by Kevin Harlow
March 2, 2003
When discussing pitchers, one stat that the sabermetrically-minded crowd often looks at is league and park adjusted relative ERA, or *ERA+. *ERA+ is an attempt at a context-neutral metric, which would allow comparisons to be made across time periods and parks, and is defined as
*ERA+ = *LgERA/ERA
where *LgERA is the park adjusted ERA for the league and ERA is the pitcher's ERA.
However, games are won and lost based on runs, not earned runs. Unfortunately runs allowed was historically not compiled and publicized at a level equal to unearned runs, presumably because it was believed that the pitcher bears no responsibility for the unearned runs. With runs allowed known for the pitcher a metric such as
*RA+ = (*Lg(ERA+UERA)) / (ERA+UERA)
could be used to compare pitchers.
I have compiled the *RA+ for all pitchers for their careers and in each season. The data presented below is based on the career *RA+ and career *ERA+ for each pitcher. The players are listed in order of the ratio of their league and park adjusted total run average to their league and park adjusted earned run average.
RATIO = 100* (*RA+) / (*ERA+)
The lists below include only those pitchers whose first year began after 1919 and who pitched at least 2000 innings. The standard deviation of RATIO for these pitchers was 1.96. I will list those pitchers who exceeded the average of 100 by more than one standard deviation.
The table below includes those players whose *RA+ is much better than their *ERA+. These players are perhaps underrated by those looking at *ERA+.
Ratio Name 105.74 Ed Brandt 105.00 Alvin Crowder 104.61 Syl Johnson 104.03 Dave McNally 103.61 Joe Nuxhall 103.56 Luis Tiant 103.43 Dennis Eckersley 103.29 Red Lucas 103.26 Curt Schilling 103.21 Rick Sutcliffe 103.01 Ross Grimsley 102.82 Mike Mussina 102.81 Mike Flanagan 102.71 Kevin Tapani 102.69 Larry Dierker 102.66 Jim Lonborg 102.62 Scott McGregor 102.62 Tom Seaver 102.58 Catfish Hunter 102.58 Doug Drabek 102.57 Don Sutton 102.53 Mickey Lolich 102.46 Billy Pierce 102.46 Schoolboy Rowe 102.46 Bruce Hurst 102.44 Marty Pattin 102.32 Ron Guidry 102.31 Larry Benton 102.29 Milt Pappas 102.28 Denny Galehouse 102.23 Johnny Podres 102.21 Doyle Alexander 102.20 Robin Roberts 102.16 Earl Wilson 102.16 Charlie Root 102.13 Dick Ruthven 102.12 Rick Rhoden 102.05 Virgil Trucks 101.99 Andy Benes 101.98 Johnny Vander Meer
The below table includes those players whose RATIO is one standard deviation below average. These players may be overrated based on *ERA+.
Ratio Name 92.52 Hoyt Wilhelm 93.76 Dutch Leonard 94.95 Dean Chance 95.45 Kevin Brown 95.98 Sonny Siebert 96.30 Thornton Lee 96.41 Tom Candiotti 96.47 Rick Honeycutt 96.47 Juan Marichal 96.52 Curt Simmons 96.58 Dock Ellis 96.58 Jim Kaat 96.78 Dizzy Trout 96.78 Wilbur Wood 96.90 Ted Lyons 96.92 Danny Jackson 96.97 Mike Caldwell 97.02 Greg Maddux 97.08 Rip Sewell 97.18 Jon Matlack 97.24 Phil Niekro 97.35 Claude Passeau 97.38 Fritz Peterson 97.45 Randy Johnson 97.48 Sid Hudson 97.49 Tommy John 97.52 Hal Newhouser 97.53 Bob Lemon 97.60 Charlie Hough 97.79 Ned Garver 97.95 Paul Splittorff 97.95 Kenny Rogers 97.99 Bob Rush 97.99 Al Downing
Conclusions (OK, these really aren't strong enough to be conclusions, just some thoughts.):
1) Lots of knuckleballers on the low RATIO list: Wilhelm, Candiotti, Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough, Wilbur Wood, Gaylord Perry just missed it by 0.08.
2) Borderline HOFers that get a favorable boost by looking at *RA+: Luis Tiant, Ron Guidry, and Lolich (I wouldn't consider him HOF-worthy but he was on the 2003 VC ballot).
3) Borderline HOFers that get an unfavorable shot by looking at *RA+: Jim Kaat and Tommy John.
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