & Environmental Well-Being

"Wealth, Health and the Cycle of Progress," in: Philip Stevens (ed.), Fighting the Diseases of Poverty (IPN Press, London, 2007)

“Integrated Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability and Advance Adaptation, Mitigation, and Sustainable Development,” forthcoming in Mitigation and Adaption Strategies for Global Change (2005).

“A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adaptation?” Energy & Environment 16: 667-680 (2005). [Based on a poster presented at the Symposium on Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Exeter, February 1-3, 2005.]

“How Technology Can Reduce Our Impact on the Earth,” Nature 423 (2003), 115, correspondence. (Coauthored with A.W. Trewavas)

“Economic Growth, Technological Change, and Human Well-Being.” In Terry L. Anderson, ed., It's Getting Better (Palo Alto, CA: Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 2003).

“The Future of the Industrial System.” Invited Paper. International Conference on Industrial Ecology and Sustainability, University of Technology of Troyes, Troyes, France, September 22-25, 1999. Also published in:  D. Bourg and S. Erkman, eds., Perspectives on Industrial Ecology (Sheffield, UK: Greenleaf Publishing, 2003), pp. 194-222.

“Affluence, Technology and Well-Being.” [Text] [Link to Clearer Version of Figures ] Case Western Reserve Law Review 53 (2002): 369-390.

“Economic Growth and Human Well-being.” In J. Morris, ed., Sustainable Development: Promoting Progress or Perpetuating Poverty? (London, UK: Profile Books, 2002), pp. 20-43.

“The Globalization of Human Well-being.” Policy Analysis, No. 447 (Washington, DC: Cato Institute, August 22, 2002).

Economic Growth and the State of Humanity. Political Economy Research Center, Policy Study 21. March 2001.

“Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems.” In R. Bailey, ed., Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet (New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, 1999), pp. 155-187.

“Fueling Technology: Response to Letter.” BioScience 49 (1999): 499-501.

“Different Opinions on the Incidence of Disease: Letter.” BioScience 49 (1999): 267-268.

“The Environmental Transition to Air Quality.” Regulation 24 (4: 1998): 36-46.

“Factors Affecting Environmental Impacts: The Effects of Technology on Long Term Trends in Cropland, Air Pollution and Water-related Diseases.” Ambio 25 (1996): 497-503.

“Strategies to Enhance Adaptability: Technological Change, Economic Growth and Free Trade.” Climatic Change 30 (1995): 427-449.

Precautionary Principle & Ethics

“Applying the Precautionary Principle to DDT,” Brief Analysis (no. 485), National Center for Policy Analysis (Dallas, TX, 2004).

 “From Precautionary Principle to Risk-Risk Analysis.” Nature Biotechnology 20 (November 2002): 1075.

“Agricultural Technology and the Precautionary Principle.” In R. Meiners and B. Yandle, eds., Agricultural Policy and the Environment (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003), pp. 107-133.

“Caution with Cures.” Times Higher Education Supplement. Letter. January 26, 2001

Applying the Precautionary Principle to Global Warming. Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 158. November 2000.

Applying the Precautionary Principle to Genetically Modified Crops. Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 157. August 2000.

Commentary: The Complexity of Bioethics. November 2001. Available at Bioethics at Iowa State University <http://www.biotech.iastate.edu/Bioethics/gmosethics/goklany.html>.

“Precaution Without Perversity: A Comprehensive Application of the Precautionary Principle to Genetically Modified Crops.” Biotechnology Law Report 21 (June 2001): 377-396.

Applying the Precautionary Principle to DDT. Available at <http://www.fightingmalaria.org> . December 2000.

“Applying the Precautionary Principle in a Broader Context.” In J. Morris, ed., Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle (Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2000), pp. 189-228.
 

Food Security & Agriculture

“Ending Hunger in China.” Correspondence. The Lancet 366: 202-203 (2005).

“Agricultural Technology and the Precautionary Principle.” In R. Meiners and B. Yandle, eds., Agricultural Policy and the Environment (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003), pp. 107-133.

Testimony on Farm Scale Evaluations of Genetically Modified Herbicide Tolerant Crops to  Advisory Committee on Releases to the Environment (ACRE), November 15, 2003.

“Comparing 20th Century Trends in U.S. and Global Agricultural Land and Water Use.” Water International 27 (3, 2002): 321-329.

“Ins and Outs of Organic Farming.” Letter. Science 298 (2002): 1889-1890.

“Will children eat GM rice, or risk blindness from vitamin A deficiency?” British Medical Journal. Letter. Available at http://www.bmj.com/cgi/eletters/322/7279/126/b#EL1 (February 9, 2001). (Coauthored with R. Bate & K. Okonski)

“The Future of Food.” Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy 16 (no. 2, 2001): 59-65.

Applying the Precautionary Principle to Genetically Modified Crops. Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, Mo., USA. Policy Study 157. August 2000.  Also published in: Michael Ruse and David Castle, eds., Genetically Modified Foods: Debating Biotechnology (Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 2002), pp. 265-291.

“Precaution Without Perversity: A Comprehensive Application of the Precautionary Principle to Genetically Modified Crops.” Biotechnology Law Report 21 (June 2001): 377-396.

“Agriculture and the Environment: The Pros and Cons of Modern Farming.” PERC Reports 19 (March 2001): 12-14.

“Meeting Global Food Needs: The Environmental Trade-offs Between Increasing Land Conversion and Land Productivity.” In J. Morris and R. Bate, eds., Fearing Food: Risk, Health and Environment (Oxford, UK: Butterworth-Heinemann, 1999), pp. 256-289. Originally published in  Technology (formerly Journal of the Franklin Institute, Part A) 6 (1999): 107-130.12-17.

“Saving Habitat and Conserving Biodiversity on a Crowded Planet.” BioScience 48 (1998): 941-953.

“Conserving Habitat, Feeding Humanity.” The Forum on Applied Research and Public Policy 13 (Summer 1998): 51-56.
             
“Technological Progress Increases Food Production.” In S. Barbour, ed., Hunger: Current Controversies (San Diego, CA: Greenhaven Press, 1995), pp. 118-125. (coauthored with M.W Sprague).

Sustaining Development and Biodiversity: Productivity, Efficiency and Conservation, Policy Analysis No. 175, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 1992. (Coauthored with M.W. Sprague). [Figures not included.]

Biodiversity

(see also Food Security & Agriculture)
America's Biodiversity Strategy: Actions to Conserve Species and Habitat. U. S. Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior, 1992. (Coauthored with others).

“Key Issues Related to Sustainable Development: Reconciling Human Demands on Land and Other Natural Resources With Those of Nature.” Background Paper. Department of the Interior, Office of Policy Analysis, October 1993.

Sustaining Development and Biodiversity: Productivity, Efficiency and Conservation, Policy Analysis No. 175, Cato Institute, Washington, DC, 1992. (Coauthored with M.W. Sprague). [Figures not included.]

A Different Approach to Sustainable Development: Conserving Forests, Habitat and Biological Diversity by Increasing the Efficiency and Productivity of Land Utilization. Office of Program Analysis, Department of the Interior, December 1991.(Coauthored with M.W. Sprague).

Air Pollution

“Empirical Evidence Regarding the Role of Nationalization in Improving U.S. Air Quality.” In R. Meiners and A. Morris, eds., Common Law and the Environment: Rethinking the Statutory Basis for Modern Environmental Law (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000), pp.27-53.

“Did Federalization Halt the Race to the Bottom for Air Quality?” EM (Environmental Manager) (June 1998): 12-17.

“The Environmental Transition to Air Quality.” Regulation 24 (4: 1998): 36-46.

Do We Need the Federal Government to Protect Air Quality?, Policy Study 150, Center for the Study of American Business, Washington University, St. Louis, MO, December 1998.

Air and Inland Surface Water Quality: Long Term Trends and Relationship to Affluence, Office of Program Analysis, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC, 1994.

“Richer is Cleaner: Long Term Trends in Global Air Quality.” In R. Bailey, ed., The True State of the Planet, (New York, NY: The Free Press, 1995), pp. 339-377.