PROJECTIONS
Back in the
1980's, Bill James developed something he called "The Favorite Toy".
It's used to determine a player's chance of reaching a statistical goal.
He developed it for baseball, along with many other statistical
playthings. Most of them are so specifically
baseball oriented as to not be adaptable to any other sport, but The Favorite
Toy can be used with very little modification.
Here's how it
works.
There are four
things that need to be considered:
1 The need
points. The number of points needed to each the
goal. This could also be the need rebounds or need
blocks or whatever stat is being considered.
2 The years remaining. This is represented by a formula: 27-(.75*age). Thus a 20 year old player has 12 years remaining, a 25 year old has 8.25, a 30 year old has 4.5. Any player that plays regularly is considered to have 1.5 years remaining no matter what their age. I used the player's age as of July 1st.
3 The
established point level. It's three times the most
recent season's point total plus two times the season before plus one times the
season before that, divided by 6. Marie Ferdinand,
for example, scored 470 points in 2003, 489 points in 2002, and 366 points in
2001. ((470*3)+(489*2)+366)/6 = 459, so that was her
established point level. Again, this could be the
established rebound level or block level or whatever stat is under
consideration. Players in their first or second year
get 0's for the previous seasons in which they did not play.
4 The projected
remaining points. Multiply the years remaining by
the established point level. Once again, this could
be rebounds or whatever.
Once you have
the projected remaining, the chance of reaching the goal is (projected remaining
divided by need) - .5. If the need and the projected
remaining are the same, the player would have a 50% chance of reaching the goal.
If the projected remaining is 20% higher than need, the chance would be
70%.
One special
rule, a player's chance of reaching a goal can never exceed 97%.
| Player | 5000 | 6000 | 7000 | 8000 | 9000 | 10000 | 11000 | 12000 | 13000 | 14000 |
| Lisa Leslie | 5909 | 97% | 1% | |||||||
| Tina Thompson | 5424 | 97% | 28% | |||||||
| Katie Smith | 5077 | 26% | ||||||||
| Diana Taurasi | 97% | 97% | 97% | 73% | 51% | 36% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% |
| Lauren Jackson | 97% | 97% | 97% | 60% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 1% | ||
| Seimone Augustus | 97% | 97% | 74% | 53% | 38% | 27% | 18% | 11% | 6% | 1% |
| Alana Beard | 97% | 78% | 49% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 2% | |||
| Cappie Pondexter | 97% | 73% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 1% | ||
| Deanna Nolan | 97% | 73% | 39% | 19% | 7% | |||||
| Candice Dupree | 97% | 68% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 12% | 5% | 1% | ||
| Katie Douglas | 97% | 47% | 22% | 7% | ||||||
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 40% | 14% | 1% | ||||||
| Tangela Smith | 97% | 21% | ||||||||
| Sophia Young | 90% | 59% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 7% | 1% | |||
| Asjha Jones | 80% | 44% | 23% | 10% | 1% | |||||
| Betty Lennox | 80% | 28% | 6% | |||||||
| Becky Hammon | 78% | 27% | 5% | |||||||
| Sue Bird | 75% | 35% | 15% | 2% | ||||||
| Shameka Christon | 52% | 28% | 13% | 3% | ||||||
| Lindsay Whalen | 50% | 26% | 11% | 1% | ||||||
| Nicole Powell | 49% | 26% | 11% | 2% | ||||||
| Jia Perkins | 47% | 26% | 12% | 3% | ||||||
| Swin Cash | 42% | 14% | ||||||||
| Tamika Whitmore | 42% | 8% | ||||||||
| Monique Currie | 29% | 13% | 3% | |||||||
| Michelle Snow | 29% | 8% | ||||||||
| Kara Lawson | 27% | 9% | ||||||||
| Plenette Pierson | 26% | 8% | ||||||||
| Tan White | 24% | 8% | ||||||||
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 24% | 2% | ||||||||
| Candace Parker | 23% | 9% | 1% | |||||||
| Penny Taylor | 23% | 1% | ||||||||
| Sheryl Swoopes | 22% | |||||||||
| Janel McCarville | 20% | 6% | ||||||||
| Delisha Milton | 18% | |||||||||
| Rebekkah Brunson | 17% | 3% | ||||||||
| Iziane Castro Marques | 15% | 1% | ||||||||
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 14% | 1% | ||||||||
| Nicole Ohdle | 14% | |||||||||
| Chastity Melvin | 10% | |||||||||
| Candice Wiggins | 9% | |||||||||
| Cheryl Ford | 6% | |||||||||
| Kelly Miller | 3% | |||||||||
| Yolanda Griffith | 2% | |||||||||
| Ebony Hoffman | 1% |
Next, rebounds
| Player | 3000 | 4000 | 5000 |
| Lisa Leslie | 3156 | ||
| Lauren Jackson | 78% | 18% | |
| Cheryl Ford | 64% | 14% | |
| Candice Dupree | 57% | 24% | 7% |
| Michelle Snow | 50% | 9% | |
| Rebekkah Brunson | 39% | 9% | |
| Tamika Catchings | 30% | ||
| Ebony Hoffman | 27% | 3% | |
| Sophia Young | 26% | 4% | |
| Asjha Jones | 16% | ||
| Tangela Smith | 13% | ||
| Candace Parker | 11% | ||
| Swin Cash | 9% | ||
| Sancho Lyttle | 8% | ||
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 8% | ||
| Tina Thompson | 7% | ||
| Cathrine Kraayeveld | 6% | ||
| Nicole Ohlde | 6% | ||
| Katie Feenstra | 5% | ||
| Kara Braxton | 4% | ||
| Nicole Powell | 2% | ||
| Lindsay Whalen | 2% | ||
| Janel McCarville | 1% | ||
| Diana Taurasi | 1% |
Assists
| Player | 2000 | 3000 |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 2023 | |
| Sue Bird | 92% | 11% |
| Lindsay Whalen | 54% | 6% |
| Loree Moore | 24% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 23% | |
| Deanna Nolan | 21% | |
| Cappie Pondexter | 13% | |
| Alana Beard | 4% | |
| Kelly Miller | 4% |
Steals
| Player | 750 | 1000 |
| Tamika Catchings | 97% | 30% |
| Ticha Penicheiro | 91% | |
| Alana Beard | 46% | 12% |
| Katie Douglas | 37% | 1% |
| Loree Moore | 34% | 8% |
| Sophia Young | 30% | 6% |
| Lindsay Whalen | 26% | 1% |
| Jia Perkins | 25% | 2% |
| Sue Bird | 20% | |
| Deanna Nolan | 17% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 13% | |
| Alexis Hornbuckle | 12% | |
| Nicky Anosike | 8% | |
| Candice Dupree | 3% | |
| Janel McCarville | 1% | |
| Tan White | 1% |
Blocks
| Player | 500 | 1000 |
| Margo Dydek | 877 | |
| Lisa Leslie | 789 | |
| Lauren Jackson | 97% | 10% |
| Ruth Riley | 97% | |
| Tangela Smith | 97% | |
| Tammy Sutton-Brown | 97% | |
| Candice Dupree | 51% | |
| Candace Parker | 43% | |
| Michelle Snow | 36% | |
| Diana Taurasi | 36% | |
| Plenette Pierson | 8% | |
| Allison Bales | 7% | |
| Katie Feenstra | 7% | |
| Latoya Pringle | 4% |
These are all current as of the end of the 2008 season!