Obfuscating the Eschaton:
The Mathematics of Prophecy

In my 1999+1 essay, I referred to the prophecy of Nostradamus (Century X no. 72):

L'an mil neuf cens nonante neuf sept mois Du ciel viendra vn grand Roy d'effrayeur Resusciter le grand Roy d'Angolmois, Auant apres Mars regner par bon heur.

The year 1999, seventh month, From the sky will come a great King of Terror: To bring back to life the great King of the Mongols, Before and after Mars to reign by good luck.

There are many translations and many interpretations, but being that this is one of only 3 specific dates in all of Nostradamus's writings, we were led to believe that something big would happen. Some start of a great war. Lets look at the months headlines:

• The bombing of Yugoslavia could easily fit line 2, but the conflict in Kosovo was over before July even got started.
• There was some trouble in Kashmir (a disputed region claimed by both Pakistan and India), a couple of planes were shot down. This incident kind of fits, but it is highly insignificant in the grand scheme of world events. It did not make the front page of any newspapers I saw.
• There was renewed efforts towards peace in the middle east. Israel and Palestine came to some arrangements. It could be a good start to lasting peace in the region, but it sort of contradicts the whole quatrain.
• JFK Jr. and family were killed in a plane crash. Except for the "from the sky" part, this does not fit at all. (although I bet a few will try to equate the Kennedy's with the either the king of terror or the king of the "angolmois").
• There was a flare up of hostilities between China (Mongols?) and Taiwan, but nothing big resulted.
• Another weird interpretation is that Nostradamus was talking about September, not july. The great king of terror is a meteor that will hit the earth.
• The only thing Nostradamus got right about July 1999, was that Mars was very visible at night throughout the whole month. In most of the Northern Hemisphere, Mars was the brightest dot in the sky from sundown to midnight, and the only planet around in the evenings.

I believe Nostradamus was just making this stuff up. If a meteor does hit in September, I will publicly apologize. But, I am pretty certain Nostradamus will be proved wrong. Many of the quatrains of Nostradamus have been used multiple times as predictions of different events. Many others are so meaningless, they will never be used to interpret anything. The point is that the quatrains are usually assigned meaning after a big event occurs, thus creating a post-occurrence miracle effect. The sept mois in the quatrain has always been interpreted as July. If something happens in September that fits better, it will be thought that Nostradamus meant September all along.

Update (Oct. 1999): Headlines were even more boring in September than they were in July. A big earthquake hit Taiwan, but a bigger one hit Turkey in August. Hurricane Floyd was the only other exception. A link to the sight that predicted the meteor in September has been removed, the sight was shutdown.

The Mathematics of Prophecy and Chaos

As for the mathematics of prophecy, it is a primary task of mathematics to predict future outcomes. The process starts with collecting data to use as a starting point representing now. Then mathematically modeling every aspect of what you want to predict, then extrapolate (look) forward in time to produce a predicted outcome. Known flaws in the model can be used to figure out probable outcomes or what the odds are. Then different scenarios can be looked at and wise decisions can be made. In mathematics, prophecy is not about fate, it is about creating the future.

The problem is that it can be proven mathematically that prophecy in regards to most things is impossible. We can predict with reasonable accuracy the position of the planets in the sky and when and where eclipses will happen for the next 10,000 years. The accuracy is so good, even Nostradamus can predict when Mars will be in the sky 440 years into the future. Yet, we cannot accurately predict the weather beyond a 24 hour period. Welcome to Chaos theory where even the tiniest difference in the beginning could lead to radically different results.

In chaos theory, what is really important in predicting an outcome is to know exactly the initial state. For example, it might be possible to know the outcome of a throw of the dice if we know its exact starting position, its exact speed and its initial spin. But, if even one of these measures is even slightly off, most likely our projected outcome will be as well. The wind current in the room, like someone smoking a cigarette next to the table, could be enough to throw off the outcome. That is chaos.

Chaos affects every prediction, even though we know the position of the planets 10,000 years from now. We cannot measure the planets current position accurate enough to know where they will be positioned 1,000,000 years from now. You may ask what is stopping us from making accurate position readings so as to predict the future. The answer is the quantum uncertainty principle, which says it is impossible to measure accurately the position and the velocity of an electron at the same time. That uncertainty is enough not to know exactly where that electron will be a fraction of a second later.

Anything that relies on the position of molecules is affected heavily by chaos, what Einstein called Brownian motion. The weather is effected by the flow of air molecules, hence chaotic. We can predict weather accurately (within two degrees) about a day in advance, but extended forecasts beyond a week are just guesses. Predicting what a person is going to do in a given situation relies on the molecules and the flow of electrical energy within the brain. Hence largely chaotic.

So making even a vague statement about what will happen 440 years from now is pretty much impossible, unless you are a god capable of getting around the uncertainty principle or with the capabilities of forcing something to happen. As smart as Nostradamus was, I seriously doubt he is capable of either of these.

Newcomb's Paradox

All of the problems inherent in prophecy can be illustrated by a famous thought experiment called Newcomb's Paradox. A psychic approaches you with two boxes. The first box is yours to keep and either contains a million dollars or nothing. He then offers the second box which contains a thousand dollars, which you can take or leave. The psychic gives you this warning, "I have foreseen whether or not you will take the second box. If you do take the second box, you will find the first box will be empty. If you do not take the second box, the first box will have a million dollars. This is not a magic trick, the money will not vanish if it is in there, I have already made my choice and the box is yours." This psychic is pretty accurate, he is known to be right 90% of the time. Do you take the guaranteed thousand dollars or do you pass and hope the psychic was right and take the million.

Obviously, the million dollars is what you want, but you have a guaranteed $1000. The box that might contain the money is yours already regardless of the psychics claim. Why not take the other box as well?

On the other hand, if the psychic really is 90% accurate, the expected return on taking the second box is $101,000. While the expected return if you leave the second box behind is $900,000. Playing the percentages means leaving the second box. You are only wagering money that is not yours to begin with, if you lose you are back to where you started.

This problem, dating back to the 60's has been analyzed to death with various scientific and science fiction explanations. See the last chapter of the book Labyrinths of Reason by William Poundstone for a complete summary. The ultimate conclusion of this paradox analysis is one of two possibilities: 1. the psychic is really a hypnotist who is controlling your choice by hypnotic suggestion, probably forcing you to take the second box so he is not out a million. 2. the psychic did a survey and found that 90% of the population believes in psychic ability enough not to take the second box, so his 90% accurate claim will work if he always puts the million in the first box, ergo you may as well take the second box.

How to foresee the future

There is no such thing as fortune telling except accurate mathematical modeling which is possible only under certain circumstances. If God can see the future it is because he understands the mathematical model that underlies the whole universe.

Lets say you want everyone to think that you can see the future, how do you create the illusion. Here are five simple techniques:

1. The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy - This is a technique where your prediction is designed to evoke a psychological state that makes the prediction more likely. Take for example a person who is afraid to take a risk because the outcome may be bad. Predicting a good outcome may overcome the fear enough to actually cause a good outcome. This technique is popular with those psychics you see on TV. But, be careful, there is a big negative to the self-fulfilling prophecy. Last January, a radical Christian cult was exported from Israel. It was discovered that they had planned man made disasters so as to fulfill biblical prophecy. The book of Revelations predicts chaotic events prior to the second coming of Christ. They took it upon themselves the task of creating these chaotic events so as to cause the second coming in their eyes.
2. The "Curse" Prophecy - Similar to the self-fulfilling type, only less specific. By announcing that someone is "cursed" without giving details about what will happen, then anything that does happen will be blamed on the curse. We all have good and bad luck on a daily basis. Hearing that you are cursed highlights the bad luck experiences. A positive alternative would be the "blessed" prophecy.
3. The Obscure Prediction - In this technique, you make the prediction vague and symbolic that will only be understood after the event. Do not give a date, and do not put the predictions in chronological order. Use nonsense words like 'hister' and 'angolmois' and let people assign their own meaning to them. Disguise in satirical metaphors what you want to happen, and make them outrageous as possible to gain attention. Suffice it to say this is the technique used by Nostradamus, who probably got it studying the history of the Oracle at Delphi. Used by countless others throughout the centuries.
4. The Conditional Prophecy - This is where you make a prediction that will come about if some task is not completed, like "Be good or Santa will bring you a lump of coal." If the lump of coal does not appear then the person must have been good enough. For this to work, you either have to make the prediction a bit obscure or make the result obscure. In the Santa example, the condition is vague thus the results are the sign that the condition was met. A TV preacher saying "Send us a contribution and you will be richly blessed", or a letter saying "Send this to 20 people or you will be cursed", are making the result vague.
5. The Forced Outcome - Finally there is the old magicians standby of predicting an outcome, then causing the outcome to happen without anyone realizing it. Mind reading tricks are a dime a dozen at any magic store. A simple one is forcing a card: you have 9 cards, you want the person to pick a specific card, all you have to know is where the card is. Put the 9 cards into three piles of three, ask the person to pick two piles. If the card is in one of those that were picked, throw out the one they did not pick, if the card is in the one they did not pick, throw out the two they picked. Do this over and over until the person has the card you want them to have. They will feel like it was their choice which card they picked. This is one of many mind reading secrets known to most magicians.

In the world of mathematics, fortune telling is limited to that which can be accurately modeled, simulated, or statistically analyzed. Chaos theory says that there are limits to the accuracy of our predictions, based on how accurate our knowledge of the initial state is, and how far into the future we want to look. Fortune telling beyond these limits is nothing but psychological manipulation and trickery.

Back to the Glossary
Back to Archives