PROJECTIONS
Back in the
1980's, Bill James developed something he called "The Favorite Toy".
It's used to determine a player's chance of reaching a statistical goal.
He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical
playthings. Most of them are so specifically
baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite
Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here's how it
works.
There are four
things that need to be considered:
1 The need
points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need
blocks or whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player's age as of July 1st.
3 The
established point level. It's three times the most
recent season's point total plus two times the season before plus one times the
season before that, divided by 6. Marie Ferdinand,
for example, scored 470 points in 2003, 489 points in 2002, and 366 points in
2001. ((470*3)+(489*2)+366)/6 = 459, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the
established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under
consideration. Players in their first or second year
get 0's for the previous seasons in which they did not play.
4 The projected
remaining points. Multiply the years remaining by
the established point level. Once again, this could
be rebounds or whatever.
Once you have
the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining
divided by need) - .5. If the need and the projected
remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.
If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be
70%.
One special
rule, a player's chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 | 14000 |
| Lisa Leslie | 5412 | 30% | ||||||||
| Lauren Jackson | 97% | 97% | 97% | 80% | 53% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 6% | 1% |
| Diana Taurasi | 97% | 97% | 77% | 54% | 37% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 4% | |
| Seimone Augustus | 97% | 87% | 62% | 45% | 32% | 23% | 15% | 9% | 4% | |
| Tina Thompson | 97% | 78% | 17% | |||||||
| Alana Beard | 97% | 74% | 49% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | |||
| Deanna Nolan | 97% | 62% | 35% | 18% | 7% | |||||
| Penny Taylor | 97% | 55% | 30% | 15% | 5% | |||||
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 54% | 27% | 11% | 1% | |||||
| Tangela Smith | 97% | 40% | 12% | |||||||
| Katie Smith | 97% | 18% | ||||||||
| Katie Douglas | 79% | 42% | 21% | 8% | ||||||
| Nykesha Sales | 77% | 15% | ||||||||
| Candice Dupree | 63% | 40% | 25% | 14% | 6% | 1% | ||||
| Cappie Pondexter | 61% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 4% | |||||
| Sophia Young | 50% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 1% | |||||
| Sue Bird | 48% | 21% | 5% | |||||||
| Asjha Jones | 47% | 24% | 9% | 1% | ||||||
| Becky Hammon | 46% | 15% | ||||||||
| Betty Lennox | 44% | 13% | ||||||||
| Lindsay Whalen | 41% | 21% | 8% | 1% | ||||||
| Nicole Ohdle | 37% | 18% | 5% | |||||||
| Michelle Snow | 37% | 16% | 3% | |||||||
| Tamika Whitmore | 36% | 9% | ||||||||
| Nicole Powell | 35% | 17% | 6% | |||||||
| Shameka Christon | 34% | 16% | 4% | |||||||
| Swin Cash | 30% | 8% | ||||||||
| Svet Abrosimova | 29% | 9% | ||||||||
| Chastity Melvin | 24% | |||||||||
| Tan White | 22% | 7% | ||||||||
| Plenette Pierson | 22% | 6% | ||||||||
| Iziane Castro Marques | 21% | 6% | ||||||||
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 21% | 2% | ||||||||
| Mwadi Mabika | 21% | |||||||||
| Sheryl Swoopes | 19% | |||||||||
| Delisha Milton | 17% | |||||||||
| Cheryl Ford | 16% | 1% | ||||||||
| Kara Lawson | 15% | 1% | ||||||||
| Rebekkah Brunson | 14% | 2% | ||||||||
| Jia Perkins | 12% | 1% | ||||||||
| Monique Currie | 11% | |||||||||
| Kelly Miller | 9% | |||||||||
| Cathrine Kraayveld | 7% | |||||||||
| Yolanda Griffith | 4% | |||||||||
| Shanna Crossley | 1% |
Next, rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 |
| Lauren Jackson | 97% | 43% | 14% |
| Lisa Leslie | 97% | ||
| Cheryl Ford | 91% | 32% | 7% |
| Michelle Snow | 49% | 12% | |
| Tamika Catchings | 48% | 9% | |
| Rebekkah Brunson | 41% | 12% | |
| Candice Dupree | 28% | 6% | |
| Nicole Ohlde | 24% | 1% | |
| Sophia Young | 20% | 1% | |
| Katie Feenstra | 17% | ||
| Tangela Smith | 17% | ||
| Penny Taylor | 13% | ||
| Asjha Jones | 10% | ||
| Chasity Melvin | 9% | ||
| Swin Cash | 8% | ||
| Christi Thomas | 7% | ||
| Ruth Riley | 5% | ||
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 5% | ||
| Margo Dydek | 4% | ||
| Ebony Hoffman | 4% | ||
| Sancho Lyttle | 3% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 97% | |
| Sue Bird | 76% | 10% |
| Lindsay Whalen | 50% | 7% |
| Diana Taurasi | 30% | |
| Nikki Teasley | 21% | |
| Loree Moore | 17% | |
| Deanna Nolan | 14% | |
| Tamika Catchings | 9% | |
| Temeka Johnson | 4% | |
| Kelly Miller | 1% |
Steals
| Player | 750 | 1000 | 1500 |
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 54% | 3% |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 46% | ||
| Alana Beard | 45% | 14% | |
| Katie Douglas | 40% | 6% | |
| Loree Moore | 39% | 13% | |
| Lindsay Whalen | 30% | 6% | |
| Sue Bird | 26% | ||
| Deanna Nolan | 24% | ||
| Svetlana Abrosimova | 17% | ||
| Penny Taylor | 16% | ||
| Sophia Young | 16% | ||
| Diana Taurasi | 11% | ||
| Jia Perkins | 8% | ||
| Nykesha Sales | 3% |
Blocks
| Player | 500 | 1000 |
| Margo Dydek | 877 | 84% |
| Lisa Leslie | 692 | |
| Lauren Jackson | 97% | 32% |
| Ruth Riley | 97% | 6% |
| Tangela Smith | 97% | |
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 97% | |
| Michelle Snow | 43% | |
| Candice Dupree | 20% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 16% | |
| Katie Feenstra | 13% | |
| Janell Burse | 5% | |
| Tamika Catchings | 5% | |
| Shameka Christon | 4% |
These are all current as of the end of the 2007 season!