PROJECTIONS
Back in the
1980's, Bill James developed something he called "The Favorite Toy".
It's used to determine a player's chance of reaching a statistical goal.
He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical
playthings. Most of them are so specifically
baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite
Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here's how it
works.
There are four
things that need to be considered:
1 The need
points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need
blocks or whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player's age as of July 1st.
3 The
established point level. It's three times the most
recent season's point total plus two times the season before plus one times the
season before that, divided by 6. Marie Ferdinand,
for example, scored 470 points in 2003, 489 points in 2002, and 366 points in
2001. ((470*3)+(489*2)+366)/6 = 459, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the
established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under
consideration. Players in their first or second year
get 0's for the previous seasons in which they did not play.
4 The projected
remaining points. Multiply the years remaining by
the established point level. Once again, this could
be rebounds or whatever.
Once you have
the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining
divided by need) - .5. If the need and the projected
remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.
If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be
70%.
One special
rule, a player's chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 6263 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 |
| Tina Thompson | 5865 | 97% | 97% | 16% | ||||||
| Katie Smith | 5446 | 65% | 28% | |||||||
| Lauren Jackson | 5101 | 97% | 97% | 97% | 56% | 29% | 13% | 2% | ||
| Diana Taurasi | 97% | 97% | 97% | 97% | 67% | 44% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 2% |
| Deanna Nolan | 97% | 93% | 76% | 46% | 22% | 8% | ||||
| Cappie Pondexter | 97% | 86% | 77% | 56% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 1% | |
| Candice Dupree | 97% | 75% | 67% | 50% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 5% | ||
| Sophia Young | 97% | 75% | 67% | 49% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 4% | ||
| Alana Beard | 97% | 74% | 63% | 42% | 23% | 11% | 2% | |||
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 64% | 51% | 25% | 6% | |||||
| Katie Douglas | 97% | 53% | 43% | 22% | 6% | |||||
| Becky Hammon | 97% | 41% | 30% | 10% | ||||||
| Tangela Smith | 97% | 15% | 5% | |||||||
| Sue Bird | 88% | 38% | 30% | 14% | 1% | |||||
| Nicole Powell | 77% | 43% | 37% | 23% | 10% | 1% | ||||
| Asjha Jones | 75% | 36% | 29% | 15% | 3% | |||||
| Shameka Christon | 70% | 38% | 32% | 19% | 7% | |||||
| Seimone Augustus | 66% | 35% | 29% | 17% | 6% | |||||
| Lindsay Whalen | 57% | 28% | 23% | 12% | 1% | |||||
| Betty Lennox | 55% | 8% | 2% | |||||||
| Chamique Holdsclaw | 54% | |||||||||
| Jia Perkins | 53% | 28% | 24% | 13% | 3% | |||||
| Swin Cash | 53% | 17% | 11% | 1% | ||||||
| Candice Wiggins | 48% | 29% | 25% | 16% | 6% | |||||
| Candace Parker | 38% | 21% | 17% | 9% | 1% | |||||
| Iziane Castro Marques | 36% | 15% | 11% | 3% | ||||||
| Janel McCarville | 31% | 13% | 10% | 2% | ||||||
| Charde Houston | 23% | 9% | 6% | 1% | ||||||
| Nicky Anosike | 19% | 6% | 3% | |||||||
| Sancho Lyttle | 19% | 5% | 2% | |||||||
| Monique Currie | 19% | 4% | 1% | |||||||
| Rebekkah Brunson | 19% | 3% | 1% | |||||||
| Tan White | 18% | 2% | 1% | |||||||
| Tanisha Wright | 16% | 2% | 1% | |||||||
| Crystal Langhorne | 11% | 1% | ||||||||
| Lindsey Harding | 11% | |||||||||
| Ebony Hoffman | 11% | |||||||||
| Kara Lawson | 11% | |||||||||
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 10% | |||||||||
| Taj McWilliams | 10% | |||||||||
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 9% | |||||||||
| Essence Carson | 8% | |||||||||
| Camille Little | 8% | |||||||||
| Sandrine Gruda | 6% | |||||||||
| Delisha Milton | 5% | |||||||||
| Michelle Snow | 4% | |||||||||
| Ann Wauters | 2% | |||||||||
| Matee Ajavon | 1% | |||||||||
| Kara Braxton | 1% | |||||||||
| Cheryl Ford | 1% | |||||||||
| Angel McCoughtry | 1% | |||||||||
| Penny Taylor | 1% |
Next, rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 3307 | 4000 | 5000 |
| Lauren Jackson | 72% | 42% | 9% | |
| Candice Dupree | 69% | 53% | 29% | 10% |
| Cheryl Ford | 62% | 38% | 9% | |
| Tamika Catchings | 48% | 27% | 1% | |
| Candace Parker | 40% | 30% | 14% | 1% |
| Rebekkah Brunson | 31% | 19% | 2% | |
| Sancho Lyttle | 30% | 20% | 5% | |
| Sophia Young | 28% | 18% | 3% | |
| Ebony Hoffman | 27% | 17% | 2% | |
| Michelle Snow | 27% | 12% | ||
| Crystal Langhorne | 23% | 15% | 2% | |
| Nicky Anosike | 22% | 14% | 2% | |
| Swin Cash | 16% | 5% | ||
| Camille Little | 14% | 7% | ||
| Taj McWilliams | 10% | |||
| Nicole Powell | 8% | 1% | ||
| Tangela Smith | 8% | |||
| Kara Braxton | 5% | |||
| Asjha Jones | 4% | |||
| Janel McCarville | 4% | |||
| Diana Taurasi | 4% | |||
| Erika de Souza | 3% | |||
| Tina Thompson | 3% | |||
| Sylvia Fowles | 1% | |||
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 1% | |||
| Lindsay Whalen | 1% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 2178 | |
| Sue Bird | 97% | 15% |
| Lindsay Whalen | 55% | 4% |
| Cappie Pondexter | 27% | |
| Loree Moore | 22% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 16% | |
| Deanna Nolan | 14% | |
| Noelle Quinn | 10% | |
| Temeka Johnson | 7% | |
| Lindsey Harding | 6% | |
| Tanisha Wright | 3% |
Steals
| Player | 750 | 1000 |
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 59% |
| Alana Beard | 64% | 19% |
| Nicky Anosike | 58% | 26% |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 55% | |
| Jia Perkins | 42% | 11% |
| Loree Moore | 41% | 11% |
| Katie Douglas | 35% | |
| Sancho Lyttle | 29% | 4% |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 23% | 3% |
| Sophia Young | 22% | 1% |
| Sue Bird | 19% | |
| Lindsay Whalen | 19% | |
| Deanna Nolan | 14% | |
| Candice Wiggins | 12% | |
| Nicole Powell | 10% | |
| Ebony Hoffman | 8% | |
| Angel McCoughtry | 7% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 5% | |
| Tanisha Wright | 5% | |
| Janel McCarville | 3% | |
| Candice Dupree | 1% |
Blocks
| Player | 500 | 877 | 1000 |
| Lauren Jackson | 530 | 26% | 6% |
| Tangela Smith | 509 | ||
| Ruth Riley | 97% | 5% | |
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 97% | ||
| Candace Parker | 85% | 17% | 8% |
| Candice Dupree | 59% | 3% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 47% | ||
| Sandrine Gruda | 21% | ||
| Sylvia Fowles | 17% | ||
| Janel McCarville | 17% | ||
| Nicky Anosike | 14% | ||
| Michelle Snow | 9% | ||
| Erika de Souza | 6% |
These are all current as of the end of the 2009 season!