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For more information on notebooks and Mathematica-compatible applications, contact Wolfram Research: web: http://www.wolfram.com email: info@wolfram.com phone: +1-217-398-0700 (U.S.) Notebook reader applications are available free of charge from Wolfram Research. ***********************************************************************) (*CacheID: 232*) (*NotebookFileLineBreakTest NotebookFileLineBreakTest*) (*NotebookOptionsPosition[ 41993, 1184]*) (*NotebookOutlinePosition[ 65987, 2052]*) (* CellTagsIndexPosition[ 65943, 2048]*) (*WindowFrame->Normal*) Notebook[{ Cell[TextData[StyleBox["Deterministic Variables of Discounted Cash Flow \ Analysis", FontSize->16]], "Text"], Cell["\<\ This notebook performs a number of functions (a)\tIt lists all the relevant variables required to perform a multiperiod \ discounted \tcash flow analysis of a real estate investment (b)\tIt performs that analysis, computing net present value and internal rate \ of return (c)\tIt demonstrates the interdependencies between the variables (d)\tIt sets up a series of scenarios for evaluating risk via sensitivity \ testing\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ StyleBox[\(\(Off[General::spell1];\)\n \(Off[General::spell];\)\), FontFamily->"Courier New"]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(Null\^2\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "General inputs, rule of thumb measures and other investment performance \ variable definitions are:\n\ndp\t=\tdown payment, made at t=0 and assumed to \ be Jan 1 of the acquisition year. \n", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`cf\_0\)]], "\t=\tinitial cash flow to be received at the end of year 1 (atcf)\n", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`cf\_n\)]], "\t=\tsubsequent year cash flows, compounded annually based on growth rate, \ g\ncr", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`\_i\)]], "\t=\t\"going in\" capitalization rate\n", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`cr\_o\)]], "\t=\t\"going out\" capitalization rate\nr\t=\tdiscount rate (when pv = 0 \ this is the internal rate of return)\ng\t=\tgrowth rate for cash flow, as \ described above\nn\t=\tspecific year of the holding period (an iterator in ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " statements)\nk\t=\tlength of holding period (also year of sale, presumed \ to be at the end of the year)\ngrm\t=\tgross rent multiplier\nppu\t=\tprice \ per unit\nnpv \t=\tnet present value\n\nOperating variable definitions are:\n\ \ngsi\t=\tgross scheduled income\nvac\t=\tvacancy \nvacrt\t=\tvacancy factor \ (a rate multiplied times gsi)\negi\t=\teffective gross income\nexp\t=\t\ operating expenses\nexprt\t=\texpense factor (a rate multiplied times egi)\n\ noi\t=\tnet operating income (debt free cash flow)\t\nbtcf\t=\tbefore tax \ cash flow\n\nFinancing variable definitions are:\n\nltv\t=\tloan to value \ ratio\ndcr\t=\tdebt coverage ratio\nds\t=\tdebt service (usually paid monthly \ but annualized for the purpose of analysis)\ni\t=\tinterest rate (per payment \ period - if monthly, then i = annual interest/12) \ninitln\t=\tinitial loan \ balance\nt\t=\ttime period in payment periods over which the loan is fully \ amortized \n\t\t(if monthly, then t = years over which loan is amortized", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`*\)]], "12)\n", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`bal\_n\)]], "\t=\tbalance at end of period n\n", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`int\_n\)]], "\t=\tinterest paid over the 12 months prior to n\n\nIncome tax variable \ definitions are:\n\ntx\t=\tincome tax consequences \ntxrt\t=\tincome tax rate\ \ntxbl\t=\treal estate taxable income\nbasis\t=\tincome tax basis (dp + \ initln - accdepn)\nland\t=\tallocation of tax basis to land (as a percent of \ total value)\ndepn\t=\tannual depreciation\ndprt\t=\tdepreciation rate\n\n\ Equity reversion variable definitions are:\n\nsp\t=\tsales price calculated \ as ", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`noi\_\(k + 1\)\/cr\_o\)]], "\naccdp\t=\taccumulated depreciation\ncgtx\t=\tcapital gains tax (capital \ gain * capital gain rate)\ncg\t=\tcapital gain (sales price - basis - sales \ costs)\ncgrt\t=\tcapital gain tax rate\nsc\t=\tsales costs (sales cost rate * \ sales price)\nscrt\t=\tsales cost rate\nendbal\t=\tbalance of loan \ outstanding at the time of sale\nppmt\t=\tprepayment penalty on loan\ner\t=\t\ equity reversion (sales price - sales costs - endbal - ppmt - cgtx)\n\n\ Relationships between the variables ", StyleBox["for a single first year", FontSlant->"Italic"], " are as follows:" }], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth, CellDingbat->None], Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(vac = gsi*vacrt;\)\), "\n", \(\(egi = gsi - vac;\)\), "\n", \(\(exp = egi*exprt;\)\), "\n", \(\(noi = gsi - vac - exp;\)\), "\n", \(\(ds = 12\ \((i\/\(1 - 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^t\))\)\ initln;\)\), "\n", \(\(btcf = noi - ds;\)\), "\n", \(\(grm = \((dp + initln)\)/gsi;\)\), "\n", \(\(ppu = \((dp + initln)\)/units;\)\), "\n", \(\(dcr = noi/ds;\)\), "\n", \(\(ltv = initln/\((dp + initln)\);\)\), "\n", \(\(basis = dp + initln;\)\), "\n", \(\(depn = \((basis - \((basis*land)\))\)*dprt;\)\), "\n", \(\(bal\_12 = ds\/12\ \(1 - 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^\(t - 12\)\)\/i;\)\), "\n", \(\(int\_t = ds - \((initln - bal\_12)\);\)\), "\n", \(\(txbl = noi - int\_t - depn;\)\), "\n", \(\(tx = txbl*txrt;\)\), "\n", \(\(cf0 = btcf - tx;\)\), "\n", \(\(cri = noi/\((dp + initln)\);\)\n\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell["\<\ If we have a specific project in mind, the data for it is entered below in a \ list named \"data\"\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(data = {dp -> 375000, \n\t\tgsi -> 200000, \n\t\tvacrt -> .1, \n\t\texprt -> .35, \n\t\ttxrt -> \ .35, \n\t\tdprt -> 1/31, \n\t\tland -> .3, \n\t\tcro -> .0936, \n\t\tg -> .03, \n\ \t\ti -> .11/12, \n\t\tinitln -> 875000, \n\t\tt -> 360, \n\t\tr -> .14, \n\t\tk -> 5, \n\tscrt -> .075, \n\t cgrt -> .22, \n\tppmt -> 0, \nunits -> 22};\)\), "\n", \(data // TableForm\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {\(dp \[Rule] 375000\)}, {\(gsi \[Rule] 200000\)}, {\(vacrt \[Rule] 0.1`\)}, {\(exprt \[Rule] 0.35`\)}, {\(txrt \[Rule] 0.35`\)}, {\(dprt \[Rule] 1\/31\)}, {\(land \[Rule] 0.3`\)}, {\(cro \[Rule] 0.0936`\)}, {\(g \[Rule] 0.03`\)}, {\(i \[Rule] 0.009166666666666667`\)}, {\(initln \[Rule] 875000\)}, {\(t \[Rule] 360\)}, {\(r \[Rule] 0.14`\)}, {\(k \[Rule] 5\)}, {\(scrt \[Rule] 0.075`\)}, {\(cgrt \[Rule] 0.22`\)}, {\(ppmt \[Rule] 0\)}, {\(units \[Rule] 22\)} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ {dp -> 375000, gsi -> 200000, vacrt -> .10000000000000001, exprt -> .34999999999999998, txrt -> .34999999999999998, dprt -> Rational[ 1, 31], land -> .29999999999999999, cro -> .093600000000000003, g -> .029999999999999999, i -> .0091666666666666667, initln -> 875000, t -> 360, r -> .14000000000000001, k -> 5, scrt -> .074999999999999997, cgrt -> .22, ppmt -> 0, units -> 22}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ StyleBox["Important", FontWeight->"Bold", FontSlant->"Italic", FontVariations->{"Underline"->True}], StyleBox[":", FontWeight->"Bold", FontSlant->"Italic"], " The ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " convention \" /. \" may be read as \"given that\" and is used to \ insert values from the data into any equation.\n\nThe relationships defined \ above handle the simple \"rule of thumb\" tests applied to first year \ performance. Here are these in a list named \"rot\"" }], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(rot = N[TableForm[{cri, grm, ppu, btcf, dcr} /. data, TableHeadings -> {{"\", "\", "\", \ "\", "\"}}]]\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {"\<\"Cap Rate\"\>", "0.0936`"}, {"\<\"GRM\"\>", "6.25`"}, {"\<\"PPU\"\>", "56818.181818181816`"}, {"\<\"BTCF\"\>", "17006.043463113172`"}, {"\<\"DCR\"\>", "1.1700707127919254`"} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ {.093600000000000003, 6.25, 56818.181818181816, 17006.043463113172, 1.1700707127919254}, TableHeadings -> {{ "Cap Rate", "GRM", "PPU", "BTCF", "DCR"}}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ We can also compute the monthly loan payment. Note that since ds is defined \ as an annual amount we must divide out the 12 to return to monthly.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(ds/12 /. data\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(8332.829711407236`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "Likewise, here is the first year after tax cash flow"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cf0 /. data\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(19554.44957613444`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ For multiyear projection we need several series of computations spanning the \ years of the holding period. To begin, we need a method for determining the \ loan balance at the end of each year and a way of expressing each end-of-year \ loan balance in a table which we name \"amort\".\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(bal[n_] := ds\/12\ \(1 - 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^\(t - n*12\)\)\/i;\)\), "\n", \(amort = Table[bal[n] /. data, {n, 0, k /. data}]; amort // TableForm\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {"875000"}, {"871061.397334418`"}, {"866667.0241521397`"}, {"861764.1392194005`"}, {"856293.8981482456`"}, {"850190.6471466295`"} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ {875000, 871061.39733441803, 866667.02415213967, 861764.13921940047, 856293.89814824564, 850190.64714662952}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "We define the ending balance of the loan (endbal) as the balance at the end \ of the holding period, k"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(endbal\ = bal[k] /. data\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(850190.6471466295`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ We also need information about how much interest is paid each year, which is \ a function of the debt service, the beginning of year balance and the end of \ year balance on the loan. While we are at it, we also create a table showing \ each year's interest that we name \"intpd\"\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(int[n_] := \((ds /. data)\) - \((bal[n - 1] - bal[n])\)\), "\n", \(\tintpd = Table[int[n] /. data, {n, 1, k /. data}]; TableForm[intpd]\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {"96055.35387130489`"}, {"95599.58335460839`"}, {"95091.07160414767`"}, {"94523.71546573204`"}, {"93890.70553527074`"} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ {96055.353871304891, 95599.583354608389, 95091.07160414767, 94523.715465732035, 93890.705535270739}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "We can \"pick out\" any specific year of interest paid, for instance here is \ year 3 interest"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(intpd[\([3]\)]\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(95091.07160414767`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ We need a way to determine the amount of depreciation deduction taken through \ any specific time period. The most common use of this is to determine cost \ basis at the time of sale so that the capital gain amount may be calculated. \ Here is the accumulated depreciation for the project life, through the end \ year, k.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(accdp[n_] := depn*n\), "\n", \(accdp[k] /. data\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(141129.03225806452`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ We often assume that income grows by some rate over the holding period. \ Here, for simplicity, we assume the unlikely case of monotonic growth in a \ fixed unchanging amount each year, Below we illustrate the NOI for the last \ year of the holding period. Notice that since this is a function we cannot \ use the name \"noi\" which is already in use so we name this function \"netop\ \".\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(netop[n_] := noi\ \((1 + g)\)\^\(n - 1\)\), "\n", \(netop[k] /. data\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(131684.53076999998`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "We need to be able to calculate the annual income tax consequence of owning \ the property. Below we assume growing income, fixed interest on the loan and \ straight line depreciation. The illustration is for Year #3 income tax \ due"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(yrtx[n_] := \((noi\ \((1 + g)\)\^\(n - 1\) - int[n] - depn)\)* txrt\), "\n", \(yrtx[3] /. data\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(282.94768048379336`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "Relationships between the variables affecting the sale of the property at \ the end of the holding period are:"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(sp = \((noi\ \((1 + g)\)\^k)\)/cro;\)\), "\n", \(\(cg = sp - sc - basis + accdp[k];\)\), "\n", \(\(cgtx = cg*cgrt;\)\), "\n", \(\(sc\ = \ scrt*sp;\)\), "\n", \(\(er = sp - sc - cgtx - endbal - ppmt;\)\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[TextData[StyleBox[ "With these in place we can calculate the after tax equity reversion, er, \ given the data above"]], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(er /. data\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(439281.27151590853`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "A multiperiod projection involves compounding the change in the variables \ over the holding period. Compounding of cash flows is offset one year. The \ idea is that an investor on January 1 makes a decision to purchase based on \ his expectation of the income to be received at the end of the year. Thus, ", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`cf\_\(0\ \)\)]], " is the initial cash flow to be received at the end of year one. The first \ year of compounding is 12 months later at the end of year two, hence only n-1 \ years of ", StyleBox["compounded", FontSlant->"Italic"], " cash flows are in a holding period. This matter has repercussions when \ considering the equity reversion at the time of sale. ", StyleBox["Value", FontSlant->"Italic"], " still compounds for the full n periods. The rationale is that at the \ time of sale, the next investor anticipates the end-of-year income (to be \ received 12 months after his acquistion) in making his acquisition decision. \ So the first investor collects the first cash flow without any compounding \ and n-1 years of compounded cash flows but prices the property on the basis \ of n compounded cash flows.\n\nWe need a function that defines the after tax \ cash flow in any given year, with that we can compute any specific year's \ cash flow (here we calculate cash flow from year #3, given the data)" }], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(cf[n_] := noi\ \((1 + g)\)\^\(n - 1\) - ds - yrtx[n]\), "\n", \(\tcf[3] /. data\)}], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(23848.39578262936`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ In order to determine net present value we need a function that iterates each \ annual cash flow, takes their present value, sums these, adds the total to \ the present value of the after tax equity reversion and subtracts the initial \ investment (pd)\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(\(\n\)\(npv := er\/\((1 + r)\)\^k + \((\[Sum]\+\(n = 1\)\%k Evaluate[ cf[n]\/\((1 + r)\)\^n])\) - dp\)\)\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(npv /. data\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(-66766.2345509746`\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "We are interested in how the risk of financing a property such as this \ changes when the values of the variables change. One way to assess this is \ to use a numerical analysis software such as Excel supplemented with a risk \ add-in package such as @Risk. While this is fine for a project-by-project \ analysis, some changes are global in nature and affect all properties in the \ same way.\n\nA significant advantage of using ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " over a numerical method such as Excel is that one can see dependencies at \ the general level. For instance, in the simplest example, we look at what \ affects the gross rent multiplier. We know this equation as:\n\n\t\t\t\tgrm \ = ", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`value\/\(gross\ income\)\)]], "\n\t\t\t\t\nHence is would seem that grm is simply dependent upon two \ variables, the value and the gross income. ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " sees it differently. Because value is itself a combination of \ deterministic variables, when evaluating the expression grm ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " considers and displays variables in the antecedent equation that makes up \ value." }], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(grm\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(dp + initln\)\/gsi\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ So we see that three things determine the grm, not the two we originally \ thought.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[TextData[{ "Perhaps grm is too simple to illustrate the benefit of ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], ". One can see by inspection on what grm depends. More difficult and \ complex examples are at the other end of the extreme. When we look at what \ affects after tax cash flow we see a really ugly equation" }], "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cf0 // FullSimplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(gsi - \(12\ i\ \((1 + i)\)\^t\ initln\)\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\) - txrt\ \((initln + \(\(1\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\)\)\((initln\ \ \((\((1 + i)\)\^12 - \((1 + i)\)\^t\ \((1 + 12\ i)\) + dprt\ \((\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t)\)\ \((\(-1\) + land)\))\) + dp\ dprt\ \((\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t)\)\ \((\(-1\) + land)\))\)\) + \((\(-1\) + exprt)\)\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\))\) + exprt\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\) - gsi\ vacrt\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Sometimes we can gain insight by giving values to some of the variables. For \ instance, income tax rates, depreciation rates and land assessments are \ relatively fixed or at least handed down by government and out of the owner's \ ability to influence. Taking part of the data from our list, below we \ reproduce the equation above, reducing the number of variables to cap rate, \ loan amount, interest rate, expense and vacancy rates and the gross scheduled \ income. Do these affect cash flow? They certainly do!\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cf0 /. {txrt -> .35, dprt -> 1/31, land -> .3} // FullSimplify\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(gsi - \(12\ i\ \((1 + i)\)\^t\ initln\)\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\) + exprt\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\) - gsi\ vacrt - 0.35`\ \((gsi + initln - \(12\ i\ \((1 + i)\)\^t\ initln\)\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + \ i)\)\^t\) - \(\((1 + i)\)\^t\ \((1 - \((1 + i)\)\^\(12 - t\))\)\ initln\)\/\(\ \(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\) - 0.02258064516129032`\ \((dp + initln)\) + exprt\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\) - gsi\ vacrt)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Suppose we have already decided to purchase the property (or we already own \ it). Under those conditions we know the income, loan details and expense and \ vacancy factors. Inserting these show us that our cash flow is related to a \ bunch of constants and the interest rate. What does this tell us about the \ effect of variable interest rate loans? What does it tell us about so-called \ \"positive leverage\"?\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cf0 /. {txrt -> .35, dprt -> 1/31, land -> .3, gsi -> 200000, initln -> 875000, dp -> 375000, vacrt -> .1, exprt -> .35, t -> 360} // FullSimplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(\(117000.`\)\(\[InvisibleSpace]\)\) + \(10500000\ i\)\/\(\(-1\) + 1\/\ \((1 + i)\)\^360\) - 0.35`\ \((\(\(963774.1935483871`\)\(\[InvisibleSpace]\)\) + \(10500000\ \ i\)\/\(\(-1\) + 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^360\) + \(875000\ \((1 - 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^348)\ \)\)\/\(\(-1\) + 1\/\((1 + i)\)\^360\))\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Below, we calculate the going in capitalization rate, cri. Then, by varying \ the loan interest to a rate above and below the cap rate we show first \ negative leverage then positive leverage. Note the difference in cash flow.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cri /. data\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(0.0936`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ RowBox[{"cf0", "/.", RowBox[{"{", RowBox[{\(txrt -> .35\), ",", \(dprt -> 1/31\), ",", \(land -> .3\), ",", \(gsi -> 200000\), ",", \(initln -> 875000\), ",", \(dp -> 375000\), ",", \(vacrt -> .1\), ",", \(exprt -> .35\), ",", \(t -> 360\), ",", StyleBox[\(i -> .095/12\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]]}], "}"}]}]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(26652.268274118735`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ RowBox[{"cf0", "/.", RowBox[{"{", RowBox[{\(txrt -> .35\), ",", \(dprt -> 1/31\), ",", \(land -> .3\), ",", \(gsi -> 200000\), ",", \(initln -> 875000\), ",", \(dp -> 375000\), ",", \(vacrt -> .1\), ",", \(exprt -> .35\), ",", \(t -> 360\), ",", StyleBox[\(i -> .09/12\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]]}], "}"}]}]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(28921.247537626918`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Another awful looking equation is what goes into the witches brew we call the \ equity reversion. Note that since the loan is assumed to be paid off at the \ time of sale, the equation contains a constant, the final loan balance.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(er // FullSimplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(\(1\/cro\)\((cro\ \((\(-850190.6471466295`\) + cgrt\ \((dp + initln)\)\ \((\(\(1.`\)\(\[InvisibleSpace]\)\) + dprt\ k\ \((\(-1.`\) + 1.`\ land)\))\) - 1.`\ ppmt)\) + 1.`\ \((1 + g)\)\^k\ gsi\ \((\(\(1.`\)\(\[InvisibleSpace]\)\) - 1.`\ scrt - 1.`\ vacrt + 1.`\ scrt\ vacrt + exprt\ \((\(-1.`\) + 1.`\ scrt + 1.`\ vacrt - 1.`\ scrt\ vacrt)\) + cgrt\ \((\(-1.`\) + 1.`\ scrt + 1.`\ vacrt - 1.`\ scrt\ vacrt + exprt\ \((\(\(1.`\)\(\[InvisibleSpace]\)\) - 1.`\ scrt - 1.`\ vacrt + 1.`\ scrt\ vacrt)\))\))\))\)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ The capital gain is a little more more accessible. Note below that it is, \ not surprisingly, quite dependent on the going out capitalization rate.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cg // FullSimplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(-\(\(1\/cro\)\((cro\ \((dp + initln)\)\ \((1 + dprt\ k\ \((\(-1\) + land)\))\) + \((\(-1\) + exprt)\)\ \((1 + g)\)\^k\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + scrt)\)\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\))\)\)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ If we are interested in what drives before tax cash flow, we see that it is \ heavily dependent on the loan terms.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(btcf // FullSimplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(-\(\(12\ i\ \((1 + i)\)\^t\ initln\)\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\)\)\) \ + \((\(-1\) + exprt)\)\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Returning to an exceedingly simple term, the net operating income (or debt \ free before tax annual cash flow) is really only a function of the gross \ income and two rates, vacancy and expenses.\ \>", "Text", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(noi // Simplify\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ \(\((\(-1\) + exprt)\)\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Of course the debt service, ds (the annualized monthly loan payment) is a \ function of the interest rate, the term and the amount borrowed. Note the \ constant 12 multiplies out the monthly factor.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(ds\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(12\ i\ initln\)\/\(1 - \((1 + i)\)\^\(-t\)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ To recall Ellwood table #6 - the payment necessary to amortize a dollar, we \ divide out the 12 in our annual debt service equation and make the initial \ loan equal to 1.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(ds/12 /. initln -> 1\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(i\/\(1 - \((1 + i)\)\^\(-t\)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ A useful exercise is to ask what happens to cash flow if interest rates rise. \ Below, note the term with all the \" i \" variables in it. Of course it is \ debt service (all the other variables sum to NOI). Remembering what the \ negative exponent means in the denominator, we observe this function rising \ with rising interest rates. The entire term is negative so as it gets bigger, \ btcg grows smaller.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(btcf\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(gsi - \(12\ i\ initln\)\/\(1 - \((1 + i)\)\^\(-t\)\) - gsi\ vacrt - exprt\ \((gsi - gsi\ vacrt)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Suppose the vacancy increases. What does this do to after tax cash flow? \ Notice below it affects only the last term in the equation for first year \ cash flow. This is not too helpful as that last term also has the tax rate \ in it, something that has nothing to do with vacancy.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(cf0 // FullSimplify\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(gsi - \(12\ i\ \((1 + i)\)\^t\ initln\)\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\) - txrt\ \((initln + \(\(1\/\(\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t\)\)\((initln\ \ \((\((1 + i)\)\^12 - \((1 + i)\)\^t\ \((1 + 12\ i)\) + dprt\ \((\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t)\)\ \((\(-1\) + land)\))\) + dp\ dprt\ \((\(-1\) + \((1 + i)\)\^t)\)\ \((\(-1\) + land)\))\)\) + \((\(-1\) + exprt)\)\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\))\) + exprt\ gsi\ \((\(-1\) + vacrt)\) - gsi\ vacrt\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Most of the foregoing examples all have to do with isolating one \ deterministic variable. Does the change in one variable affect another? \ What about interest rates and capitalization rates? Vacancy and expenses? \ Are these related? Yes, they are. How about gross income and vacancy? What \ happens when two of these change? Let's take a simple example. When rents \ are increased vacancy should also increase. Below we see they both affect net \ operating income. The key question is: how much of one will neutralize the \ other. This is the sort of thing that sensitivity testing is doing. We are \ interested in knowing how sensitive tenants are to rent increases. Will a \ small increase cause an exodus of tenants?\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(noi\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(gsi - gsi\ vacrt - exprt\ \((gsi - gsi\ vacrt)\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Tenants may be assumed to stay if rent increases, relative to the old rent, \ are small and leave if they are large. Our interest is in knowing how much \ of a rent increase is too much, causing turnover and vacancy. One way to \ approach this is to assume a \"market equilibrium gross rent multiplier\". \ This is the grm at which most buildings provide a \"market\" cash flow and \ \"market\" return using \"market\" financing terms. We will assume our \ building is in a market where the average such grm is 6. Since we know the \ grm for our building: \ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(N[grm /. data]\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(6.25`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "We know we have to get the rents up to be at equilibrium. It turns out \ that there is a formula for the necessary increase in rent to drive the grm \ down to equilibrium. We define the required rent raise, rrr, as\n\n\t\t\t\t\ rrr = ", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`grm\/\(equilibrium\ grm\) - 1\)]] }], "Text"], Cell["\<\ So we ask for this number, below, and find that our required rent raise is \ just over 4%, which we conclude, after a careful rent survey in the \ neighborhood, the tenants will pay without excessive turnover or vacancy\ \>", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(rrr = N[\(grm /. data\)\/6 - 1]\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(0.041666666666666664`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ We now must modify our data to consider the higher rents to see what happens \ to npv. We define a new data set, data1, just like the first one with the \ only change being the gsi is increased by the rrr.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[BoxData[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{ StyleBox["data1", CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]], "=", RowBox[{"{", RowBox[{\(dp -> 375000\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", RowBox[{"gsi", "->", StyleBox[\(200000*\((1 + rrr)\)\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]]}], ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(vacrt -> .1\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(exprt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(txrt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(dprt -> 1/31\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(land -> .3\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(cro -> .0936\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(g -> .03\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(i -> .11/12\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(initln -> 875000\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(t -> 360\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(r -> .14\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(k -> 5\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(scrt -> .075\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(cgrt -> .22\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(ppmt -> 0\), ",", "\n", \(units -> 22\)}], "}"}]}], ";"}]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell["Then we ask what the npv is with this new information", "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(npv /. data1\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(\(-32678.294742158992`\)\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ Even with this improvement we still do not have a positive after tax net \ present value. Something has to change. We believe we have extracted the \ most out of the tenants in the form of increased rent. In the list below, \ data2, we assume a higher annual growth rate, 4%, on cash flow.\ \>", "Text"], Cell[BoxData[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"data2", "=", RowBox[{"{", RowBox[{\(dp -> 375000\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(gsi -> 200000*\((1 + rrr)\)\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(vacrt -> .1\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(exprt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(txrt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(dprt -> 1/31\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(land -> .3\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(cro -> .0936\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", StyleBox[\(g -> .04\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]], ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(i -> .11/12\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(initln -> 875000\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(t -> 360\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(r -> .14\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(k -> 5\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(scrt -> .075\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(cgrt -> .22\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(ppmt -> 0\), ",", "\n", \(units -> 22\)}], "}"}]}], ";"}]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(npv /. data2\)], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(366.5909463103744`\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell["\<\ As we can call this outcome close to zero, the project has an IRR of \ approximately 14%. But these modifications have the buyer taking all the \ risk. Why? What is a way to transfer some of that risk to the seller? Buy \ offering a lower price. Why is that a risk transfer? \"data3\" shows the \ reduction of down payment necessary to put the project in the positive NPV \ range. Note the return to g = .03 in the next data list:\ \>", "Text"], Cell[BoxData[ RowBox[{ RowBox[{"data3", "=", RowBox[{"{", RowBox[{ StyleBox[\(dp -> 337000\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]], ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(gsi -> 200000*\((1 + rrr)\)\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(vacrt -> .1\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(exprt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(txrt -> .35\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(dprt -> 1/31\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(land -> .3\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(cro -> .0936\), ",", "\n", StyleBox["\t\t", CellFrame->True, Background->None], StyleBox[\(g -> .03\), CellFrame->True, Background->GrayLevel[0.849989]], ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(i -> .11/12\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(initln -> 875000\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(t -> 360\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(r -> .14\), ",", "\n", "\t\t", \(k -> 5\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(scrt -> .075\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(cgrt -> .22\), ",", "\n", "\t", \(ppmt -> 0\), ",", "\n", \(units -> 22\)}], "}"}]}], ";"}]], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(rot = N[TableForm[{cri, grm, ppu, btcf, dcr} /. data, TableHeadings -> {{"\", "\", "\", \ "\", "\"}}]]\)], "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {"\<\"Cap Rate\"\>", "0.0936`"}, {"\<\"GRM\"\>", "6.25`"}, {"\<\"PPU\"\>", "56818.181818181816`"}, {"\<\"BTCF\"\>", "17006.043463113172`"}, {"\<\"DCR\"\>", "1.1700707127919254`"} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ {.093600000000000003, 6.25, 56818.181818181816, 17006.043463113172, 1.1700707127919254}, TableHeadings -> {{ "Cap Rate", "GRM", "PPU", "BTCF", "DCR"}}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[ \(N[TableForm[{npv, ltv, cri, cro} /. data3, TableHeadings -> {{"\", "\", "\", "\"}}]]\)], \ "Input", PageWidth->PaperWidth], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[GridBox[{ {"\<\"npv\"\>", "438.9684915058315`"}, {"\<\"ltv\"\>", "0.721947194719472`"}, {"\<\"cri\"\>", "0.10055693069306931`"}, {"\<\"cro\"\>", "0.0936`"} }, RowSpacings->1, ColumnSpacings->3, RowAlignments->Baseline, ColumnAlignments->{Left}], TableForm[ { 438.96849150583148, .721947194719472, .10055693069306931, \ .093600000000000003}, TableHeadings -> {{"npv", "ltv", "cri", "cro"}}]]], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "Note the implicit assumption that capitalization rates will decline over \ the holding period. How valid is this?\n\nThis outcome, also nearly zero, \ says we have approximately a 14% IRR. But is it the same 14%? Is the risk \ of the project different under data3 even though the IRR is essentially the \ same?\n\nFinally, for those who want to know what the IRR is, ", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " is as good at Excel in finding it. First we create a list of after tax \ cash flows which we name \"cflist\". Note that we start with year #1 and we \ have to add the equity reversion to the last year, which takes some \ additional manipulation to get cflist in the right form. (The only output \ below is the data being used in the calculations, placed there to remind us \ what our parameters are)." }], "Text"], Cell[BoxData[ \(<< LinearAlgebra`MatrixManipulation`\)], "Input"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(irrdata = data3\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(\(partlist = {Table[ cf[n] /. irrdata, {n, 1, k - 1 /. irrdata}]};\)\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(\(endcf = {{\((cf[k] /. irrdata)\) + \((er /. irrdata)\)}};\)\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(\(cflist = \(AppendRows[partlist, endcf]\)[\([1]\)];\)\)}], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \({dp \[Rule] 337000, gsi \[Rule] 208333.33333333334`, vacrt \[Rule] 0.1`, exprt \[Rule] 0.35`, txrt \[Rule] 0.35`, dprt \[Rule] 1\/31, land \[Rule] 0.3`, cro \[Rule] 0.0936`, g \[Rule] 0.03`, i \[Rule] 0.009166666666666667`, initln \[Rule] 875000, t \[Rule] 360, r \[Rule] 0.14`, k \[Rule] 5, scrt \[Rule] 0.075`, cgrt \[Rule] 0.22`, ppmt \[Rule] 0, units \[Rule] 22}\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[TextData[{ "The internal rate of return is the number that solves the following \ equation for r\n\n\t", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`\[Sum]\+\(n = 1\)\%k ATCF\_n\/\((1 + r)\)\^n\)]], "+", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`ATER\_k\/\((1 + r)\)\^k\)]], "- initial investment = 0\n\t\n", StyleBox["Mathematica", FontSlant->"Italic"], " considers this a problem of finding the \"root\" of the equation. Thus \ we need a polynomial into which we insert the cflist. We begin by creating \ a table that will represent the power series necessary. The variable v = ", Cell[BoxData[ \(TraditionalForm\`1\/\((1 + r)\)\)]] }], "Text"], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(irrtbl = Table[v\^i, {i, 1, Length[cflist]}];\)\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(irrpoly = irrtbl . cflist\)}], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ \(22422.876995489263`\ v + 24639.9198146455`\ v\^2 + 26909.800076984207`\ v\^3 + 29232.52058478873`\ v\^4 + 507036.38967702`\ v\^5\)], "Output"] }, Open ]], Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell[BoxData[{ \(\(irrstep2 = FindRoot[ irrpoly == \((dp /. irrdata)\), {v, 1/1.1, 0, 1}];\)\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(\(irr = \((v\^\(-1\) - 1)\) /. irrstep2[\([1]\)];\)\), "\[IndentingNewLine]", \(Print["\", irr]\)}], "Input"], Cell[BoxData[ InterpretationBox[\("The IRR for this data is: \ "\[InvisibleSpace]0.14033434230925268`\), SequenceForm[ "The IRR for this data is: ", .14033434230925268], Editable->False]], "Print"] }, Open ]] }, FrontEndVersion->"4.0 for Microsoft Windows", ScreenRectangle->{{0, 800}, {0, 527}}, WindowToolbars->"EditBar", WindowSize->{792, 500}, WindowMargins->{{0, Automatic}, {Automatic, 0}}, WindowAutoSelect->True, PrintingCopies->1, PrintingPageRange->{Automatic, Automatic}, Magnification->1.25, StyleDefinitions -> Notebook[{ Cell[CellGroupData[{ Cell["Style Definitions", "Subtitle"], Cell["\<\ Modify the definitions below to change the default appearance of all cells in \ a given style. 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If a cell's FormatType matches the name of one of the styles defined \ below, then that style is applied between the cell's style and its own \ options. 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