What is it about overpopulation that lets it go on? Can it go on? Is it likely to go on?
The Tragedy Of The Commons is powerful and caught the attention of a great many, yet trends continued and still continue.
The population curve is exponential. Exponentiation is not sustainable. Population projections seem to incorporate the unsustainability of exponentiation by rolling off after the clearly expnential rise during 1800-2010 or so.
So, the "unsustainability roll-off" will be caused by what?
What are the possibilities?
Food shortage, famine? Disease, Aids? War? That the numbers can go up if the squalor spreads? That if more people live short, brutish lives, that more people can be counted? That people control their numbers in some graceful, deliberate fashion? That someone deliver to the environment a general human contraceptive, like DDT to raptors a few years ago?
What is most likely to happen on the global population front? What will happen as a result?
The first question is fairly easy to answer in the shorter term: global population will continue its exponential growth until restrained by some external factor at present ineffective. We're at about six billion souls now, and will hit nine billion in the next few decades.
As for the second question, what will happen because of this increase in human numbers, nobody knows. But I have some (reasonable, I think) fears and hopes.
Fears are that humanity somehow winds up increasing its numbers to the point of ecological collapse and dieoff.
Hopes are that technology can stay ahead of the race while global humanity enwealths itself to sustainability even though transiting through some very tough times.
These are going to be interesting times.
