PROJECTIONS

Back in the 1980's, Bill James developed something he called "The Favorite Toy".  It's used to determine a player's chance of reaching a statistical goal.  He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical playthings.  Most of them are so specifically baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite Toy can be used with very little modification.

 

Here's how it works.

There are four things that need to be considered:

1 The need points.  The number of points needed to each the goal.  This could also be the need rebounds or need blocks or whatever stat is being considered.

2 The years remaining.  This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age).  Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5.  Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age.  I used the player's age as of July 1st.

3 The established point level.  It's three times the most recent season's point total plus two times the season before plus one times the season before that, divided by 6.  Marie Ferdinand, for example, scored 470 points in 2003, 489 points in 2002, and 366 points in 2001.  ((470*3)+(489*2)+366)/6 = 459, so that was her established point level.  Again, this could be the established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under consideration.  Players in their first or second year get 0's for the previous seasons in which they did not play.

4 The projected remaining points.  Multiply the years remaining by the established point level.  Once again, this could be rebounds or whatever.

Once you have the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining divided by need) - .5.  If the need and the projected remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.  If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be 70%.

One special rule, a player's chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.

I'm sure that's as clear as mud.  Feel free to ask questions!

Points first
Player 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000
Lisa Leslie 5909 97% 1%              
Tina Thompson 5424 97% 28%              
Katie Smith 5077 26%                
Diana Taurasi 97% 97% 97% 73% 51% 36% 25% 16% 9% 4%
Lauren Jackson 97% 97% 97% 60% 35% 20% 9% 1%    
Seimone Augustus 97% 97% 74% 53% 38% 27% 18% 11% 6% 1%
Alana Beard 97% 78% 49% 30% 18% 9% 2%      
Cappie Pondexter 97% 73% 49% 33% 21% 13% 6% 1%    
Deanna Nolan 97% 73% 39% 19% 7%          
Candice Dupree 97% 68% 46% 31% 20% 12% 5% 1%    
Katie Douglas 97% 47% 22% 7%            
Tamika Catchings 97% 40% 14% 1%            
Tangela Smith 97% 21%                
Sophia Young 90% 59% 39% 25% 15% 7% 1%      
Asjha Jones 80% 44% 23% 10% 1%          
Betty Lennox 80% 28% 6%              
Becky Hammon 78% 27% 5%              
Sue Bird 75% 35% 15% 2%            
Shameka Christon 52% 28% 13% 3%            
Lindsay Whalen 50% 26% 11% 1%            
Nicole Powell 49% 26% 11% 2%            
Jia Perkins 47% 26% 12% 3%            
Swin Cash 42% 14%                
Tamika Whitmore 42% 8%                
Monique Currie 29% 13% 3%              
Michelle Snow 29% 8%                
Kara Lawson 27% 9%                
Plenette Pierson 26% 8%                
Tan White 24% 8%                
Tammy Sutton-Brown 24% 2%                
Candace Parker 23% 9% 1%              
Penny Taylor 23% 1%                
Sheryl Swoopes 22%                  
Janel McCarville 20% 6%                
Delisha Milton 18%                  
Rebekkah Brunson 17% 3%                
Iziane Castro Marques 15% 1%                
Cathrine Kraayeveld 14% 1%                
Nicole Ohdle 14%                  
Chastity Melvin 10%                  
Candice Wiggins 9%                  
Cheryl Ford 6%                  
Kelly Miller 3%                  
Yolanda Griffith 2%                  
Ebony Hoffman 1%                  









































 

 

Next, rebounds

Player 3000 4000 5000
Lisa Leslie 3156    
Lauren Jackson 78% 18%  
Cheryl Ford 64% 14%  
Candice Dupree 57% 24% 7%
Michelle Snow 50% 9%  
Rebekkah Brunson 39% 9%  
Tamika Catchings 30%    
Ebony Hoffman 27% 3%  
Sophia Young 26% 4%  
Asjha Jones 16%    
Tangela Smith 13%    
Candace Parker 11%    
Swin Cash 9%    
Sancho Lyttle 8%    
Tammy Sutton-Brown 8%    
Tina Thompson 7%    
Cathrine Kraayeveld 6%    
Nicole Ohlde 6%    
Katie Feenstra 5%    
Kara Braxton 4%    
Nicole Powell 2%    
Lindsay Whalen 2%    
Janel McCarville 1%    
Diana Taurasi 1%    




 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Assists

Player 2000 3000
Ticha Penicheiro 2023  
Sue Bird 92% 11%
Lindsay Whalen 54% 6%
Loree Moore 24%  
Diana Taurasi 23%  
Deanna Nolan 21%  
Cappie Pondexter 13%  
Alana Beard 4%  
Kelly Miller 4%  

 

Steals

Player 750 1000
Tamika Catchings 97% 30%
Ticha Penicheiro 91%  
Alana Beard 46% 12%
Katie Douglas 37% 1%
Loree Moore 34% 8%
Sophia Young 30% 6%
Lindsay Whalen 26% 1%
Jia Perkins 25% 2%
Sue Bird 20%  
Deanna Nolan 17%  
Diana Taurasi 13%  
Alexis Hornbuckle 12%  
Nicky Anosike 8%  
Candice Dupree 3%  
Janel McCarville 1%  
Tan White 1%  

 

Blocks

Player 500 1000
Margo Dydek 877  
Lisa Leslie 789  
Lauren Jackson 97% 10%
Ruth Riley 97%  
Tangela Smith 97%  
Tammy Sutton-Brown 97%  
Candice Dupree 51%  
Candace Parker 43%  
Michelle Snow 36%  
Diana Taurasi 36%  
Plenette Pierson 8%  
Allison Bales 7%  
Katie Feenstra 7%  
Latoya Pringle 4%  


These are all current as of the end of the 2008 season!