On Useful Ingredients and "Patterns" in Tornado Forecasting                               A brief overview by Jon Davies                    
(uodated early 2005 from recent talks and presentations)

NOTE:  The specific material below is presented informally and has not been peer-reviewed, so please use it with caution.

• Ingredients that support significant supercell (mesocyclone) tornado events   (from VORTEX research results and and my own recent work)
• Ingredients that support tornado events associated with 500 mb closed cold core lows   (from my own research and experience regarding low-topped storms near mid-level cold core lows)
• Ingredients that support non-mesocyclone ("landspout") tornado events  (from general research on non-supercell/non-mesocyclone tornadoes and my own recent work)

The 1st grouping regarding supercell tornadoes has been widely discussed with published research, and includes some suggested ways of assessing ingredients and settings.

The 2nd grouping regarding tornadic storms associated with 500 mb lows is given its own treatment because, although these events often involve supercells that are low-topped (mini-supercells), they are difficult to diagnose using ingredients and parameters from the 1st grouping, and are not well understood from a forecasting standpoint.

The 3rd grouping about non-mesocyclone tornadoes is not often viewed as a type of event that can be forecast.  But some recognizable settings are discussed that contain common ingredients that may be useful as a short-term "heads-up" for forecasters and nowcasters regarding more prolonged or "higher-profile" non-mesocyclone tornado events.

The latter two groupings cover situations that often produce "surprise" tornadoes, particularly if a forecaster or warning meteorologist is focussed on ingredients relating to a "typical" supercell tornado framework.   I hope this short review and some of the newer material is helpful to forecasters as an overview... I know it has been helpful to me.

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